关键词: 环境变化, 实测径流, 沁河流域

Abstract: Based on the precipitation and water consumption data, and the runoff data observed at Wuzhi hydrological station of the Qinhe River from 1956 to 2000, the trend and abrupt change point of the observed annual runoff series were analyzed and examined using the linear trend and Mann-Kedall methods, and the sliding t-test. The reasons for changes in the observed runoff were analyzed. The linear relationship between accumulated annual precipitation and natural runoff was found for the base period 1956-1972. The amounts of the observed runoff changes caused by precipitation, water consumption and underlying surface changes were isolated. The results show that there is a distinctive decreasing tendency in the observed runoff. The abrupt change year of the annual runoff observed at Wuzhi station is 1972. The observed runoff reduction is caused by the combined effects of rainfall reduction, increase in water consumption, coal mining, and exploitation of groundwater and soil and water conservation measures. The total amount of runoff impacted by increase in water consumption, climate change, and underlying surface change is 70.6 mm, among which 17.6 mm is caused by water consumption, accounting for 24.9%, 35.6 mm caused by climate change, accounting for 50.4%, and 17.5 mm caused by the change of underlying surface, accounting for 24.7%.

Key words: environmental change,  , observed runoff,  , Qinhe River watershed