碳排放配额分配规则对煤电收益的影响研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.181

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

依据中国煤电现状及碳电市场发展趋势，在6种碳价及3种传导率组合的碳配额分配规则下，利用经济调度模型对1000 MW、600 MW和300 MW燃煤机组发电收益影响进行模拟研究。结果表明，300 MW机组对配额基准线与拍卖比例的变化较为敏感。在碳价为50.0元/t、79.9元/t及碳价传导率为20%的碳电市场耦合初期阶段下，配额基准线下降至0.74 t CO₂/(MW∙h)或拍卖比例升高至50%，300 MW和600 MW机组存在负收益情况。若碳价及其传导率增加，配额基准线与拍卖比例改变对煤电机组造成的负效应更可控;核证减排量比例扩大对提高机组收益影响甚微，可以作为碳市场的一种有益补充并加以监管。因此，在充分考虑煤电承受力和竞争力前提下，制定碳配额分配规则应适应碳电市场发展阶段，积极推动碳电市场耦合传导碳成本，配合抵销机制来加速碳减排。

关键词: 碳配额, 煤电, 经济调度模型, 发电收益, 传导率

Abstract:

Based on the current situation of China’s coal power and the development trend of carbon market and power market, the impact of carbon allowance allocation rules on power generation revenue of 1000 MW, 600 MW and 300 MW coal-fired units under six carbon prices and three pass-through rates were simulated with economic dispatch model. The results show that the 300 MW units are sensitive to the change in carbon allowance baseline and auction ratio. At the initial period of the coupling between carbon market and power market with carbon price of CNY 50.0 yuan/t, CNY 79.9 yuan/t and a pass-through rate of 20%, if allowances baseline drops to 0.74 t CO₂/(MW∙h) or the auction ratio rises to 50%, 300 MW and 600 MW units will have negative returns. However, when the carbon price and its pass-through rate increase, the negative effect on coal power units caused by the change in carbon allowance baseline and auction ratio is more manageable. The expansion of certified emission reduction ratio has little effect on the improvement of unit revenue, which can be a beneficial supplement to carbon market and be controlled. Therefore, after full consideration of coal power capacity and competitiveness, it is necessary to formulate carbon allowance allocation rules to adapt to the development stages of carbon market and power market, actively promote the coupling of the two markets to pass through carbon costs and cooperate with the offset mechanism to accelerate carbon emission reduction.

Key words: Carbon allowance, Coal power, Economic dispatch model, Power generation revenue, Pass-through rate

刘元欣, 罗旭, 张为荣, 袁家海. 碳排放配额分配规则对煤电收益的影响研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(3): 334-346.

LIU Yuan-Xin, LUO Xu, ZHANG Wei-Rong, YUAN Jia-Hai. Impact of carbon allowance allocation rules on the revenue of coal power sector[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(3): 334-346.

图/表 11

图1 2020年广东电网燃煤机组工作日负荷预测曲线 ----广东典型工作日负荷 ——本文燃煤机组日负荷

Fig. 1 Prediction of the workday load curve of coal-fired units in Guangdong power grid in 2020

表1 燃煤机组的燃料成本和碳排放系数

Table 1 Coefficients of coal-fired units’ fuel costs and carbon emission

表2 燃煤机组的技术参数

Table 2 Technical coefficients of coal-fired units

图2 煤电企业参与碳交易市场配额分配与清缴示意图

Fig. 2 Illustration of the allocation and surrender of allowance in carbon emission trading market for coal power enterprises

表3 碳电市场耦合三阶段的情景设置

Table 3 Scenarios settings under three periods of carbon market and power market coupling

图3 碳电市场耦合三阶段下燃煤机组的出力情况机组1 机组2 机组3 机组4 机组5 机组6

Fig. 3 Output of coal-fired units under three periods of carbon market and power market coupling

图4 碳电市场耦合三阶段下系统出清电价

Fig. 4 System marginal price under three periods of carbon market and power market coupling

表4 碳配额分配规则设置

Table 4 Rules settings of carbon allowance allocation

图5 不同碳电市场耦合阶段下配额基准线对燃煤机组收益的影响对比注：图形形状分别对应各机组，纵坐标轴上的0.85 t CO2/(MW?h)、0.80 t CO2/(MW?h)和0.74 t CO2/(MW?h)分别对应表4的Case1、Case2和Case3。

Fig. 5 Comparison of the impact of carbon allowance baseline on coal-fired unit revenue under different periods of carbon market and power market coupling

图6 不同碳电市场耦合阶段下配额拍卖比例对燃煤机组收益的影响对比注：图形形状释意同上，纵坐标轴上的0%、20%和50%分别对应表4的Case1、Case4和Case5。

Fig. 6 Comparison of the impact of carbon allowance auction on coal-fired unit revenue under different periods of carbon market and power market coupling

图7 不同碳电市场耦合阶段下CCER抵销比例对燃煤机组收益的影响对比注：图形形状释意同上，纵坐标轴上的5%、8%和10%分别对应表4的Case1、Case6和Case7。

Fig. 7 Comparison of the impact of CCER offset ratio on coal-fired unit revenue under different periods of carbon market and power market coupling

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