Temperature change on the Tibetan Plateau under the global warming of 1.5℃and 2℃

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.175

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the predicted results of 21 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the annual and seasonal variation characteristics of temperature were analyzed over the Tibetan Plateau (TP hereafter) at global warming threshold of 1.5℃ and2℃. The results show that, when global warming reaches 1.5℃ and 2℃, the warming of the TP are both more notable than global warming. The annual warming is high both in the west and southwest but low in the northeast, while spring warming and winter warming are high in the south but low in the north, and summer warming and autumn warming are both high in the west but low in the east from the spatial distribution, respectively. The increase of mean, maximum and minimum temperature is 2.11℃/2.10℃ and 2.96℃/2.85℃, 2.02℃/2.02℃ and 2.89℃/2.77℃, 2.34℃/2.34℃ and 3.20℃/3.14℃over the TP under RCP4.5/RCP8.5 scenario when the global warming reaches 1.5℃ and 2℃, respectively. Besides, the winter warming over the TP (2.19℃/2.31℃ and 3.13℃/3.05℃) is more remarkable than that of other seasons. There are also regional differences in temperature response at the same warming threshold over the TP under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The differences of annual and seasonal mean temperature between the two periods when global warming reaches 1.5℃ and 2℃ under two scenarios all exceed 0.5℃, with regional and seasonal differences.

Key words: Temperature variation, Tibetan Plateau (TP), Global warming 1.5℃ and 2℃

Fang-Ying WU,Qing-Long YOU,Wen-Xin XIE,Ling ZHANG. Temperature change on the Tibetan Plateau under the global warming of 1.5℃and 2℃[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(2): 130-139.

Figures/Tables 11

Table 1 Basic information of each model

模式名称	所属国家	模式分辨率
ACCESS1-0	澳大利亚	1.875°×1.25°
BCC-CSM1-1	中国	2.8125°×2.8125°
BNU-ESM	中国	2.8125°×2.8125°
CanESM2	加拿大	2.8125°×2.8125°
CCSM4	美国	1.875°×0.625°
CESMI-BGC	美国	1.875°×0.625°
CNRM-CM5	法国	1.4118°×1.4063°
CSIRO-MK3-6-0	澳大利亚	1.875°×1.875°
GFDL-CM3	美国	2.5°×2°
GFDL-ESM2G	美国	2.5°×2°
GFDL-ESM2M	美国	2.5°×2°
INMCM4	俄罗斯	2°×2.5°
IPSL-CM5A-LR	法国	3.75°×1.875°
IPSL-CM5A-MR	法国	2.5°×1.2587°
MIROC5	日本	1.4063°×1.4063°
MIROC-ESM-CHEM	日本	2.8125°×2.8125°
MIROC-ESM	日本	2.8125°×2.8125°
MPI-ESM-LR	德国	1.875°×1.875°
MPI-ESM-MR	德国	1.875°×1.875°
MRI-CGCM3	日本	1.125°×1.125°
NorESM1-M	挪威	2.5°×1.875°

Fig. 1 Variation distribution of annual mean, maximum, minimum temperature on the Tibetan Plateau when global warming reaches 1.5℃ under two RCP scenarios. The difference between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 is also shown

Fig. 2 Variation distribution of annual mean, maximum, minimum temperature on the Tibetan Plateau when global warming reaches 2℃ under two RCP scenarios. The difference between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 is also shown

Fig. 3 Time series of changes in annual mean, maximum, minimum temperature on the Tibetan Plateau under two RCP scenarios

Table 2 Changes in regional mean of annual mean, maximum, minimum temperature on the Tibetan Plateau at global warming of 1.5℃ and 2℃ under two RCP scenarios

参数	RCP4.5		RCP8.5
参数	1.5℃	2℃	1.5℃	2℃
平均气温	2.11	2.96	2.10	2.85
最高气温	2.02	2.89	2.02	2.77
最低气温	2.34	3.20	2.34	3.14

Fig. 4 Variation distribution of spring (MAM), summer (JJA), autumn (SON), and winter (DJF) mean temperature on the Tibetan Plateau when global warming reaches 1.5℃ under two RCP scenarios. The difference between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 is also shown

Fig. 5 Variation distribution of spring (MAM), summer (JJA), autumn (SON), and winter (DJF) mean temperature on the Tibetan Plateau when global warming reaches 2℃under two RCP scenarios. The difference between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 is also shown

Fig. 6 Time series of changes in spring, summer, autumn, winter mean temperature on the Tibetan Plateau under two RCP scenarios

Table 3 Changes in regional mean of spring, summer, autumn, winter mean temperature on the Tibetan Plateau at global warming of 1.5℃ and 2℃ under two RCP scenarios ℃

时段	RCP4.5		RCP8.5
时段	1.5℃	2℃	1.5℃	2℃
春季	2.02	2.92	2.13	2.87
夏季	1.90	2.63	1.85	2.55
秋季	2.05	2.86	2.03	2.81
冬季	2.19	3.13	2.31	3.05

Fig. 7 Differences of annual (a) and spring (b), summer (c), autumn (d), winter (e) mean temperature on the Tibetan when global warming reaches 2℃ and 1.5℃ under RCP4.5 scenario

Fig. 8 Noise-signal ratio on the Tibetan Plateau when global warming reaches 1.5℃under RCP4.5 scenario

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