Evaluation of the carbon emission reduction effect of China’s pilot ETSs: analysis based on the data of energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors by province

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.238

Abstract

Abstract:

Existing studies evaluating the carbon emission reduction effect of China’s pilot emissions trading schemes (ETSs) suffer a common problem that the sample selection range of the treatment group is obviously larger than the actual coverage of pilot ETSs. Stricter criteria have been applied in identifying the research samples in this study: within the six energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors in China’s provinces from 2005 to 2017, only those in which the volume of ETS-covered enterprises accounts for 60% or more of the sub-sectors’ total are regarded as the treatment group, and all industrial sub-sectors in non-pilot provinces are the control group. Based on the difference-in-difference method, it is found that compared to the control group, China’s pilot ETSs have reduced not only the carbon emissions of the sub-sectors in the treatment group, but also their carbon intensities, demonstrating the mitigation effectiveness of China’s pilot ETSs. The gross output value and per capita output value of the industrial sub-sectors show to some extent a Kuznets curve effect with carbon emissions and carbon intensity, respectively; higher degree of asset liquidity and the profitability and tighter of environmental regulations is conducive to carbon emission reductions. It is thus essential that more sectors other than the power generation will be covered by China’s national ETS as soon as possible. In addition, more efforts should be made to disclose system design and operation data for the purpose of assessing the scheme performance more effectively and in a more transparently manner.

Key words: Emissions trading schemes (ETSs), Carbon emission reduction effect, Difference-in-difference, Industrial sub-sectors

ZHANG Hai-Jun, DUAN Mao-Sheng. Evaluation of the carbon emission reduction effect of China’s pilot ETSs: analysis based on the data of energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors by province[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(5): 579-589.

Figures/Tables 7

Table 1 Shares of enterprises covered by 6 pilot ETSs in energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors

Table 2 Descriptive summary

Table 3 Impact of pilot ETSs on carbon emissions of sub-industrial sectors in the treatment group

Table 4 Impact of pilot ETSs on carbon intensity of sub-industrial sectors in the treatment group

Table 5 Test of the parallel trend assumption

Table 6 Results of changed time windows

Table 7 Other robustness checks

References 50

[1]	生态环境部. 中国应对气候变化的政策与行动2018年度报告[EB/OL]. 2018 [2021-03-02]. http://www.mee.gov.cn/ywgz/ydqhbh/qhbhlf/201811/P020181129539211385741.pdf.
	Ministry of Ecology and Environment. China’s policies and actions to address climate change 2018 annual report[EB/OL]. 2018 [2021-03-02]. http://www.mee.gov.cn/ywgz/ydqhbh/qhbhlf/201811/P020181129539211385741.pdf(in Chinese)
[2]	Munnings C, Morgenstern R D, Wang Z, et al. Assessing the design of three carbon trading pilot programs in China[J]. Energy Policy, 2016, 96:688-699 doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.06.015 URL
[3]	Laing T, Sato M, Grubb M, et al. The effects and side-effects of the EU emissions trading scheme[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2014, 5(4):509-519 doi: 10.1002/wcc.2014.5.issue-4 URL
[4]	Ellerman A D, Buchner B K. Over-allocation or abatement? A preliminary analysis of the EU ETS based on the 2005-06 emissions data[J]. Environmental & Resource Economics, 2008, 41(2):267-287
[5]	Anderson B, Di Maria C. Abatement and allocation in the pilot phase of the EU ETS[J]. Environmental & Resource Economics, 2011, 48(1):83-103
[6]	Egenhofer C, Alessi M, Georgiev A, et al. The EU emissions trading system. The EU emissions trading system and climate policy towards 2050: real incentives to reduce emissions and drive innovation?[R/OL]. 2011 [2021-03-03]. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1756736
[7]	Ellerman A D, Convery F J, de Perthuis C. Pricing carbon: the European emissions trading scheme [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010
[8]	Petrick S, Wagner U J. The impact of carbon trading on industry: evidence from German manufacturing firms[EB/OL]. 2014 [2021-03-03]. http://hdl.handle.net/10419/94357
[9]	Klemetsen M E, Rosendahl K E, Jakobsen A L. The impacts of the EU ETS on Norwegian plants’ environmental and economic performance[R/OL]. 2016 [2021-03-03]. https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/ssbdispap/833.htm
[10]	Jaraitė J, Di Maria C. Did the EU ETS make a difference an empirical assessment using Lithuanian firm-level data[EB/OL]. 2014 [2021-03-03]. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2382663
[11]	Wagner U J, Muûls M, Martin R, et al. The causal effects of the European Union emissions trading scheme: evidence from French manufacturing plants[C]. Boon: Labor Market Effects of Environmental Policies, September, 2014
[12]	Abrell J, Faye A N, Zachmann G. Assessing the impact of the EU ETS using firm level data[EB/OL]. 2011 [2021-03-03]. https://www.bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/imported/publications/WP_2011_08_ETS_01.pdf
[13]	Bel G, Joseph S. Emission abatement: untangling the impacts of the EU ETS and the economic crisis[J]. Energy Economics, 2015, 49:531-539 doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.014 URL
[14]	Widerberg A, Wråke M. The impact of the EU emissions trading system on CO₂ intensity in electricity generation[J]. Energy Studies Review, 2011, 18(2):64-83
[15]	沈洪涛, 黄楠, 刘浪. 碳排放权交易的微观效果及机制研究[J]. 厦门大学学报: 哲学社会科学版, 2017 (1):13-22.
	Shen H T, Huang N, Liu L. A study of the micro-effect and mechanism of the carbon emission trading scheme[J]. Journal of Xiamen University: Arts & Social Sciences, 2017 (1):13-22 (in Chinese)
[16]	Zhang Y J, Peng Y L, Ma C Q, et al. Can environmental innovation facilitate carbon emissions reduction? Evidence from China[J]. Energy Policy, 2017, 100:18-28 doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.10.005 URL
[17]	黄向岚, 张训常, 刘晔. 我国碳交易政策实现环境红利了吗?[J]. 经济评论, 2018 (6):86-99.
	Huang X L, Zhang X C, Liu Y. Does China’s carbon emissions trading policy fulfill the environmental dividend?[J]. Economic Review, 2018 (6):86-99 (in Chinese)
[18]	Dong F, Dai Y J, Zhang S N, et al. Can a carbon emission trading scheme generate the Porter effect? Evidence from pilot areas in China[J]. Science of The Total Environment, 2019, 653:565-577 doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.395 URL
[19]	Chen S, Shi A, Wang X. Carbon emission curbing effects and influencing mechanisms of China’s emission trading scheme: the mediating roles of technique effect, composition effect and allocation effect[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020, 264:121700 doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121700 URL
[20]	Zhou B, Zhang C, Song H Y, et al. How does emission trading reduce China’s carbon intensity? An exploration using a decomposition and difference-in-differences approach[J]. Science of The Total Environment, 2019, 676:514-523 doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.303
[21]	李广明, 张维洁. 中国碳交易下的工业碳排放与减排机制研究[J]. 中国人口∙资源与环境, 2017, 27(10):141-148.
	Li G M, Zhang W J. Research on industrial carbon emissions and emissions reduction mechanism in China’s ETS[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2017, 27(10):141-148 (in Chinese)
[22]	Yang X Y, Jiang P, Pan Y. Does China’s carbon emission trading policy have an employment double dividend and a Porter effect?[J]. Energy Policy, 2020, 142:111492 doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111492 URL
[23]	Zhang W J, Zhang N, Yu Y N. Carbon mitigation effects and potential cost savings from carbon emissions trading in China’s regional industry[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2019, 141:1-11 doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.12.014 URL
[24]	范丹, 王维国, 梁佩凤. 中国碳排放交易权机制的政策效果分析: 基于双重差分模型的估计[J]. 中国环境科学, 2017, 37(6):2383-2392.
	Fan D, Wang W G, Liang P F. Analysis of the performance of carbon emissions trading right in China: the evaluation based on the difference-in-difference model[J]. China Environment Science, 2017, 37(6):2383-2392 (in Chinese)
[25]	Hu Y C, Ren S G, Wang Y J, et al. Can carbon emission trading scheme achieve energy conservation and emission reduction? Evidence from the industrial sector in China[J]. Energy Economics, 2020, 85:104590 doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104590 URL
[26]	Zhang H J, Duan M S, Deng Z. Have China’s pilot emissions trading schemes promoted carbon emission reductions? The evidence from industrial sub-sectors at the provincial level[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, 234:912-924 doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.06.247 URL
[27]	张海军, 段茂盛. 碳排放权交易体系政策效果的评估方法[J]. 中国人口∙资源与环境, 2020, 30(5):17-25.
	Zhang H J, Duan M S. The methods of evaluating the impact of carbon emissions trading scheme[J]. China Population, Resource and Environment, 2020, 30(5):17-25 (in Chinese)
[28]	Shan Y L, Guan D B, Zheng H R, et al. China CO₂ emission accounts 1997-2015[J]. Scientific Data, 2018, 5:170201 doi: 10.1038/sdata.2017.201 URL
[29]	Zheng J L, Mi Z F, Coffman D M, et al. Regional development and carbon emissions in China[J]. Energy Economics, 2019, 81:25-36 doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.03.003 URL
[30]	Guan D B, Shan Y L, Liu Z, et al. Performance assessment and outlook of China’s emission-trading scheme[J]. Engineering, 2016, 2(4):398-401 doi: 10.1016/J.ENG.2016.04.016 URL
[31]	Su B, Ang B W. Multiplicative decomposition of aggregate carbon intensity change using input-output analysis[J]. Applied Energy, 2015, 154:13-20 doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.04.101 URL
[32]	Gazheli A, van den Bergh J, Antal M. How realistic is green growth? Sectoral-level carbon intensity versus productivity[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2016, 129:449-467 doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.04.032 URL
[33]	Duan Y, Mu H L, Li N. Analysis of the relationship between China’s IPPU CO₂ emissions and the industrial economic growth[J]. Sustainability. 2016, 8(5):426 doi: 10.3390/su8050426 URL
[34]	Shao S, Yang L L, Yu M B, et al. Estimation, characteristics, and determinants of energy-related industrial CO₂ emissions in Shanghai (China), 1994-2009[J]. Energy Policy, 2011, 39(10):6476-6494 doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.07.049 URL
[35]	杨小林, 李义玲. 长江流域水污染事故时空特征及其环境库兹涅茨曲线检验[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2015 (2):288-291.
	Yang X L, Li Y L. Spatio-temporal characteristics of water pollution accidents and the verification of environmental Kuznets curve in Yangtze River basin[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2015 (2):288-291 (in Chinese)
[36]	Atasoy B S. Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypojournal across the U.S.: evidence from panel mean group estimators[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017, 77:731-747 doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2017.04.050 URL
[37]	Burnett J W, Bergstorm J C, Wetzstein M E. Carbon dioxide emission and economic growth in the US[J]. Journal of Policy Modeling, 2013, 35(6):1014-1028 doi: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2013.08.001 URL
[38]	Li T T, Wang Y, Zhao D T. Environmental Kuznets curve in China: new evidence from dynamic panel analysis[J]. Energy Policy, 2016, 91:138-147 doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.01.002 URL
[39]	Liu X L, Cheng P. National strategy of indigenous innovation and its implication to China[J]. Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy, 2014, 3(1):117-139 doi: 10.7545/ajip.2014.3.1.117 URL
[40]	Zhou K Z, Gao G Y, Zhao H. State ownership and firm innovation in China: an integrated view of institutional and efficiency logics[J]. Administrative Science Quarterly, 2017, 62(2):375-404 doi: 10.1177/0001839216674457 URL
[41]	Jefferson G H, Bai H, Guan X, et al. R&D performance in Chinese industry[J]. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 2006, 15:345-366 doi: 10.1080/10438590500512851 URL
[42]	Liu W L, Wang Z H. The effects of climate policy on corporate technological upgrading in energy intensive industries: evidence from China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 142:3748-3758 doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.10.090 URL
[43]	仇云杰, 魏炜. 研发投入对企业绩效的影响: 基于倾向得分匹配法的研究[J]. 当代财经, 2016 (3):96-106.
	Qiu Y J, Wei W. The impact of R&D investment on firm performance: research based on propensity score matching[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2016 (3):96-106 (in Chinese)
[44]	Li C. How does environmental regulation affect different approaches of technical progress? Evidence from China’s industrial sectors from 2005 to 2015[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, 209:572-580 doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.10.235 URL
[45]	Wang Y, Sun X H, Guo X. Environmental regulation and green productivity growth: empirical evidence on the porter hypojournal from OECD industrial sectors[J]. Energy Policy, 2019, 132:611-619 doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.06.016
[46]	熊波, 杨碧云. 命令控制型环境政策改善了中国城市环境质量吗? 来自“两控区”政策的“准自然实验”[J]. 中国地质大学学报: 社会科学版, 2019, 19(3):63-74.
	Xiong B, Yang B Y. Does the command and control environmental strategy improved the quality of China’s urban environment? The “Quasi-natural Experiment” from TCZ policy[J]. Journal of China University of Geosciences: Social Sciences Edition, 2019, 19(3):63-74 (in Chinese)
[47]	齐绍洲, 徐佳. 环境规制与制造业低碳国际竞争力: 基于二十国集团“波特假说”的再检验[J]. 武汉大学学报: 哲学社会科学版, 2018, 71(1):132-144.
	Qi S Z, Xu J. Environmental regulation and low-carbon international competitiveness of manufacturing industries: “Porter Hypojournal” re-examination of G20 countries[J]. Wuhan University Journal: Philosophy & Social Science, 2018, 71(1):132-144 (in Chinese)
[48]	陈诗一. 能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与中国工业的可持续发展[J]. 经济研究, 2009, 44(4):41-55.
	Chen S Y. Energy consumption, CO₂ emission and sustainable development in Chinese industry[J]. Economic Research, 2009, 44(4):41-55 (in Chinese)
[49]	梅林海, 朱韵琴. 排污权交易政策能否改善环境质量?[J]. 生态经济, 2019, 35(2):180-186.
	Mei L H, Zhu Y Q. Does the pollution rights trading policy improve the environmental quality?[J]. Ecological Economy, 2019, 35(2):180-186 (in Chinese)
[50]	Zhu J M, Fan Y C, Deng X H, et al. Low-carbon innovation induced by emissions trading in China[J]. Nature Communications, 2019, 10:4088 doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-12213-6 URL