全球增暖1.5℃和2℃北太平洋年代际尺度振荡的差异

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.205

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于CESM模式对1.5℃和2℃两种增暖情景的模拟结果,对比分析了太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）和北太平洋涡旋振荡（NPGO）在全球稳定增暖1.5℃和2℃时期与工业革命前、历史时期在强度和周期上的差异。结果表明：全球稳定增暖1.5℃和2℃时期,PDO和NPGO的强度均比历史时期弱,且主周期缩短,这可能与全球增暖情景下海洋层结增强导致的Rossby波变快有关。PDO的强度和周期在全球增暖1.5℃和2℃这两种情景下没有明显差异;而NPGO的强度在全球稳定增暖2℃时期比1.5℃时有明显减弱,且周期缩短1 a左右。因此,0.5℃升温差异对PDO的强度和周期影响较小,而对NPGO的强度和周期影响较大。

关键词: 全球变暖, 太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）, 北太平洋涡旋振荡（NPGO）, Rossby波

Abstract:

Based on the simulation results of CESM model under stable warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2℃, the amplitude and period of PDO and NPGO change during pre-industrial, historical and two stable warming periods are analyzed and compared. The results show that during stable warming periods of 1.5 and 2℃, the amplitude of both PDO and NPGO is weaker than that during historical period, and the time scale is decreased as well, which may be due to the acceleration of Rossby wave speed caused by enhancement of ocean layer under global warming scenarios. There are no significant differences in amplitude and time scale of PDO between the two stable warming scenarios, while the amplitude of NPGO is weaker and the period is decreased by about 1 year significantly during stable warming 2℃ compared to stable warming 1.5℃ period. Therefore, the 0.5℃ warming difference has a little impact on the amplitude and period of PDO, while mainly influences the amplitude and period of NPGO.

Key words: Global warming, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Rossby wave

冯静, 李春, 范磊. 全球增暖1.5℃和2℃北太平洋年代际尺度振荡的差异[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(4): 442-452.

FENG Jing, LI Chun, FAN Lei. Differences of decadal oscillations between global warming of 1.5℃ and 2℃ in the North Pacific[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(4): 442-452.

图/表 9

图1 全球地表气温较工业革命前时期变化的时间序列注：PI,工业革命前时期（1850—1920年）;HIS,历史时期（1921—2005年）;LW1.5/ LW2,全球稳定增暖1.5℃/2℃时期（2031—2100年）。

Fig. 1 Time series of global annual mean surface temperature change relative to preindustrial period

图2 北太平洋冬季SSTA总标准差、年代际标准差以及年际标准差的空间分布

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of winter SSTA total, decadal and interannual standard deviation in North Pacific

图3 北太平洋冬季SSTA区域平均的标准差注：矩形盒的上下边界分别是第1四分位数和第3四分位数,下同。

Fig. 3 Total (a), decadal (b), and interannual (c) standard deviation of winter area-average SSTA in North Pacific(Boxplot boundaries are set at the 25th and 75th percentiles)

图4 不同时期PDO和NPGO的空间模态注：右上角数字为方差贡献。

Fig. 4 Spatial modes of PDO and NPGO in different periods

图5 不同时期SSTA对PI时期PDO和NPGO空间模态回归的时间序列标准差

Fig. 5 Total (a, d), decadal (b, e), and interannual (c, f) standard deviation of time series by regressing SSTA in other periods onto PI period

图6 不同时期PDO和NPGO的功率谱

Fig. 6 Power spectrum of PDO and NPGO in different periods

图7 同图3,但为黑潮延伸体（KOE）冬季SSTA标准差

Fig. 7 Same as Fig. 3, but for standard deviation of winter area-average SSTA in KOE (37?-45?N, 140?-160?E)

图8 同图6,KOE冬季SSTA的功率谱

Fig. 8 Same as Fig. 6, but for power spectrum of winter SSTA of KOE

图9 北太平洋各时期不同纬度Rossby波波速(a, b)和Rossby波跨海盆传播时间(c)

Fig. 9 Rossby wave speed and its change ratio at different latitudes in the North Pacific (a, b) and its basin-crossing time (c)

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