Verification and preliminary correction of the precipitation prediction in the pre-flood season over Fujian province by BCC_CSM1.1m climate model

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.061

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the re-forecast and operational data from the second-generation seasonal prediction model of Beijing Climate Center (BCC_CSM1.1m), and the monthly observational precipitation of 66 stations over Fujian province in 1991-2017, the precipitation prediction ability of the Model during the pre-flood season at different lead time was assessed. The metrics of verification used in this study were anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), temporal correlation coefficient (TCC), mean square skill score (MSSS) and the prediction score (Ps). The system bias correction (BC), the linear regression (LR) and Empirical Orthogonal Function-analogue correction were used to revise the forecast. Results show that: (1) Although there is always a systematic negative bias in the prediction of the climatological precipitation for the pre-flood season over Fujian province at different leading time, the Model can predict the first and second typical modes of the precipitation in the pre-flood period: the uniform distribution in the whole province and the decrease from south to north; (2) The inter-annual variation of ACC skill and Ps scores of the precipitation prediction are prominent, and the MSSS scores are negative due to the systematic negative bias. The high TCC skill can be found in the northern Fujian province; (3) The prediction ability of the model for precipitation improved significantly after being corrected. The average Ps scores in 2011-2017 are 5.9, 3.5, 6.7 and 7.8 points higher than the raw ensemble at LM2 (leading two months) after the BC, LR, EOFL and EOFNL correction, respectively. The average ACC skill scores in 2011-2017 are 0.02, 0.21, 0.12 and 0.11 points higher than raw predictions after the LR correction. There are significant improvements of MSSS scores for the four correction methods, of which the bias correction and the linear regression correction receive positive techniques; (4) In general, the linear regression correction shows more advantages than the other three correction methods.

Key words: Precipitation prediction, Verification, Statistical correction, BCC_CSM1.1m

CHI Yan-Zhen, LIANG Xiao-Yun, HE Fen, WU Wei-Jie, TANG Zhen-Fei. Verification and preliminary correction of the precipitation prediction in the pre-flood season over Fujian province by BCC_CSM1.1m climate model[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(6): 714-724.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1 Rainfall in pre-flood season over Fujian province from observations (a) and BCC_CSM1.1m predictions during 1991-2010

Fig. 2 Spatial distributions of the first (EOF1, left column), second (EOF2, middle column) and third (EOF3, right column) EOF modes from observations (a-c) and BCC_CSM1.1m predictions (d-f) at LM0 during 1991-2010

Fig. 3 Spatial distributions of the mean absolute error (MAE, a-d), root mean square error (RMSE, e-h) and the domain-averaged (i) at different lead time predictions during 1991-2017

Fig. 4 Time series of anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) at different lead time predictions during 1991-2017

Fig. 5 Same as Fig. 4, but for Ps skill

Fig. 6 Spatial distributions of the temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) at different lead time predictions during 1991-2017 (shading denotes the confidence above 90%)

Fig. 7 Same as Fig. 6, but for the mean square skill score and its components at LM0 prediction

Fig. 8 Same as Fig. 4, but for the ACC skill of raw ensemble prediction and error corrections at LM0

Fig. 9 Same as Fig. 8, but for Ps skill at LM2

Fig. 10 Same as Fig. 6, but for four corrections at LM0

Fig. 11 Same as the Fig. 10, but for MSSS at LM0

References 38

[1]	张淑惠, 沈思法. 前汛期福建最后一场强降水分析[J]. 气象, 1997,23(11):42-45.
	Zhang S H, Shen S F. A last severe precipitation pre-flood season in Fujian[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 1997,23(11):42-45 (in Chinese)
[2]	许金镜, 温珍治, 肖再勉, 等. 福建雨季降水异常的特征分析[J]. 海洋预报, 2002,19(4):52-59.
	Xu J J, Wen Z Z, Xiao Z M, et al. Analysis of features of anomalous precipitation during rainy season in Fujian province[J]. Marine Forecast, 2002,19(4):52-59 (in Chinese)
[3]	蔡学湛, 吴滨, 温珍治. 青藏高原雪盖异常对福建雨季旱涝影响的环流诊断[J]. 南京气象学院学报, 2002,25(6):800-807.
	Cai X Z, Wu B, Wen Z Z. Influence of abnormal snow covers over the Tibetan Plateau on droughts and floods in rainy season in Fujian[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 2002,25(6):800-807 (in Chinese)
[4]	邹燕, 何金海, 邱章奴, 等. 副高及其南侧偏东气流输送在福建前汛期降水中的作用[J]. 热带气象学报, 2006,22(5):515-520.
	Zou Y, He J H, Qiu Z N, et al. Relationships between the intensity and SW stream of the sub-tropical high over West Pacific and May-June rainfall in Fujian[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2006,22(5):515-520 (in Chinese)
[5]	高建芸, 陈彩珠, 周信禹. 2010年福建前汛期典型持续性暴雨过程的低频特征分析[J]. 气象科技进展, 2013,3(1):39-45.
	Gao J Y, Chen C Z, Zhou X Y, et al. Analysis of low-frequency features on typical persistent heavy rainfall during pre-flood season in Fujian province in 2010[J]. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 2013,3(1):39-45 (in Chinese)
[6]	林昕, 高建芸, 张容焱, 等. 基于定量化指标的福建前汛期降水强度特征分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2014,33(3):297-303.
	Lin X, Gao J Y, Zhang R Y, et al. Analysis of rainfall intensity features based on quantitative evaluation index during pre-flood season over Fujian province[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2014,33(3):297-303 (in Chinese)
[7]	陈彩珠, 高建芸, 黄丽娜, 等. 大气低频变化对福建前汛期典型持续性暴雨影响[J]. 应用气象学报, 2016,27(1):75-84.
	Chen C Z, Gao J Y, Huang L N, et al. Effects of atmospheric low-frequency variation on typical persistent heavy rains during pre-flood season in Fujian[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2016,27(1):75-84 (in Chinese)
[8]	刘长征, 杜良敏, 柯宗建, 等. 国家气候中心多模式解释应用集成预测[J]. 应用气象学报, 2013,24(6):677-685.
	Liu C Z, Du L M, Ke Z J, et al. Multi-model downscaling ensemble prediction in National Climate Center[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2013,24(6):677-685 (in Chinese)
[9]	任宏利, 丑纪范. 统计-动力相结合的相似误差订正法[J]. 气象学报, 2005,63(6):988-993.
	Ren H L, Chou J F. Analogue correction method of errors by combining both statistical and dynamical methods together[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2005,63(6):988-993 (in Chinese)
[10]	封国林, 赵俊虎, 支蓉, 等. 动力统计客观定量化汛期降水预测研究新进展[J]. 应用气象学报, 2013,24(6):656-665.
	Feng G L, Zhao J H, Zhi R, et al. Recent progress on the objective and quantifiable forecast of summer precipitation based on dynamical-statistical method[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2013,24(6):656-665 (in Chinese)
[11]	龚志强, 赵俊虎, 封国林, 等. 基于年代际突变分量的东亚夏季降水动力-统计预报方案研究[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2015,45(2):236-252.
	Gong Z Q, Zhao J H, Feng G L, et al. Dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme based on the abrupt decadal change component of summer precipitation in East Asia[J]. Science China: Earth Sciences, 2015,58:404-419. DOI: 10.1007/s11430-014-4967-4 (in Chinese)
[12]	赵俊虎, 杨杰, 龚志强, 等. 2013年中国夏季降水动力-统计气候预测及检验分析探讨[J]. 气象科技进展, 2015,5(2):24-28.
	Zhao J H, Yang J, Gong Z Q, et al. Analysis of and discussion about dynamic-statistical climate prediction for summer rainfall of 2013 in China[J]. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 2015,5(2):24-28 (in Chinese)
[13]	陈伯民, 信飞, 沈愈, 等. 月内重要天气过程与气候趋势预测系统及应用进展[J]. 气象科技进展, 2013,3(1):46-51.
	Chen B M, Xin F, Shen Y, et al. Monthly anomaly and weather process forecast system and its application[J]. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 2013,3(1):46-51 (in Chinese)
[14]	陈伯民, 梁萍, 信飞, 等. 延伸期过程预报预测技术及应用[J]. 气象科技进展, 2017,7(6):82-91.
	Chen B M, Liang P, Xin F, et al. The extended-range process prediction technique and application[J]. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 2017,7(6):82-91 (in Chinese)
[15]	池艳珍, 何芬, 唐振飞. 2016年登陆和影响福建台风成因分析及预测[J]. 气象, 2017,43(10):1287-1295.
	Chi Y Z, He F, Tang Z F. Cause analysis and forecast assessment on typhoon landing and impacting Fujian in 2016[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2017,43(10):1287-1295 (in Chinese)
[16]	辛晓歌, 吴统文, 张洁. BCC气候系统模式开展的CMIP5试验介绍[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2012,8(5):378-382.
	Xin X G, Wu T W, Zhang J. Introduction of CMIP5 experiments carried out by BCC Climate System Model[J]. Climate Change Research, 2012,8(5):378-382 (in Chinese)
[17]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F, et al. The Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model: description and its performance for the present-day climate[J]. Climate Dynamic, 2010,34(1):123-147
[18]	Ji J J, Huang M, Li K R. Prediction of carbon exchanges between China terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere in 21st century[J]. Science in China Series D: Earth Science, 2008,51(6):885-898
[19]	Murray R J. Explicit generation of orthogonal grids for ocean models[J]. Journal of Computational Physics, 1996,126(2):251-273
[20]	Winton M. A reformulated three-layer sea ice model[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2000,17(4):525-531
[21]	郭渠, 刘向文, 吴统文, 等. 基于BCC_CSM模式的中国东部夏季降水预测检验及订正[J]. 大气科学, 2017,41(1):71-90. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1602.15280.
	Guo Q, Liu X W, Wu T W, et al. Verification and correction of East China summer rainfall prediction based on BCC_CSM[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017,41(1):71-90. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1602.15280 (in Chinese)
[22]	吴统文, 宋连春, 刘向文, 等. 国家气候中心短期气候预测模式系统业务化进展[J]. 应用气象学报, 2013,24(5):533-543.
	Wu T W, Song L C, Liu X W, et al. Progress in developing the short-range operational climate prediction system of China National Climate Center[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2013,24(5):533-543 (in Chinese)
[23]	任宏利, 吴捷, 刘颖, 等. BCC二代季节预测模式历史回报性能综合检验评估报告[C]. 北京: 国家气候中心, 2015.
	Ren H L, Wu J, Liu Y, et al. Evaluation report of hindcast prediction ability of BCC second-generation seasonal forecast model[C]. Beijing: National Climate Center, 2015 (in Chinese)
[24]	Liu X W, Wu T W, Yang S, et al. Relationships between interannual and intraseasonal variations of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon hindcasted by BCC_CSM1.1(m)[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2014,31(5):1051-1064
[25]	Liu X W, Wu T W, Yang S, et al. Performance of the seasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m)[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2015,32(8):1156-1172
[26]	Ren H L, Wu J, Zhao C B, et al. MJO ensemble prediction in BCC-CSM1.1(m) using different initialization schemes[J]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2016,9(1):60-65
[27]	魏麟骁, 辛晓歌, 程炳岩, 等. BCC_CSM1.1气候模式年代际试验对中国气候的回报能力评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2016,12(4):294-302.
	Wei L X, Xin X G, Cheng B Y, et al. Hindcast of China climate with decadal experiment by BCC-CSM1.1 climate model l[J]. Climate Change Research, 2016,12(4):294-302 (in Chinese)
[28]	单机坤, 梁潇云, 吴统文 , 等. BCC_CSM1.1(M)模式对于夏季亚洲-太平洋涛动的模拟[J]. 地球物理学报, 2018,61(1):106-118.
	Shan J K, Liang X Y, Wu T W, et al. Simulation of the Asian-Pacific Oscillation using the BCC_CSM1.1(m) model[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 2018,61(1):106-118 (in Chinese)
[29]	伍丽泉, 李清泉, 丁一汇, 等. BCC_CSM1.1气候模式年代际试验对北极涛动季节回报能力的初步评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019,15(1):1-11.
	Wu L Q, Li Q Q, Ding Y H, et al. Preliminary assessment on the seasonal hindcast skill of the Arctic Oscillation with decadal experiment by BCC_CSM1.1 climate model[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019,15(1):1-11 (in Chinese)
[30]	WMO. Abridged final report with resolutions and recommendations[C]. Geneva, Switzerland: Secretariat of the WMO, 1999,896:154-157
[31]	WMO. Standardized Verification System (SVS) for Long-Range Forecasts (LRF) new attachment II-9 to the manual on the GDPS (WMO-No. 485), Volume I[C]. Geneva: WMO, 2002
[32]	吴捷, 任宏利, 张帅, 等. BCC二代气候系统模式的季节预测评估和可预报性分析[J]. 大气科学, 2017,41(6):1300-1315.
	Wu J, Ren H L, Zhang S, et al. Evaluation and predictability analysis of seasonal prediction by BCC second-generation climate system model[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017,41(6):1300-1315 (in Chinese)
[33]	魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第2版)[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2012.
	Wei F Y. Modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction technology (Version 2) [M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2012 (in Chinese)
[34]	Zeng Q C, Zhang B L, Yuan C G, et al. A note on some methods suitable for verifying and correcting the prediction of climatic anomaly[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 1994,11(2):2-12
[35]	李佰平, 智协飞. ECMWF模式地面气温预报的四种误差订正方法的比较研究[J]. 气象, 2012,38(8):897-902.
	Li B P, Zhi X F. Comparative study of four correction schemes of the ECMWF surface temperature forecasts[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2012,38(8):897-902 (in Chinese)
[36]	贾丽红, 张云惠, 何耀龙, 等. 基于多模式的新疆最高(低)气温预报误差订正及集成方法研究[J]. 干旱气象, 2018,36(2):310-318.
	Jia L H, Zhang Y H, He Y L, et al. Research on error correction and integration methods of maximum and minimum temperature forecast based on multi-model in Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2018,36(2):310-318 (in Chinese)
[37]	郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平. 基于季节气候可预报分量的相似误差订正方法和数值实验[J]. 物理学报, 2009,58(10):7359-7367.
	Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P. Analogue correction of errors based on seasonal climatic predictable components and numerical experiments[J]. Acta Physica Sinica, 2009,58(10):7359-7367 (in Chinese)
[38]	程娅蓓, 任宏利, 谭桂容. 东亚夏季风模式跨季预测的EOF-相似误差订正[J]. 应用气象学报, 2016,27(3):285-292.
	Cheng Y B, Ren H L, Tan G R. Empirical Orthogonal Function-analogue correction of extra-seasonal dynamical prediction of East-Asian summer monsoon[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2016,27(3):285-292 (in Chinese)