Climate Change Research ›› 2016, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (6): 476-483.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.087

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Preliminary Quantitative Assessment Study on Climate Carrying Capacity of Cities

Yan Shengjun1, 2, He Xiaojia3, Wang Xuan1, 2, Zeng Weihua1, Li Chunhui2, Cai Yanpeng1   

  1. 1 State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;  
    2 Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    3 The Administrative Center for China’s Agenda 21, Beijing 100038, China
  • Received:2016-05-12 Revised:2016-06-11 Online:2016-11-30 Published:2016-11-30
  • Contact: Xiao-Jia HE;


In this paper, a comprehensive evaluation index system of climate carrying capacity for cities was established from the aspects of the climate natural capacity, city climate stress, and urban coordinated development ability. The climate natural capacity index was calculated using the method of Nemerow index. City climate stress and urban coordinated development ability indexes were calculated using comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy weight. Then the urban climate capacity comprehensive evaluation model was established to quantify the evaluation results. Taking Shanghai city as an example, the climate carrying capacity was analyzed and discussed using the proposed model during the period 2004-2013. The results showed that the assessment system of city carrying capacity is feasible. It could describe spatio-temporal changes of cities, and identify the problems of regional climate carrying capacity in the development and utilization. This assessment system can also provide a reference for the building of an early warning system of climate carrying capacity. The climate carrying capacity of Shanghai city in the studied period was inferior compared with that in the standard year, and was in a state of large fluctuations due to the influence of climate natural capacity.

Key words: climate carrying capacity, quantitative assessment, Shanghai city, climate of city

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