关键词: 温室气体源/汇, 《京都议定书》, 第二承诺期, 森林管理, GHG emissions/removals, Kyoto Protocol, second commitment period, forest management

Abstract: Reference level of forest management most recently submitted and data from updated 1990-2009 national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory including the Kyoto Protocol forest management GHG data submitted by Annex I parties in 2011 were collected and analyzed in terms of the role of forest management in the compliance of the first and proposed second commitment periods of the Kyoto Protocol. In 2008-2009, Annex I parties can claim a credit of 246 million tons of CO2 equivalent per year from eligible forest management activities under the Kyoto Protocol, accounting for 2.3% of the total GHG emissions without LULUCF in 1990 of those Annex I parties using forest management. This implies that about 53% of emission reduction committed by these parties in the first commitment period can be offset by the net GHG removals of forest management activities. Under-capped credit from forest management allows some parties able to over-use forest management credit and do much less emission reduction in emission sectors. The reference levels submitted by Annex I parties are much less than historical removals of managed forests or much higher than historical emissions. Assuming that actual emissions/removals keep at the average historical level in the future, the reference level would allow Annex I parties to use 4 times more credit from forest management in the period 2013-2020 compared with the cap in the first commitment period, by annually mean. A large part of proposed emission reduction of some parties for the second commitment period would be achieved through offsetting from forest management.