Abstract:

Current studies show the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement will lead to an increase of 1.2 Gt CO₂-eq in its own emission by 2025. However, the effect of the U.S.’s withdraw does not limit to the effect on its own emission, but also have impacts on global emission through indirect impacts such as financial effect, political effect and inertia effect. In this study, various global emission scenarios were built to model the different effects caused by the U.S.’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. The results show that the self-effects, financial effects, political effects on umbrella countries, and political effects on developing countries will lead to an increase in net global greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions by 2.0, 1.0, 1.0 and 1.9 Gt CO₂-eq, respectively in 2030, and will lead to an increase in 2100 cumulative GHGs emissions by 246.9, 145.3, 102.0 and 270.2 Gt CO₂-eq, respectively. To manage the negative impact of the U.S.’s withdrawal, China should take the lead actively on the establishment and development of global climate governance, cooperate with other countries closely to promote the implementation of the Paris Agreement in a comprehensive and balanced manner.

Key words: The U.S., The Paris Agreement, Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions, Political effect, Financial effect, Inertial effect