Projected Surface Water Resource of the Yangtze River Basin Before 2050

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2009, Vol. 5 ›› Issue (00): 54-59.

• Impacts and Adaptation • 上一篇下一篇

Projected Surface Water Resource of the Yangtze River Basin Before 2050

Liu Bo^{1, 2, 4}, Jiang Tong^{1, 2}, Ren Guoyu², Klaus Fraedrich³

1 Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China; 2 Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3 Meteorological Institute, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany; 4 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-10-30 发布日期:2009-10-30

Projected Surface Water Resource of the Yangtze River Basin Before 2050

Liu Bo^{1, 2, 4}, Jiang Tong^{1, 2}, Ren Guoyu², Klaus Fraedrich³

1 Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China; 2 Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3 Meteorological Institute, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany; 4 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-10-30 Published:2009-10-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： Based on the projected runoff depth by ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model for the Yangtze River basin under SRES A2, A1B, B1 greenhouse gas emission scenarios in 2001-2050, the spatial and temporal patterns of future surface water resource in the Yangtze River basin were analyzed. The results show that the long-term average annual surface water resource volumes of the Yangtze River under the three scenarios are similar, while interannual fluctuations are complicated with different trends. The surface water resource declines gradually in fluctuations under the A2 scenario, shows no obvious trends under the A1B scenario, and displays a relatively significant increasing trend under the B1 scenario. Decadal variations of surface water resource are notable, showing an overall decline trend under all the three scenarios in 2001-2030, while an increasing trend to varying extent after the 2030s, especially in summer and winter. The projected future water resource volume in the Yangtze River basin overally remains at the current level, showing an evident spatial uneven feature.

关键词: projection, climate change, surface water resource, greenhouse gas emission scenario

Abstract: Based on the projected runoff depth by ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model for the Yangtze River basin under SRES A2, A1B, B1 greenhouse gas emission scenarios in 2001-2050, the spatial and temporal patterns of future surface water resource in the Yangtze River basin were analyzed. The results show that the long-term average annual surface water resource volumes of the Yangtze River under the three scenarios are similar, while interannual fluctuations are complicated with different trends. The surface water resource declines gradually in fluctuations under the A2 scenario, shows no obvious trends under the A1B scenario, and displays a relatively significant increasing trend under the B1 scenario. Decadal variations of surface water resource are notable, showing an overall decline trend under all the three scenarios in 2001-2030, while an increasing trend to varying extent after the 2030s, especially in summer and winter. The projected future water resource volume in the Yangtze River basin overally remains at the current level, showing an evident spatial uneven feature.

Key words: projection, climate change, surface water resource, greenhouse gas emission scenario, the Yangtze River basin

Liu Bo;;;Jiang Tong;;Ren Guoyu;Klaus Fraedrich. Projected Surface Water Resource of the Yangtze River Basin Before 2050[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5(00): 54-59.

Liu Bo;;;Jiang Tong;;Ren Guoyu;Klaus Fraedrich. Projected Surface Water Resource of the Yangtze River Basin Before 2050[J]. Climate Change Research, 2009, 5(00): 54-59.

[1]	Hu Guoquan;Luo Yong;Liu Hongbin. Contributions of Accumulative Per Capita Emissions to Global Climate Change[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5(00): 30-33.
[2]	Pan Genxing. Stock, Dynamics of Soil Organic Carbon of China and the Role in Climate Change Mitigation[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5(00): 11-18.
[3]	Zhang Jianyun;;Wang Guoqing;;Yang Yang;;He Ruimin;;Liu Jiufu;. Impact of Climate Change on Water Security in China[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5(00): 34-40.
[4]	Xia Jun;Thomas Tanner;Liu Xiaojie;Ren Guoyu;Yan Maochao;Ian Holman . Screening for Climate Change Adaptation: Managing the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Sector in China[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5(00): 41-46.
[5]	Liu Chunzhen. Research Advances in Impacts of Natural Climate Variability and Anthropogenic Climate Change on Streamflow[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5(00): 47-53.
[6]	Zou Yongchang;Yang Xiuqun;Pan Zhixiang;Sun Xuguang;Fang Jiabei;Liao Yufang. Effect of CO₂-Doubling on Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5(00): 60-65.
[7]	He Jiankun;Chen Wenying;Teng Fei;Liu Bin. Long-Term Climate Change Mitigation Target and Carbon Permit Allocation[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5(00): 78-85.
[8]	Lian Yi;Gao Zongting;Shen Baizhu;Ren Hongling;Tang Xiaoling;Liu Yuying. Climate Change and Its Impacts on Grain Production in Jilin Province[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(000): 56-59.
[9]	Fred F. Hattermann;Joachim Post;Valentina;Krysanova;Tobias Conradt;Frank Wechsung. Assessment of Water Availability in a Central-European River Basin (Elbe) Under Climate Change[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(000): 42-50.
[10]	Liu Yingjie;Lin Erda. Impact of Climate Warming in the Past 20 Years on Agriculture in Different Regions of China[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(000): 51-55.
[11]	Zhang Zengxin;Zhang Qiang;Zhang Jinchi;Jiang Tong;Klaus Fraedrich. Projection of Future Precipitation Extremes Change (2001-2050) in the Yangtze River Basin[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(000): 32-36.
[12]	Yang Qing;Cui Caixia;Sun Churong;Ren Yiyong. Snow Cover Variation in the Past 45 Years (1959-2003) in the Tianshan Mountains, China[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(000): 13-17.
[13]	Qian Weihong;Ding Ting;Fu Jiaolan;Lin Xiang;Zhu Yafen. Review on the Data Application and Climate Variability in China for Various Timescales[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(000): 1-06.
[14]	Chen Xiaoguang;Zheng Guangfen;Chen Xiaojuan;Zhang Zhi. Changes in Torrential Rain Days in Ningxia Under Climate Warming[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(000): 7-12.
[15]	Chen Yiyu Ding Yongjian She Zhixiang Lin Erda Pan Jiahua Zhou Guangsheng Wang Shourong Zhou Dadi Li Congxian Zhang Jianyun Xu Guodi Liu Chunzhen Wu Zongxin. Assessment of Climate and Environment Changes in China (II): Impacts, adaptation and mitigation of climate and environment changes[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2006, 02(00): 6-12.

Projected Surface Water Resource of the Yangtze River Basin Before 2050

Projected Surface Water Resource of the Yangtze River Basin Before 2050

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价