Tipping points in ice sheet systems have become a focal point in studying nonlinear dynamics within the coupled ice-climate system, presenting critical scientific challenges involving self-reinforcing feedbacks, critical thresholds, and irreversible responses. This review synthesizes current understanding of the fundamental mechanisms driving ice sheet tipping behavior, emphasizing how positive feedbacks can propel the system beyond stability thresholds, while negative feedbacks may buffer variability and maintain quasi-stable states. Focusing on the Greenland, West Antarctic, and East Antarctic ice sheets, we assess their distinct evolutionary trajectories, dynamic regimes, and responses to external forcing, highlighting the regulatory roles of bed topography, ice-ocean interactions, and the propagation of localized disturbances. Incorporating recent insights into system coupling and cascading tipping dynamics, we further examine the risk of compound tipping events and cross-system amplifications. Key sources of uncertainty in numerical modeling—ranging from poorly constrained boundary conditions to incomplete process representations—are identified systematically, along with strategies for their reduction. We conclude by outlining priority directions for enhancing observation-model integration and underscore the need for robust tipping point detection and early warning frameworks. This review aims to advance the theoretical basis and predictive capacity for assessing ice sheet stability and associated risks under future climate scenarios.

Since the 21st century, the speed of global warming has been significantly accelerated, and the impact of climate warming on China is significant and complicated. Based on the previous research results, this paper supplements the atlas of drought and flood distribution in China over the past 500 years, and completes the national drought and flood grade series from 2001 to 2024 and the spatial distribution characteristics of the national drought and flood grades. In view of the fact that in the past historical series, the distribution of stations in the western region of China was sparse, resulting in the extremely uneven density of stations in the eastern and western regions, this study also supplements the drought and flood grade series of cities in the western region from 1961 to 2024. The application analysis of the supplementary sequence shows that it can accurately reflect the major drought and flood events in China since the 21st century, and provide more complete data support for studying the long-term evolution and periodic characteristics of drought and flood events in China under the background of climate change. By analyzing the changes of drought and flood grades in western China, it is clear that the phenomenon of “warm-wet transition in Northwest China” mainly occurs in the western part of Northwest China, which is dominated by Qinghai and Xinjiang and its conclusion is consistent with the mainstream opinion of current academic circles. By comparing and analyzing the changes of ancient and modern drought intensity in the water network area of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer project, it is determined that this area has reached the standard of extreme drought for 27 years in the past 555 years, including the Chongzhen Great Drought in the late Ming Dynasty, the Incredible Famine of Ding-Wu in the late Qing Dynasty, and the 1941-1942 Henan Drought. At the same time, since 1961, three years have been selected as extreme drought years, the intensity of which have surpassed the 1941-1942 Henan Drought, but they are not as high as the grade indices of the driest years during the Chongzhen Great Drought and the Incredible Famine of Ding-Wu. Therefore, through the comparison of drought and flood grades, the dialogue across time and space is realized, and the intensity of modern major drought events is examined from a historical perspective.

Elevation-dependent warming (EDW) exists in China, but there is no complete consensus among different studies regarding whether the warming rate intensifies (positive EDW) or weakens (negative EDW) with increasing elevation. Based on the daily homogenized temperature dataset from the meteorological stations with high spatial coverage currently in China, the EDW characteristics were analyzed in this study during 1961-2021 and multiple sub-periods within this timeframe. The results show that annual mean values of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), and mean temperature (Tmean) all exhibit positive EDW, which is particularly pronounced over the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding regions. The EDW of seasonal mean temperatures varies significantly. The seasonal average Tmax and Tmean have significant negative EDW in spring, and the same is true of Tmin since 1981, while the seasonal average Tmin, Tmax and Tmean in other seasons are mostly characterized by significant positive EDW. The EDW of monthly mean temperature shows certain temporal differences. Compared to Tmin and Tmean, the monthly variation in EDW for Tmax is the most pronounced across all periods. The positive EDW of Tmax reaches the strongest in November or December, and then weakens. By March or April, the negative EDW of Tmax reaches its peak before transitioning back to positive values by June, which then remain relatively stable through October. Considering the influence of latitude difference on EDW signal detection, separate analyses were conducted for different latitude bands, and the results are consistent with the above conclusions. This study reveals that, even within the same region, the strength of EDW can differ markedly across seasons, and the EDW signal may even reverse sign-shifting from positive to negative or vice versa. The EDW pattern in China are closely related to surface changes in high-elevation regions under the background of global warming. The EDW and its seasonal differences are likely caused by the radiation budget forcing associated with changes in snow cover and vegetation coverage.

Cryospheric services refer to the diverse resources, products, and benefits that human societies obtain directly or indirectly from the cryosphere. As their role in regional sustainable development becomes increasingly prominent, the interaction between the cryosphere and the human sphere, centering on human well-being, has emerged as a research focus in cryospheric science and related fields. However, existing studies have yet to systematically reveal the intrinsic connections between the supply-demand relationships of cryospheric services and human well-being—a fundamental issue. There is a mismatch between the locations where humans utilize cryosphere services and the sites where cryosphere resources are supplied. The cryosphere services generated by service provision units may not be used to meet the human needs of service utilization units within the same region. This is particularly evident for services like water resources, which require spatial flow to be realized, leading to spatial decoupling between service provision units and utilization units. Moreover, the relationship between the degree of supply-demand matching and human well-being remains unclear, and existing research findings often fall short of providing a basis for formulating scientific management policies. Therefore, investigating the supply-demand relationship of cryosphere services is a crucial prerequisite for understanding the interactions between these services and human well-being. Among various cryospheric services, water resource services are the most critical link connecting cryospheric change to regional socio-economic development, due to their foundational nature, indispensability, and high sensitivity to climate change. Focusing on this pivotal service, this paper adopts a spatial flow perspective to clarify the academic understanding of the spatial matching between supply and demand and its nexus with human well-being. Subsequently, it develops an integrated assessment model and impact analysis method, based on the cascade effect, for the entire process of cryospheric water resource services: “production-flow-use”. By systematically delineating the spatial linkages between cryospheric service supply and human demand, this paper aims to comprehensively uncover the response and feedback mechanisms of human well-being to changes in cryospheric water resource services. The paper seeks to advance theoretical exploration and methodological innovation in interdisciplinary research integrating cryospheric science and human geography, while also expanding the research horizons and application prospects of cryospheric services from the perspectives of strategic thinking, scientific foundation, and practical application. Theoretically, cryospheric elements, processes, functions, services, and human benefits progressively evolve to contribute to the construction, maintenance, and enhancement of well-being. Integrating these aspects forms a research framework for cryosphere services and human well-being, expanding cryosphere scientific research from a focus on natural attributes to an integration of social attributes. This represents a theoretical exploration and integrative innovation at the intersection of natural and social sciences. Practically, by adopting interdisciplinary approaches, integrating multiple methodologies, and applying new technologies, comprehensive research coupling natural supply and human demand is conducted. This provides a scientific foundation for developing multi-scale, multi-type, and multi-effect sustainable governance methods, plans, and measures for the coupled cryosphere-human system. Such efforts facilitate refined zoning, targeted policy implementation, the establishment of regional compensation mechanisms, and the formulation of adaptive strategies for different stakeholders, thereby enhancing alignment between cryosphere scientific research and socio-economic sustainable development.

Drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA), as an extreme compound event, exerts far greater impacts on natural and social systems than individual drought or flood events. Based on CMIP6 data, population data, and GDP data, this study projected the evolutionary trends of DFAA and changes in population and GDP exposure in the Pearl River basin from 2021 to 2100 under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results are as follows. The frequency of DFAA events exhibited a non-significant upward trend from 1962 to 2020. In the future, the frequency of flood-to-drought alternation is significantly higher than that of drought-to-flood alternation. The frequency of drought-to-flood alternation decreases with the increase in emissions, while that of flood-to-drought alternation is the highest under high-emission scenarios. Except for the long-term period (2061-2100) under SSP1-2.6, both the frequency and intensity of drought-to-flood alternation show a decreasing trend compared to the baseline period. In the near-term period (2021-2060), the frequency of flood-to-drought alternation under the three SSPs is lower than that in the baseline period, while it rises in the long-term period. Under three SSPs, the population exposure to drought-to-flood alternation in the Pearl River basin presents a temporal trend of “differentiation in the near-term period and common increase in the long-term period”, while GDP exposure shows an overall upward trend. Spatially, regions with increasing exposure for both population and GDP are mainly concentrated in the Pearl River Delta region. The population exposure to flood-to-drought alternation decreases in the near-term period compared to the baseline period but increases in the long-term period. The GDP exposure to flood-to-drought alternation also follows a trend of “differentiation in the near-term period and common increase in the long-term period”. Spatially, regions with increasing exposure for both population and GDP spread from the eastern part of the basin to the central and western parts.

Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) represents a critical technological pathway for achieving carbon neutrality targets. It is paramount for the low-carbon transition of the hard-to-abate sectors. Based on the analysis of the current status of CCUS development in China, this paper notes that while progress has been achieved in terms of policy support and the number and scale of demonstration projects, significant challenges persist, including high technological costs, immature business models, incomplete industrial chain planning, and underdeveloped policy and market mechanisms. International analysis indicates a substantial gap between current global and national/regional CCUS deployment scales and the levels required to meet climate objectives. Developed countries have achieved more mature commercial project development through top-level strategies, regulatory standards, fiscal and tax incentives, and market mechanisms. Experiences from leading international projects underscore the importance of policy support, market innovation, industrial chain coordination, technological integration, and international cooperation. Consequently, to promote the scaled-up development of CCUS in China, this paper proposes the following recommendations: advancing R&D for cost reduction and efficiency gains, integrating industrial chains, improving policies, regulations, and market mechanisms, while deepening international cooperation and cultivating a skilled talent pool.

Clarifying the potential of onshore wind power is crucial for achieving the “Dual Carbon” goals and formulating precise wind energy development strategies. Based on daily wind speed data from over 2400 observation stations and five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) models under seven climate scenarios, the technical exploitable potential of wind power generation was evaluated by using wind turbine power curves and considering geographical constraints for suitable wind farm development zones. The spatiotemporal variations were analyzed in onshore wind speed and wind power technical potential (including onshore installed capacity potential and power generation potential) in China during the observation period (1961-2021), the “Carbon Peak” period (2026-2035), and the “Carbon Neutrality” period (2056-2065). Additionally, the spatial and temporal differences were compared between onshore wind power technical potential and planned development capacity. The key findings are as follows. (1) From 1961 to 2021, the onshore wind power installed capacity potential was 7.88 TW, with Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang accounting for 47% of the total. (2) From 2013 to 2021, the ratio of China’s actual installed wind power capacity to its potential increased from 1.5% to 5.0%, with Chongqing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Hebei accounting for over 55%. The share of actual wind power generation in total electricity consumption rose from 2.5% to 7.9%, with Inner Mongolia and Ningxia exceeding 24%. (3) Compared to the baseline period (1995-2014), the installed capacity potential and power generation potential during the “Carbon Peak” period are projected to decrease by 3.06% (0.79%-4.54%) and 5.12% (2.81%-7.02%), respectively. During the “Carbon Neutrality” period, these figures further decline by 5.00% (3.75%-6.47%) and 7.8% (5.95%-10.37%), with Sichuan and Beijing experiencing the most significant reductions in wind power technical potential. (4) During the “Dual Carbon” periods (encompassing both the “Carbon Peak” and “Carbon Neutrality” periods), China’s planned wind power installed capacity accounts for 12.99% (12.69%-13.19%) and 36.82% (36.33%-37.37%) of the total potential, respectively. In the “Carbon Peak” period, all provinces except Chongqing have sufficient potential to meet planned demand. However, in the “Carbon Neutrality” period, while most provinces in western and northeastern China can still meet planned capacity requirements, Chongqing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Hebei, Guizhou, Fujian, Shanxi, and Tianjin will struggle to support their planned installations. Furthermore, China’s wind power generation potential during the “Dual Carbon” periods could meet 90.13% (88.33%-92.33%) and 36.64% (35.62%-37.37%) of the total electricity demand, respectively. Regions such as Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, and Gansu exceed 100% self-sufficiency, whereas Tianjin, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chongqing fall below 5%, making them reliant on external power sources. In summary, the wind power installed capacity and generation potential during the “Dual Carbon” periods are sufficient to meet planned development targets. However, significant regional disparities exist, necessitating optimization of the energy supply structure, complementary integration of multiple clean energy sources, and improvement of energy efficiency and equitable distribution.

By the end of 2024, China’s offshore wind power has developed rapidly, accounting for more than half of the global new installed capacity. The rapid technological progress has led to a significant reduction in its power generation costs, playing a crucial role in China’s energy transition towards carbon neutrality. Based on the latest technological advancements in offshore wind power, this paper analyzes the development scenarios of offshore wind power under the carbon neutrality energy transition path of the IPAC model group, further assesses its technological progress and resource potential, provides the future installed capacity and power generation of different types of offshore wind power, and analyzes its power generation cost trends. On this basis, it analyzes the impact of low-cost offshore wind power development on the cost of green hydrogen-based industries, demonstrating the possible product competitiveness for coastal regions in the national industrial layout pattern. At the same time, it also presents the impact of offshore wind power development on regional grid electricity prices. For example, in Fujian province, offshore wind power can reduce local electricity prices by 0.02 yuan/(kW·h) and 0.05 yuan/(kW·h) in 2040 and 2050, respectively, which will contribute to the local social and economic development.

Against the backdrop of global warming, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events poses severe challenges to the safe production and economic operation of energy industries, particularly coal-based industries. This study constructs a four-dimensional research framework of “hazard factor-process parameter-economic impact-service demand”, collecting 413 survey questionnaires and conducting field visits to nine typical enterprises. Through quantitative analysis of the correlation between meteorological elements and production parameters, a threshold system for the impact of meteorological disasters on the Yulin coal-based energy industry was established. The main conclusions are as follows. The three dominant meteorological factors affecting the coal-based energy industry are temperature (29.0%), precipitation (24.4%), and wind speed (19.3%). The three major meteorological disasters are heavy precipitation (14.8%), low-temperature freezing (14.2%), and lightning (13.6%). By integrating process parameters and equipment status indicators from different coal-based industries, dynamic thresholds for temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, strong winds, and air pressure variation were proposed. A tiered early-warning mechanism was established, and emergency plans were optimized based on regional climate characteristics to enhance resilience against extreme weather. The synergistic amplification mechanism of compound meteorological disasters was elucidated. The combination of “low temperature-high humidity-calm wind” significantly increased haze pollution concentration compared to individual factors, while the “dry heat-strong wind” combination sharply elevated the risk index of explosion and fire. The threshold system established in this study, based on data from Yulin, has regional limitations. When extended to bases in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and other regions, differences in precipitation distribution and wind speed characteristics must be carefully considered for determining critical threshold values. Although this threshold system possesses the capacity for dynamic evolution with technological advancements, climate change, and policy adjustments, future efforts should focus on establishing an update mechanism coupled with climate predictions to achieve proactive adaptive adjustments.

Extreme events driven by climate change pose significant threats to global economic and social development. Developing countries confront heightened vulnerabilities due to the historical emissions of developed nations and their own limited adaptive capacity, while delayed fulfillment of “Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR)” by developed countries has further intensified the complexities of international climate governance. The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), established under the 2015 Paris Agreement, has long faced negotiation stagnation owing to ambiguous objectives and the absence of a robust assessment framework. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of key negotiation issues, evolving positions of Parties, and milestone outcomes concerning the GGA from COP26 to COP30, with particular emphasis on the “Belém Adaptation Indicators” adopted at COP30. The indicator framework spans seven priority areas, including water resources and food security, and encompasses four stages of assessment on climate change impact, vulnerability, and risk, planning, implementation, and monitoring, evaluation and learning. By streamlining an almost 500 proposed indicators before COP30 to 59 by the end of COP30, the framework emphasizes voluntary application and non-prescriptive guidance. It also establishes the “Belém-Addis Adaptation Vision” and the “Baku Adaptation Roadmap (Phase I)”, which clarify the financial and technical support obligations of developed countries. Throughout the process, developing countries upheld the principle of CBDR, advocating for the exclusion of data from private institutions, mitigation-related indicators, and content implicating national sovereignty, thereby ensuring that the framework remains focused on essential adaptation needs. The COP30 decision further sets an ambitious target to triple international adaptation finance by 2035 and launches a pilot mechanism on the 59 indicators for testing and feedback from multiple scales, in particular national level. This paper also examines the challenges confronting China’s domestic adaptation efforts and its engagement in international multilateral processes, underscoring the importance of leveraging this framework to strengthen national data and statistical systems, and taking into account international reporting needs, advance multilateral coordination mechanisms, and contribute Chinese approaches to building climate resilience within global climate governance.

This paper reviews the development of the first six scientific assessment reports of the IPCC Working Group I (WGI), summarizing significant progress in areas such as author representation, observational data, climate models, attribution of human activities, and future projections. Building on this foundation, it looks ahead to potential innovations in the Seventh Assessment Report (AR7). The article notes that from the FAR (1990) to AR6 (2021), the reports have continuously deepened in content, with improved model resolution, broader author representation, and substantially increased scientific certainty regarding the impact of human activities on climate change. It is anticipated that AR7 will achieve further breakthroughs in areas such as optimized scientific framework, methodological innovations, expansion of key topics, and enhanced collaboration across working groups, thereby providing more precise and systematic scientific support for global climate governance.