Climate Change Research ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (4): 433-441.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.259

• Disaster Responses to Climate Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Research on the assessment of the multi-regional economic ripple effect caused by disasters—a case study of a flood disaster in Wuhan city on July 6, 2016

ZHANG Zheng-Tao1(), CUI Peng1,2,3(), LI Ning4,5, LIU Yuan4,5, ZOU Qiang2, HUANG Cheng-Fang4,5, WU Sheng-Nan1   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2 The Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences & Ministry of Water Conservancy, Chengdu 610041, China
    3 Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    4 Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    5 Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education & Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2019-11-11 Revised:2020-01-21 Online:2020-07-30 Published:2020-08-05
  • Contact: CUI Peng;


In order to quantitatively emphasize the importance of economic ripple effect, this paper further integrates the multi-regional module to develop a new assessment model based on the established dynamic indirect economic loss assessment model, and then quantitatively evaluates the economic ripple effect of Hubei province and China caused by a disaster—“2016.07.06 Wuhan Flood”. The results show that: (1) the economic ripple effect suffered by outside disaster area (2430 million CNY) is 28% of direct economic loss (8740 million CNY), which is 4.4 times of indirect economic loss (550 million CNY) suffered by disaster area Wuhan city. The economic ripple loss of Hubei province (except Wuhan city) and China (except Hubei province) is 1557 million CNY and 873 million CNY, respectively; (2) the manufacturing industry in the outside disaster area suffers the most economic ripple effect, including 652 million CNY in Hubei province (except Wuhan city) and 294 million CNY in China (except Hubei province), accounting for 42% and 34% of the total economic ripple losses, respectively. Other sectors with serious damages successively are agriculture, other services and construction, etc. It is recommended that the government policy makers keep focus on the economic ripple loss coming from other regions, formulate targeted loss reduction measures by recognizing the mechanism of loss generation, and carry out more scientific and comprehensive risk prevention and post-disaster recovery and reconstruction.

Key words: Disaster, Loss assessment, Economic ripple effect, Indirect economic loss

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