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ISSN 1673-1719
CN 11-5368/P
   Table of Content
  30 July 2010, Volume 6 Issue 04 Previous Issue    Next Issue
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气候变化与人体健康专栏
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (04): 235-240.  
Abstract ( 3988 )   HTML (   PDF (4278KB) ( 2046 )  
This paper reviews the association between climate change and human health, with an emphasis on the impact of climate change on human health, including impact areas and pathways as well as adaptation measures. The scientific hypnosis and research priorities are analyzed in the field of the association of climate change with human health. Supporting strategies at national level, such as how to strengthen capacity building and institution building in this field are also put forward.
Advances on Impact of Climate Change on Human Health   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (04): 241-247.  
Abstract ( 4590 )   HTML (   PDF (4917KB) ( 2657 )  
Impacts of climate change on human health are reviewed, including heat wave, extreme climate, air pollution and sea level rise, with particular emphases on the vector-borne, water-borne, food-borne and respiratory infectious diseases, as well as chronic non-communicable diseases. Future research priorities on the relation between climate change and human health are also put forward.
Projection of the Transmission Scale and Intensity of Schistosomiasis in China Under A2 and B2 Climate Change Scenarios   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (04): 248-253.  
Abstract ( 3698 )   HTML (   PDF (4126KB) ( 1440 )  
The purpose of the investigation is to project the scale and intensity changes of schistosomiasis transmission in China, under the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios in the 2005s (1991-2005) , 2050s (2046-2050) and 2070s (2066-2070) , respectively, based on the integration of the PRECIS model and disease transmission models. Results show that the distributive boundary of schistosomiasis will be extended northward both in the 2050s and 2070s under the A2 and B2 scenarios, especially in Anhui and Jiangsu Province of east China. In the 2050s, the distributive boundaries are similar under the A2 and B2 scenarios, and the endemic areas are most distributed along large rivers and lakes where the schistosomiasis transmission index is higher than 1800. Particularly the transmission index is significantly high along the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake in the 2050s. Furthermore, the schistosomiasis transmission scale under the A2 scenario is larger than that under the B2 scenario in the 2070s, and parts of Shandong Province will become potential endemic areas. By comparing the two periods of the 2050s and 2070s, the spatial patterns of schistosomiasis transmission index are similar, while the schistosomiasis transmission index will increase significantly in the 2070s, especially under the A2 scenario. In conclusion, the transmission scale and intensity of schistosomiasis will change significantly under the A2 and B2 scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s, especially under A2 scenario, except that the adaptation measures are taken or the transmission of schistosomiasis is impacted by other environmental factors.
Risk Map for Dengue Fever Outbreaks Based on Meteorological Factors   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (04): 254-258.  
Abstract ( 3418 )   HTML (   PDF (2428KB) ( 1423 )  
The trend of global warming and the increase in imported cases were supposed to cause the reemerging and expanding of dengue fever (DF) in China. In this paper, the correlation coefficients between meteorological factors and the DF outbreaks in China were analyzed to detect the relationship between weather/climate factors and the outbreak of DF. DF outbreaks in Guangzhou, Fuzhou and Ningbo were selected to investigate the lag effect of weather factors on the outbreaks with the cross correlation analysis. Based on the temporal relationship of weather and DF outbreak, a risk map of DF outbreaks for China with suitable weather factors was drawn. Some weather variables are significantly correlated with the DF outbreaks, at a lagged time period of 8-10 weeks. The risk map demonstrates the risk areas with the climate suitable for the outbreak of DF in China, and coast areas of south and southeast China are included in the risk area.
Assessment Models for Impact of Climate Change on Vector-Borne Diseases Transmission   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (04): 259-264.  
Abstract ( 3469 )   HTML (   PDF (3834KB) ( 1616 )  
The purpose of this review is to introduce various models for assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases and their application in the future. The paper firstly analyzes the correlation between vector-borne diseases transmission and climate characteristics, and then reviews two categories of assessing models, i.e. deterministic and statistic models, which are exampled with the assessment of malaria, schistosomiasis and dengue fever transmitted diseases, respectively. Finally, future research priorities on the assessment models for vector-borne diseases are also given.
气候系统变化
Variation of Extreme Precipitation over Large River Basins in China   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (04): 265-269.  
Abstract ( 3872 )   HTML (   PDF (3623KB) ( 2176 )  
In this study, we chose ten major river basins in China as the study area, and defined southern and northern river-basin regions. The northern region includes the Songhua River, Liaohe River, Haihe River, Yellow River and Northwest China rivers, and the southern region contains the Huaihe River, Yangtze River, Pearl River, Southeast China rivers and Southwest China rivers. Variation characteristics of the nationwide-averaged maximum daily rainfall amount and heavy rain (daily rainfall amount≥50.0 mm) frequency over each river basin and the northern and southern regions were analyzed by using the daily precipitation data over China for the last 53 years of 1956-2008. Results indicate that maximum daily rainfall amount averaged over the entire country showed no obvious trend, but there were some differences between southern and northern river basins, with increasing trends over southern river basins but decreasing trends over northern river basins especially after 2001. The frequency of heavy rain displayed an indistinct increasing trend over the whole China, but exhibited an increasing trend in the southern river basins and a decreasing trend in the northern river basins. On the whole, more heavy rain occurred in the 1990s than in other decades, with the least heavy rain in the 1970s.
Projected Climate Change over China Under SRES A1B Scenario: Multi-model Ensemble and Uncertainties   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (04): 270-276.  
Abstract ( 5584 )   HTML (   PDF (4250KB) ( 3179 )  
Climate change over China in the middle 21st century is investigated based on the multi-model datasets of 20C3M and the SRES A1B scenario projection provided by CMIP3. The analysis shows that the precipitation will increase in most parts of China; the range of rainfall change is between -0.1 and 1.1 mm/d in summer, and between -0.2 and 0.2 mm/d in winter. Unfortunately, our analysis has revealed a large spread among the 23 models in future precipitation change projection. Uncertainties in the surface air temperature (TAS) change projection are far less than those in precipitation. The projected change range of TAS, in both summer and winter, is from 1.2 to 2.8℃, generally increasing with latitude. Projected change of East Asian monsoon under the SRES A1B scenario exhibits a strengthened trend in summer but a slightly weakened trend in winter; and the withdrawal of the East Asian summer monsoon rain-belt from its north-most position is about one month later than that in 20C3M.
Changes in Precipitation and Water Resources in Henan Province in 1956-2007   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (04): 277-283.  
Abstract ( 3135 )   HTML (   PDF (3972KB) ( 2008 )  
Based on the precipitation data of 103 meteorological stations and the water resource data of 18 provincial cities in Henan Province, the spatial distribution and change characteristics of precipitation and water resources in the whole province in 1956-2007 were analyzed, and the wet/dry years of precipitation and water resources were also assessed. The water resources were estimated from the precipitation data by using the linear correlation method and the water-producing coefficient method, respectively; and their precisions were compared and analyzed. The results indicate that: 1) the annual precipitation resource for the whole province showed an overally slowly decreasing trend with the rate of 2.32×108 m3/10a in recent 50 years; however, the precipitation resource is not spatially uniform, and it exhibited decreasing trends in north, west and central Henan Province, but increasing trends in the rest sub-regions of the province. 2) The total water resource for the whole province showed a decreasing trend with the rate of 10.85×108 m3/10a, which is larger than the decreasing rate of precipitation; it showed a slight decreasing trend in all sub-regions of the province, the reduction is the most obvious in west Henan, next in north Henan, and least in central Henan. The decadal change characteristics of water resource are basically similar to those of precipitation resource. 3) There appears a good relationship between total water resource and annual precipitation, and the mean error of the annual total water resource estimated from annual precipitation is about 10%-22%. The estimation error might be diminished if the water-producing coefficient method is used to anomalous high/low water flow years, the linear correlation method for other years, respectively.
气候变化影响
Impacts of Climate Change on Urban Agglomerations in Coastal Region of China   Collect
suo cheng dong
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (04): 284-289.  
Abstract ( 4393 )   HTML (   PDF (4548KB) ( 2575 )  
Climate changes and urbanization are two main factors making human beings more vulnerable to disasters, and the two factors superimpose with each other in urban agglomeration. Furthermore, population, industry and infrastructure are highly centralized in urban agglomerations, which would become the high-risk areas being vulnerable to disasters and easily suffering great losses. Five urban agglomerations in the coastal region of China have strong economic strength and are important engines for driving economic and social development. On the other hand, they are located in the interaction area of land and sea, and suffer from the double impacts of sea and land disasters. Moreover, the disaster-bearing bodies of five urban agglomerations are too big, and accordingly they easily suffer great losses under the background of climate changes. For the reason mentioned above, national related departments should fully realize the urgency of coping with the impacts of climate changes on urban agglomerations in the coastal region, put forward coping strategies as soon as possible, and take into account the impacts and adaptive measures in socio-economic development plans of the coastal urban areas.
温室气体排放
Environmental Impacts of Carbon Capture and Storage Technology and Some Suggestions   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (04): 290-295.  
Abstract ( 2921 )   HTML (   PDF (4303KB) ( 2289 )  
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is being discussed as a possible option to mitigate climate change, and many international organizations and developed countries pay great attention to it. However, the deployment of this technology on the one hand depends on many factors, such as developed countries?technology maturity, cost, and transfer, and developing countries?ability to apply the technology, related policies and laws etc. On the other hand its environmental impact and management is one of the important issues which attract so much attention. Therefore, this paper analyzes the potential environmental impacts and some guidelines of CCS in developed countries, and also provides some suggestions for China to develop the environmental impact management of CCS.
对策论坛
Key Issues and Strategy for Negotiation of Adaptation to Climate Change   Collect
Li Yue
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (04): 296-300.  
Abstract ( 3281 )   HTML (   PDF (3089KB) ( 1655 )  
This paper reviewed the negotiation progress on adaptation under the UNFCCC, analyzed the key issues and different groups?positions on enhanced adaptation actions, and proposed countermeasures for adaptation negotiation in future, taking into account the progresses made during the COP15.
Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate and Its Progress and Perspective   Collect
GAO Xiang
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (04): 301-306.  
Abstract ( 3293 )   HTML (   PDF (3967KB) ( 1434 )  
Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate (MEF) has made significant progress in achieving agreement on key global climate change issues, which shows its characters as the weatherglass for UN climate negotiation. However, the substance of MEF is for the developed countries to distract their greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation obligations and international pressure, thus reducing their cost for mitigation actions, by kidnapping the major developing countries, to promote the group-hegemony on global climate change issues. The hardcore of MEF is global emission mitigation, its aim is to create the global market for low-carbon and climate-friendly technologies, so that these major economies with advanced technology would expand the power of dominant position in the world. China should stand with the participating developing countries to insist on the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" to resist motions that would harm the sustainable development of developing countries from unfair base, such as capping for global GHG emission. Moreover, China should take hold of the chance that MEF is pushing on low-carbon development and low-carbon technologies, in order to make itself at the front of the new technology revolution.
Analysis on American Clean Energy and Security Act   Collect
Pan Jiahua;Chen Ying
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (04): 307-312.  
Abstract ( 4453 )   HTML (   PDF (4621KB) ( 8073 )  
American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACESA) was passed by the U. S. House of Representatives on June 26, 2009. The bill is the most important climate bill after Liberman-Wanner bill, which was rejected by the House of Senate last year. Contents of the bill may have profound impact on post 2012 international climate negotiation, so it has attracted extensive attention from the international community. In this paper, emission reduction targets, funding mechanisms and adaptation, technology transfer and other issues of the bill are summarized, and international cooperation, the carbon market and carbon tariff issues are also discussed based on the facts in the bill. As a multi-objective and comprehensive proposal addressing climate change by focusing on new energy and energy efficiency improvement actions, the bill is worth learning for facilitating China's transformation to a low carbon development model. At last, some judges and suggestions on how to recognize the bill are also proposed.
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