气候变化研究进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (1): 1-10.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.117

• 气候系统变化 •    下一篇

近百年来ENSO 强度的变化特征

史珩瑜1,2, 张祖强2,任宏利2   

  1. 1 南京信息工程大学,南京 210044;
    2 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2016-06-12 修回日期:2016-08-08 出版日期:2017-01-30 发布日期:2017-01-30
  • 通讯作者: 史珩瑜 E-mail:shihy0909@163.com
  • 作者简介:史珩瑜,女,硕士研究生,shihy0909@163.com;张祖强(通信作者),男,副研究员,zhangzq@cma.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展规划(973)项目(2013CB430203);公益类行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506013)

Observed ENSO Intensity Changes During 1900-2015

Shi Hengyu1, 2, Zhang Zuqiang2, Ren Hongli2   

  1. 1 Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
    2 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2016-06-12 Revised:2016-08-08 Online:2017-01-30 Published:2017-01-30
  • Contact: Heng-Yu SHI E-mail:shihy0909@163.com

摘要:

利用美国NOAA 提供的月平均海表温度资料和英国Hadley 中心提供的全球逐月海温格点资料,研究了1900—2015 年间厄尔尼诺- 南方涛动现象(ENSO)的强度变化。结果发现,1900—2015 年中ENSO 事件强度发生了明显变化:20 世纪初期至50 年代ENSO 强度为近百年来最弱时期,而从50 年代以后其强度显著增强,特别是70 年代至90 年代末期ENSO 强度达到近百年来最强,但在2000 年以后其强度又有所减弱。进一步分析表明,在20 世纪20—50 年代的强度偏弱期,ENSO 空间型的南北宽度为近百年来最窄,伴随着最大海温异常中心位置偏西;相比之下,在20 世纪70年代以来的强度偏强期,ENSO 空间型的南北宽度达到最宽,对应着最大海温异常中心位置偏东,而2000 年以后的情形有向相反方向发展的趋势。

关键词: 近百年, ENSO, 强度变化

Abstract:

NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature V3b dataset (ERSST) and Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST) were used in this paper for analyzing the observed ENSO intensity changes during 1900-2015. It is demonstrated that ENSO amplitude changed clearly over the past more than 100 years. From the beginning of the 20th century to the 1950s, ENSO intensity weakened while it strengthened significantly from the 1950s to the late 1990s, especially after the 1970s. After 2000, the intensity declined slightly. The weakest ENSO intensity occurred from the 1920s to the 1950s, during which the northsouth width of ENSO spatial pattern narrowed and the maximum sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) center had a westward shift. In contrast, the width was the widest and the maximum SSTA center had an eastward shift after the late 1970s when ENSO intensity kept a strong magnitude. And then the width and the center had an opposite changing tendency after 2000.

Key words: the last hundred years, ENSO, intensity change

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