关键词: 煤炭消费, 总量控制, 大气污染, 量化分析

Abstract:

To control the coal consumption is the key measure to deal with air pollution issues, while China’s coal consumption control has not ever been decomposed to local level. With this case, based on the analysis of air pollution constraints, combined with scenario analysis and data regression, to set up the relationship between air pollutants and coal consumption, then to study the whole China’s and each provinces’ coal consumption goals in 2020 and 2030, finally to design the scheme of China’s coal consumption, which proposed the national coal consumption control target of 2020 and 2030 are respectively 4.0 billion tons and 4.5 billion tons respectively, the provinces’ is implemented according to the predictions, the summary values were 4.4 billion tons and 5.0 billion tons respectively, in view of the gap between two cases is due to the national statistical factors considered discarding duplicates, thus the results of the analysis based on national statistics will be adopted. It recommends building green economic developmental indicators of coal consumption, while appropriately increasing the proportion of coal consumption for electricity production, so as to provide technical support for China’s reasonable coal consumption of medium and long term.

Key words: coal consumption, total control, air pollution, quantitative analysis