Abstract:

The changes of chilling injury events on China’s rubber during 2031-2060 were analysed by spatial analyst with historical meteorological data in 1981-2010, future climate scenarios, industry standard of Rubber Chilling Grade (QX/T 169-2012). Future climate scenarios were HadGEM2-ES simulation with RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emission pathways. The results show that the chilling injury events of rubber plantation would decrease in 2031-2060 under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the sub suitable area (III) and the part suitable area (IV) would more highlight, and would move toward higher level suitable area. The latitude of chilling injury center was located from 22.5°N to 23.5°N during 1981-2010, and might move northward in both the RCP2.6 (24.0°-24.5°N) and the RCP8.5 (23.5°-24.0°N). The chilling injury events would reduce in future scenarios compare with the baseline, except Yunnan rubber plantation. There might be differences between two RCPs for Yunnan rubber plantation in the future, because in the RCP2.6 light and severe chilling injury would decrease, medium and heavy chilling injury would increase; but in the RCP8.5 light and heavy chilling injury would decrease, medium and severe chilling injury would increase. The research results can be valuable for defense of chilling injury on China’s rubber and layout of rubber planting in the future. The RCP2.6, comparing the changes of the two RCPs over the baseline, would have more impact on light and sever chilling injury of rubber than RCP8.5, and would have less impact on medium and heavy chilling injury of rubber than RCP8.5.

Key words: Future climate change, Rubber tree, Chilling injury, Spatio-temporal change