Under the background of global warming, warming over the Tibetan Plateau has accelerated, with pronounced changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme high-temperature events, extreme precipitation events, and their compound occurrences. Through thermal anomalies, snow-albedo feedback, high potential vorticity systems, and teleconnection processes, the Tibetan Plateau exerts profound influences on extreme weather and climate over eastern China, South Asia, and the mid- to high-latitude regions of Eurasia. This paper systematically reviews research progress over the past decade (particularly the last five years) on the characteristics of extreme weather and climate changes over the Tibetan Plateau and the mechanisms by which they affect surrounding and downstream regions. Emphasis is placed on the evolution of extreme temperature and precipitation, the climatic effects of plateau snow cover and sensible heat heating, the triggering role of plateau high potential vorticity systems on downstream extreme events, as well as the “bridge” role of the Tibetan Plateau in interactions across different latitudes. On this basis, the major scientific issues and limitations in current research are discussed, and future research directions are outlined. This review aims to provide reference for deepening the understanding of Tibetan Plateau climate dynamics, improving the prediction of extreme weather and climate, and supporting disaster risk reduction and ecological security.

Scientifically and rationally estimating agricultural eco-efficiency under the “Dual Carbon” goals facilitates an accurate assessment of whether agricultural green and low-carbon development is on the expected track. This study constructs a new theoretical framework from three dimensions—resource input, economic benefit, and environmental impact—incorporating both agricultural carbon emissions and carbon sinks as “Dual Carbon” constraints into the evaluation indicator system of agricultural eco-efficiency. Using a super-efficiency SBM-DEA model, we measure the agricultural eco-efficiency of 31 Chinese provinces from 2001 to 2020, analyze its current status and characteristics, and compare the results with those obtained under the traditional framework. The Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method, Kernel density estimation, and Tobit regression model are employed to examine the sources of spatial disparities, dynamic evolution trends, and influencing factors of agricultural eco-efficiency at the national level and across three major grain functional zones. The findings reveal that: agricultural eco-efficiency estimated under the “Dual Carbon” constraints better reflects the reality of current agricultural production; China’s overall agricultural eco-efficiency remains relatively high, yet its declining trend over 2001-2020 should not be overlooked, with the major grain marketing zone maintaining a leading position and provinces with lower eco-efficiency struggling to break out of a vicious cycle; significant regional disparities exist in agricultural eco-efficiency, exhibiting a fluctuating yet narrowing trend overall, with transvariation density contributing the most to spatial differentiation, and the disparity between the major grain marketing zone and the grain production-marketing balance zone being the primary source of inter-regional differences; bipolarization or multi-polarization is observed in agricultural eco-efficiency at the national level, the major grain producing zone, and the grain production-marketing balance zone, while polarization in the major grain marketing zone has notably diminished; the improvement of agricultural eco-efficiency in China and across the three major grain functional zones results from the complex interplay of multiple factors. These findings provide empirical evidence for planning pathways to improve agricultural eco-efficiency.

Based on 5 global models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study presents the projected changes in summer compound heatwaves and corresponding population exposure over China. The projected changes during the carbon neutrality periods under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios are analyzed relative to the historical period (1995-2014), and the differences between them are also compared. The results show that, during both the early carbon neutrality period (2032-2051) and the late carbon neutrality period (2054-2073), China is projected to experience increased and intensified compound heatwaves relative to the historical period, and the increase and intensification are greater in the late carbon neutrality period. Specifically, larger increases in compound heatwave days (HWD) are distributed in Southeastern China and Northwest China, while the greatest increases in mean daily intensity (HWI) and maximum daily intensity (HWImax) occur in Northwest China and North China. Furthermore, the likelihoods of extreme compound heatwaves (historically 1-in-50-year) are projected to increase, among which the largest increases are in HWD and mainly distributed in Northwest China and the Yangtze River valley. The increased HWD and HWI are expected to cause a significant increase in population exposure, particularly in the Yangtze River valley, Tibetan Plateau, and Northwest China. Comparatively, achieving carbon neutrality earlier is likely to reduce the increases in HWD and HWImax over China by 2.29 days and 0.44℃, respectively. For the likelihoods of extreme HWD and extreme HWImax, the increases during the early carbon neutrality period are 5.5 times and 3.8 times smaller than those during the late carbon neutrality period. Correspondingly, early carbon neutrality would prevent additional increases of approximately 1.1-fold and 0.8-fold in population exposure to compound heatwaves and extreme compound heatwaves in China, respectively.

Vegetation dynamics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, a major urban agglomeration in northern China, are critical for ecological barrier construction and regional sustainable development. Based on a cloud-free and seamless Landsat normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset with a spatial resolution of 30 m from 1986 to 2024, this study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation using the Theil-Sen slope estimator, Mann-Kendall test, Hurst exponent, and coefficient of variation. The driving mechanisms were further quantified within the XGBoost-SHAP framework. The results showed that the growing-season NDVI in the BTH region exhibited an overall increasing trend during the past 39 years, with a mean value of 0.5068 and an annual increasing rate of 0.0037, corresponding to an increase of 30.46%, indicating a significant improvement in regional vegetation cover. Stage-based analysis revealed that the proportion of vegetation degradation areas decreased from 33% to 10%, whereas the proportion of improvement areas increased to 79%. Approximately 86% of the region exhibited persistent vegetation improvement; however, nearly 45% of the area still showed high interannual variability. Spatially, areas with high vegetation coverage were mainly concentrated in the mountainous forest regions of northeastern BTH, whereas areas with low vegetation coverage were sporadically distributed in urban built-up areas and high-altitude regions. The contributions of driving factors exhibited distinct stage-dependent characteristics. In the first stage, natural factors, particularly slope and precipitation, dominated vegetation changes. In the second stage, the contribution of land cover type increased substantially, reflecting the influence of ecological restoration policies. In the third stage, anthropogenic factors, including population density and nighttime light intensity, became increasingly important, indicating a shift toward human-nature coupled dynamics. Significant regional heterogeneity in driving factors was also observed: vegetation dynamics in Beijing and Tianjin were more strongly influenced by human activities, whereas topographic and climatic factors dominated in Hebei province. Overall, the findings suggest that vegetation improvement in the BTH region was primarily driven by the synergistic effects of ecological policies and climatic factors, although disturbances associated with rapid urbanization still warrant attention. This study provides scientific support for regional ecological management and the achievement of China’s “dual-carbon” goals.

Electricity is attracting widespread attention for its critical role in global socioeconomic development, the clean energy transition, and climate change mitigation. Based on a newly established global database and a multi-level, multi-dimensional assessment framework, the current status and recent progress of global electricity development and transition were systematically evaluated in this study. Since 2020, global electricity development and transition have been characterized by four trends: electrification of energy consumption, the shift to clean electricity generation, wide-area electricity allocation, and digital-intelligent system operation. In 2024, global electricity consumption grew by approximately 4%, surpassing the growth rates of both total energy consumption and the global economy (GDP). Concurrently, the global electrification rate reached around 20%, total installed generation capacity exceeded 9.4 TW, the total length of power grid lines surpassed 80 million km, and installed energy storage capacity reached approximately 290 GW, with all metrics setting new record highs. A key transition milestone was also achieved in 2024: clean energy accounted for over 50% of global total installed capacity for the first time. The electricity carbon intensity dropped by 3%, marking the largest decline in a decade. This study further provides a quantitative outlook to 2030, projecting that clean energy will account for 67% of global installed capacity and 59% of electricity generation, thereby achieving a clean-dominated power supply structure. Finally, it also outlines recommendations such as prioritizing power system flexibility and climate resilience, advancing research on evolving system operational dynamics, promoting the fusion and widespread adoption of new technologies and models, and enhancing international cooperation for sharing cost-effective technologies, replicable models, and expertise to address ongoing challenges and advance global targets.

Given the challenges in fuel substitution, the aviation industry remains a critical bottleneck for global carbon neutrality. Based on June 2018 Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) big data, this study calculates aviation carbon emissions for 158 countries and regions. By employing an improved spatial index decomposition method, we isolate structural and intensity effects, while utilizing Logistic and Gompertz models to forecast aviation demand through 2035 and assess mitigation potentials under six scenarios. Findings indicate that global aviation carbon emissions are highly concentrated, with the United States and Chinese Mainland serving as core sources. Spatial decomposition reveals that structural effects and distance-driven intensity effects contribute similarly to emission variations across countries. However, due to rigid geographic constraints on flight distances, a single country struggle to achieve significant reductions through route optimization, limiting the efficacy of short-haul substitution in scenario simulations. Under the baseline scenario, global aviation emissions are projected to rise by 59.7% by 2035 relative to the base period. Even in the integrated scenario where carbon intensity drops to 91% of the baseline, the reduction is insufficient to offset the pressure of total emission growth driven by demand expansion. Accordingly, this paper proposes differentiated strategies: mature markets should prioritize stock mitigation through fleet renewal and cabin optimization; emerging markets should focus on external synergy by promoting air-to-rail substitution within 1000 km; and hub regions should leverage sustainable aviation fuel and carbon offset mechanisms to overcome geographic constraints. Global aviation decarbonization must shift from single technical improvement toward multi-path integrated governance.

Given the complex and dynamically evolving nature of hydrogen energy development, a medium-to-long-term forecasting model for regional hydrogen demand has been developed based on system dynamics methodology. This model incorporates eight industry-specific subsystems, including synthetic ammonia, methanol, petroleum refining, and steel manufacturing. Key driving factors behind hydrogen energy demand across various industries have been systematically identified and analyzed, encompassing improvements in energy efficiency, technological advancements, policy incentives, and shifts in market demand. By simulating three socioeconomic scenarios, the evolution of total hydrogen demand and structural characteristics was analyzed across China and its seven geographical regions from 2022 to 2060. The results indicate that driven by the development of hydrogen energy and energy transition, national and regional hydrogen demand in China maintains a continuous growth trend. National hydrogen demand will reach 33.94 million to 48.38 million tonnes in 2030 and soar to 110 million to 160 million tonnes in 2060. Under the baseline scenario, demand in 2060 will surge by 391.4% compared with that in 2020. East, North and South China are the core regions for future hydrogen demand, accounting for as high as 56.5% of the total national demand in 2060, with a pronounced regional polarization effect. Meanwhile, the structure of hydrogen demand evolves from chemical industry-oriented to diversified development. Hydrogen demand from traditional industries accounts for over 65% before 2030, while demand from emerging sectors rises after 2040, among which the transportation sector witnesses the most rapid growth, with its share reaching 29.2% in 2060. Distinct disparities exist in regional transformation pathways. Hydrogen demand from emerging sectors in core regions such as East China will surpass that from traditional industries in 2060. Northeast and Northwest China will remain dominated by traditional industries, while the Northwest will see significant growth in power-sector hydrogen consumption due to its renewable energy advantages. The paper concludes by proposing differentiated regional strategies and infrastructure layouts to optimize supply-demand matching and facilitate the low-carbon transition of the energy system.

Global climate governance is experiencing a paradigm crisis triggered by failing multilateral mechanisms: the gap between national mitigation commitments and on-the-ground implementation continues to widen, and regional climate regulations-as exemplified by the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)-have evolved into implicit trade barriers. Meanwhile, the prevailing top-down model for achieving Carbon Neutrality has long been constrained by insufficient incentives for micro-entities, inadequate implementation, and a lack of intrinsic synergy with industrial upgrading. Against this backdrop, China’s Carbon Neutrality policy system underwent a fundamental strategic shift between 2023 and early 2026, moving from macro-target disaggregation toward micro-carrier empowerment. However, existing research has not yet established a coherent theoretical framework for the Zero-carbon Energy Prosumerage System (ZEPS), nor has it revealed the core logic by which ZEPS addresses the structural contradictions inherent in the Carbon Neutrality process. This study aims to fill these research gaps.
This paper systematically elaborates an original theory of ZEPS, defining it as a “cell of social civilization” that embodies a new paradigm of harmony between humanity and nature. It delineates four core characteristics of ZEPS: the absoluteness and primacy of its zero-carbon constraint, the unity of the producer and consumer identities, the organic integration and intelligent coordination of technological components, and its flattened production relations with deep social embeddedness. A three-level nested structure is constructed, comprising the basic layer, system layer, and aggregation layer, and ZEPS is rigorously distinguished from easily confused concepts such as zero-carbon industrial parks, microgrids, virtual power plants, and distributed photovoltaic systems. Drawing on a systematic analysis of China’s policy architecture, seven key dimensions supporting ZEPS development are identified: target constraints, organizational templates, technical infrastructure, spatial benchmarks, market engines, capital injection, and institutional breakthroughs. The techno-economic feasibility and multi-level value creation of ZEPS are empirically verified through two representative cases: the community-level ZEPS in Tongzhou, Beijing, and the Ordos Zero-Carbon Industrial Park.
The principal innovations and findings are threefold. First, the paper establishes a comprehensive theoretical framework for ZEPS, revealing that its defining logic is the integration of producer and consumer. This subverts the classic producer-consumer dichotomy embedded in fossil-fuel-based energy systems, reconstructs energy-production relations from the technological base, and gives rise to a flattened production model that stands in fundamental opposition to the centralized, monopolistic, and hierarchical structure of the fossil-fuel era. Second, it systematically identifies six strategic driving forces through which ZEPS propels green and low-carbon economic development: serving as a cornerstone of clean energy supply, enabling the extension of zero-carbon industrial chains, catalyzing the upgrading of zero-carbon product consumption, advancing social equity and shared prosperity, reconciling ecological protection with economic development, and providing a fulcrum for international competition and cooperation. The paper further elucidates the multi-level value-transmission logic of ZEPS, extending from the foundational guarantee of energy security to the enhancement of discursive power in global climate governance. Third, it pinpoints four major systemic obstacles to the large-scale deployment of ZEPS: demand-resource mismatches, institutional and infrastructural bottlenecks, uncoordinated market mechanisms, and insufficient capacity building. On this basis, an innovative bottom-up transformation model is proposed, centered on the principle of “terminal energy demand driving energy autonomy”. A three-stage progressive implementation pathway is designed, together with a corresponding enabling ecosystem.
This study not only provides a systematic theoretical framework and an operable implementation pathway for translating China’s Carbon Neutrality ambitions from macro-level strategy into micro-level practice, but also contributes a replicable Chinese solution for achieving a distributed and inclusive zero-carbon transition worldwide. In particular, it offers a novel development paradigm for developing countries to leapfrog the traditional high-carbon industrialization trajectory and realize zero-carbon modernization, and thus carries significant theoretical and practical implications for global climate governance.

For countries whose economies are anchored in agriculture, reconciling climate responsibilities with industrial development constitutes a central policy challenge. This article takes New Zealand as a case study to systematically analyze its coordinated governance system for agricultural methane emission reduction. As a nation where livestock farming dominates and agricultural exports are critically important, New Zealand has legislatively distinguished management targets for different greenhouse gases domestically, constructed a dual-driven mitigation pathway integrating market mechanisms and technological innovation, and proactively engaged in international governance to shape a favorable external environment. Its decision to revise long-term emission reduction targets downward in 2025, based on conclusions drawn from global emission pathway dependency models, though contentious, reveals the practical dilemmas faced by agricultural nations under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”, and illustrates the complex logic of strategic adaptation informed by scientific assessment. New Zealand’s experience shows that long-term and sustainable methane governance is not merely a technical issue but also a strategic one. For China, the insights from New Zealand’s practice lie in the necessity to build a collaborative governance system that integrates scientific autonomy, market innovation, and the capacity to shape international rules, while actively leading the development of inclusive global methane governance frameworks. Only through such an approach can climate responsibilities be effectively fulfilled on the strategic foundation of ensuring food security and industrial competitiveness, thereby securing long-term initiative in green development.

The formal adoption of the Global Adaptation Goal (GGA) framework at COP30 marks a significant shift in the international climate governance system’s approach to adaptation efforts, moving from political commitments to systematic, trackable, and assessable actions. Although the civil aviation industry has made initial progress in adaptation, it still faces challenges such as fragmented planning, disjointed research, and scattered implementation measures, and it lacks a comprehensive adaptation system that covers the entire industrial chain. To address these issues, this paper first systematically examines the theoretical evolution of civil aviation adaptation, clarifying the core meaning of “adaptation” in the context of climate change response. It then comprehensively reviews existing adaptation practices among key stakeholders including airlines, airports, and air navigation service providers, identifying typical measures and evaluating their effectiveness. Based on these findings, the paper constructs a systematic implementation framework for civil aviation adaptation and proposes targeted capacity-building pathways across three dimensions: information coordination, organizational support, and technological innovation. This research provides robust theoretical foundations and actionable guidance for enhancing climate resilience and mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change in the civil aviation sector.

The Thirtieth Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) achieved the “Belém Political Package”, encompassing, inter alia, the Global Mutirão Decision, adaptation, just transition, the Global Stocktake, as well as mitigation, finance, and technology. In the context of the United States’ second withdrew from the Paris Agreement and global climate governance faces numerous challenges and uncertainties, China has made significant contributions to the Belém Climate Change Conference across multiple levels, including head-of-state diplomacy, ministerial bilateral and multilateral engagement, and negotiations across climate agenda items. China has promoted global climate governance to focus on implementation with China’s proposal as the direction for global action, and has also supported the global green and low-carbon transition through practical actions in the field of renewable energy. COP30 revealed several salient trends in global climate governance, including 1) the new characteristics of the global climate governance pattern as “rising in the East and declining in the West, and converging in the South and diverging in the North”, 2) developed countries are more concerned about newly added financing obligations, 3) a trend of the five-year ambition cycle under the Paris Agreement being shortened to “annual push”, and 4) developed countries are increasingly attempting to avoid substantive bifurcated obligations under the Convention. Looking ahead, the “transition away from fossil fuels” may become a focus of COP31 as it was not included in the Belém outcomes. Significant progress has been made on climate and trade issues and just transition issues, providing opportunities for developing countries to seek solutions to these issues within the multilateral climate process. The finance issue will remain as a hot topic in the climate process over the next two years. The new model of Turkey serving as the President of COP31 and Australia presiding over the negotiation work will bring some complexity to the direction of climate negotiations. The outcomes of the Belém Climate Conference carry significant political importance. Upholding multilateralism and international cooperation to address climate change remains the priority option for all Parties. Global climate governance is expected to become a forefront area for China to implement its Global Governance Initiative. China should keep active dialogues with all other stakeholders and get well prepared for the participation in COP31.

Early warning is an effective means for countries around the world to proactively adapt to climate change. In 2022, the United Nations launched the Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative, aiming to enhance the ability of global communities to respond to natural disasters and other emergencies by providing timely and effective early warning information. Works on monitoring and evaluation serve crucial support for the implementation of the initiative. The framework connotation, implementation steps, and index-based outcomes of monitoring and evaluation have been increasingly improved. Countries have actively responded to the initiative, with over 100 countries submitting data and information on early warning capacity to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The WMO and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) have jointly led the development of a dashboard tool and a variety of maturity indices to assess the performance of various countries. Works on monitoring and evaluation are of great significance for countries to work together to narrow the early warning gap and ultimately realize the goals of the EW4All initiative.