Climate Change Research ›› 2014, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (5): 365-369.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.05.008

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Projected Risk of Extreme Heat in China Based on CMIP5 Models

Dong Siyan1, 2, Xu Ying1, Zhou Botao1, 3, Hou Meiting4, Li Rouke1, Yu Li1, Zhang Yongxiang1   

  1. 1 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 
    2 Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 
    3 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 
    4 China     Meteorological Administration Training Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2014-02-20 Revised:2014-05-07 Online:2014-09-30 Published:2014-09-30

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Abstract: Based on the simulations from 22 CMIP5 models and in combination with the socio-economic data, the extreme heat risk change during the near term (2016-2035), medium term (2046-2065) and long term (2080-2099) were projected by quantitative estimation under RCP8.5. The results show that the extreme heat hazard risk will gradually increase during different terms in the future, and extreme heat risk will also tend to increase. Class III and above of the extreme heat risk will increase, especially in the northeast, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Guizhou, Fujian provinces (autonomous region). In Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Anhui provinces, Class V of the extreme heat risk tends to appear in the near term, and it will extend to Jiangsu, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Guangxi and Guangdong provinces (autonomous region) in the medium and long term.

Key words: RCP8.5 scenario, extreme heat risk, projection

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