Climate Change Research ›› 2019, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (2): 130-139.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.175

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Temperature change on the Tibetan Plateau under the global warming of 1.5℃and 2℃

Fang-Ying WU1,Qing-Long YOU1,2(),Wen-Xin XIE1,Ling ZHANG1   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing 210044, China
    2 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China;
  • Received:2018-12-04 Revised:2018-12-13 Online:2019-03-30 Published:2019-03-30


Based on the predicted results of 21 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the annual and seasonal variation characteristics of temperature were analyzed over the Tibetan Plateau (TP hereafter) at global warming threshold of 1.5℃ and2℃. The results show that, when global warming reaches 1.5℃ and 2℃, the warming of the TP are both more notable than global warming. The annual warming is high both in the west and southwest but low in the northeast, while spring warming and winter warming are high in the south but low in the north, and summer warming and autumn warming are both high in the west but low in the east from the spatial distribution, respectively. The increase of mean, maximum and minimum temperature is 2.11℃/2.10℃ and 2.96℃/2.85℃, 2.02℃/2.02℃ and 2.89℃/2.77℃, 2.34℃/2.34℃ and 3.20℃/3.14℃over the TP under RCP4.5/RCP8.5 scenario when the global warming reaches 1.5℃ and 2℃, respectively. Besides, the winter warming over the TP (2.19℃/2.31℃ and 3.13℃/3.05℃) is more remarkable than that of other seasons. There are also regional differences in temperature response at the same warming threshold over the TP under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The differences of annual and seasonal mean temperature between the two periods when global warming reaches 1.5℃ and 2℃ under two scenarios all exceed 0.5℃, with regional and seasonal differences.

Key words: Temperature variation, Tibetan Plateau (TP), Global warming 1.5℃ and 2℃

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