Research on peaking carbon emissions of power sector in China and the emissions mitigation analysis

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.075

Abstract

Abstract:

The power sector is a major carbon emissions source from fossil fuel combustion, and it plays an important role in controlling China’s emissions and achieving emissions peak target. In this paper, learning curve tool is used to evaluate the development of wind power and solar PV power as the two most promising renewable sources, while bottom up calculating method is used to analyze other technologies’ developments under current policy scenario and enhanced policy scenario. The carbon emissions under two policy scenarios are calculated before 2035, and it is found that carbon emissions peak around 2030 with non-fossil fuels accounting for 44% in total power generation under current policy scenario, while they peak before 2025 with non-fossil fuels taking a higher share of 51% at 2030 under enhanced polices. The developments of renewables are major drivers lowering the emissions from power sector, contributing 45%, 54% and 62% of the total emission reductions at 2025, 2030 and 2035 respectively. On the other hand, though the coal power capacity still sees room to grow from the perspective of safeguarding the power supply, it is still necessary to enhance the control on coal power capacity and make best efforts to keep it under 1100 GW.

Key words: Power sector, Learning curve tool, Peaking carbon emission, Carbon mitigation

CHEN Yi, TIAN Chuan, CAO Ying, LIU Qiang, ZHENG Xiao-Qi. Research on peaking carbon emissions of power sector in China and the emissions mitigation analysis[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(5): 632-640.

Figures/Tables 9

Table 1 Major power sector policies considered in two scenarios

Fig. 1 Framework of the analysis model of power sector

Table 2 Policies affecting the stimulation factor (FA,pt) determining the saturation level of wind and solar PV

Table 3 Policies affecting the stimulation factor (FD,pt) determining the take-up speed of wind and solar PV

Fig. 2 The share of wind and solar PV in power generation under two scenarios

Fig. 3 Power generation by fuel source under two scenarios

Fig. 4 Coal power generation and coal power capacity under two scenarios

Fig. 5 Carbon emissions and carbon intensity of electricity under two scenarios

Fig. 6 The contribution of renewable power development to emissions mitigation under two scenarios

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