Abstract: Based on the simulations from 22 CMIP5 models and in combination with the socio-economic data, the extreme heat risk change during the near term (2016-2035), medium term (2046-2065) and long term (2080-2099) were projected by quantitative estimation under RCP8.5. The results show that the extreme heat hazard risk will gradually increase during different terms in the future, and extreme heat risk will also tend to increase. Class III and above of the extreme heat risk will increase, especially in the northeast, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Guizhou, Fujian provinces (autonomous region). In Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Anhui provinces, Class V of the extreme heat risk tends to appear in the near term, and it will extend to Jiangsu, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Guangxi and Guangdong provinces (autonomous region) in the medium and long term.

Key words: RCP8.5 scenario, extreme heat risk, projection