气候变化研究进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (3): 334-346.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.181
收稿日期:
2022-08-01
修回日期:
2022-12-13
出版日期:
2023-05-30
发布日期:
2023-02-17
通讯作者:
袁家海,男,教授,yuanjh126@126.com
作者简介:
刘元欣,女,副教授
基金资助:
LIU Yuan-Xin1, LUO Xu1, ZHANG Wei-Rong1, YUAN Jia-Hai1,2()
Received:
2022-08-01
Revised:
2022-12-13
Online:
2023-05-30
Published:
2023-02-17
摘要:
依据中国煤电现状及碳电市场发展趋势,在6种碳价及3种传导率组合的碳配额分配规则下,利用经济调度模型对1000 MW、600 MW和300 MW燃煤机组发电收益影响进行模拟研究。结果表明,300 MW机组对配额基准线与拍卖比例的变化较为敏感。在碳价为50.0元/t、79.9元/t及碳价传导率为20%的碳电市场耦合初期阶段下,配额基准线下降至0.74 t CO2/(MW∙h)或拍卖比例升高至50%,300 MW和600 MW机组存在负收益情况。若碳价及其传导率增加,配额基准线与拍卖比例改变对煤电机组造成的负效应更可控;核证减排量比例扩大对提高机组收益影响甚微,可以作为碳市场的一种有益补充并加以监管。因此,在充分考虑煤电承受力和竞争力前提下,制定碳配额分配规则应适应碳电市场发展阶段,积极推动碳电市场耦合传导碳成本,配合抵销机制来加速碳减排。
刘元欣, 罗旭, 张为荣, 袁家海. 碳排放配额分配规则对煤电收益的影响研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(3): 334-346.
LIU Yuan-Xin, LUO Xu, ZHANG Wei-Rong, YUAN Jia-Hai. Impact of carbon allowance allocation rules on the revenue of coal power sector[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(3): 334-346.
图2 煤电企业参与碳交易市场配额分配与清缴示意图
Fig. 2 Illustration of the allocation and surrender of allowance in carbon emission trading market for coal power enterprises
图5 不同碳电市场耦合阶段下配额基准线对燃煤机组收益的影响对比 注:图形形状分别对应各机组,纵坐标轴上的0.85 t CO2/(MW?h)、0.80 t CO2/(MW?h)和0.74 t CO2/(MW?h)分别对应表4的Case1、Case2和Case3。
Fig. 5 Comparison of the impact of carbon allowance baseline on coal-fired unit revenue under different periods of carbon market and power market coupling
图6 不同碳电市场耦合阶段下配额拍卖比例对燃煤机组收益的影响对比 注:图形形状释意同上,纵坐标轴上的0%、20%和50%分别对应表4的Case1、Case4和Case5。
Fig. 6 Comparison of the impact of carbon allowance auction on coal-fired unit revenue under different periods of carbon market and power market coupling
图7 不同碳电市场耦合阶段下CCER抵销比例对燃煤机组收益的影响对比 注:图形形状释意同上,纵坐标轴上的5%、8%和10%分别对应表4的Case1、Case6和Case7。
Fig. 7 Comparison of the impact of CCER offset ratio on coal-fired unit revenue under different periods of carbon market and power market coupling
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