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20th Anniversary of Climate Change Research
The article proposes the main scientific issues associated with achieving carbon neutrality goal. The scientific understanding needed for achieving carbon neutrality goal and its role in supporting the achievement of this goal are comprehensively discussed focusing on three aspects of natural changes in the Earth system, the relationships between carbon neutrality and the natural Earth system, as well as between carbon neutrality and human activities. It is indicated specifically that the scientific issues related to natural changes in the Earth system include the understanding of carbon cycle in the Earth natural system, the role played by natural processes in climate warming, and paleoclimate change. The scientific issues related to the relationship between carbon neutrality and the Earth natural system include the impact of carbon neutrality on the Earth natural system, and sensitivities of climate warming to greenhouse gas radiative forcing. The scientific issues related to the relationship between carbon neutrality and human activities include interactions of the Earth natural system with socio-economic system, local-scale atmospheric variations associated with clean energy development and its impacts, as well as geoengineering and its influences on the Earth natural system. It is pointed out that an in-depth understanding of these issues will offer an essential scientific basis for adapting and mitigating climate change reasonably and effectively, which can provide an important scientific support in achieving the goal of carbon neutrality.
Climate change is a serious challenge to natural ecology and human society. As an important tool for addressing climate change, climate models provide important support for understanding the mechanism of the past climate system, climate services and projections of future global change scenarios. However, problems in process representation, subgrid parameterization and spatial resolution of climate models have severely limited their simulation and prediction capabilities. With the development of economy and society, artificial intelligence (AI) technology has been widely used, and its advantages of integrating multi-source data, identifying potential information, and learning from existing “experience” are expected to provide new assistance for climate research and application. Against this background, this paper firstly provides a concise review of the development of climate models, then combines the characteristics of AI on this basis to examine the application of AI in climate research and services, and analyzes the challenges faced at this stage. The results show that existing observational data and model outputs can provide a sufficient data base for AI applications, and AI can optimize and integrate climate models accordingly, thus improving the accuracy of climate simulation and prediction results. In the future, it is important to focus on the coupling of AI and climate models and to expand the application of AI in various areas of climate change, so as to more effectively address the challenges posed by global climate change.
Weather forecasting is closely related to the social economy and people’s lives. With the intensification of global warming, extreme weather events are widespread, frequent and intense, and traditional weather forecasting will face more significant challenges. Firstly, the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events is expounded in this paper, and then the impacts of global climate change on conventional and extreme weather forecast are analyzed, and it is found that climate change will increase the difficulty of extreme weather forecasting, and the role of improving the accuracy of extreme weather forecasting in disaster prevention and mitigation under the “new normal” is also emphasized and further analysis of climate warming will make weather forecasting face new challenges. On this basis, this paper further puts forward new trends of future weather forecast operational developments as well as countermeasures and suggestions to adapt to climate change, such as vigorously developing high-resolution and multi-circle nested numerical prediction models, in-depth research on the mechanism and predictability of extreme weather events in the context of climate change, developing the combination of dynamic-statistical model based on mechanism and big data analysis, artificial intelligence technology and new forecasting methods, and improving the scientific literacy and ability of forecasters.
The Asian Water Tower is the most important and vulnerable water tower in the world. Its most prominent feature is the glacier and snow processes. Climate change has led to a rapid reduction of solid water bodies such as glaciers and snow in the Asian Water Tower, while liquid water bodies such as lakes and rivers have significantly increased, resulting in an imbalance between solid and liquid phases. There is a spatial imbalance in the distribution of water resources, with an increase in water resources in the northern endorheic basins and a decrease in the southern exorheic basins. Glaciers are melting at an accelerated rate, with significant spatial differences between the southeast and northwest, showing severe glacial mass loss in the southeast and Tianshan regions, relatively minor losses in the northwest regions, and relative stability or advancement in the Pamir and West Kunlun regions. Snow cover and annual snow days have decreased, snowmelt is occurring earlier, and both maximum snow water equivalent and snowmelt are decreasing. In the future, research should be focused on the changes in glacier and snow processes in high-altitude areas, improving the spatiotemporal resolution of glacier and snow process models, strengthening research on future water resource changes under different scenarios, and proposing water security response strategies.
In the past 40 years, climate change has led to the warming and humidification of the Tibetan Plateau, which has had a significant impact on the geographical distribution and function of ecosystems of forests, shrubs, grasslands, wetlands, and deserts. The distribution range of shrubs, grasslands and wetlands is expanding, with the boundary moving westward and towards high-altitude areas. Under the influence of climate change, the productivity, carbon sequestration, and soil conservation capacity of the ecosystem on the Tibetan Plateau have improved, and changes in water conservation have shown significant special heterogeneity. The profound impact of climate change on phenology, plant growth rate, distribution range and species interactions of animals and plants, as well as biodiversity, requires further observation and research.
The “Beautiful Cryosphere” (BC) is the extension and application of the concept of a “Beautiful China” in the cryosphere. It is a synthesis of natural beauty, service beauty, and harmonious beauty, and a dialectical unity of benefits and harms. The concept of the BC is re-explained in the text by reviewing and re-interpreting the connotation of the BC, analyzing the relationship between the BC and “Beautiful China”. On this basis, the origin and development course of the BC are analyzed from the two main lines of the systematization of cryosphere science and the construction of a Beautiful China and its researches, from the discipline and social perspectives. The two levels of research content within the BC are further analyzed. Driven by advances in understanding, national needs, and scientific research projects over the past 20 years. The evolution of the BC research content includes three phases: an exploration stage from 2007 to 2015, the stage of expansion and summary between 2015 and 2020, and comprehensive deepening stage from 2020 to the present.
The impact of climate change on the industrial sector is gaining increasing attention. Both slow-onset and sudden climate factors have important impacts on the manufacturing, mining, and electricity industries. In the short term, the industrial sector mainly engages in passive adaptation under the influence of climate factors, while in the long term, it can engage in proactive adaptation when anticipating climate change and its potential consequences. Case studies and questionnaire surveys are important approaches to understanding and analyzing the adaptive behavior of individual enterprises, while various econometric models and integrated models still focus on assessing the impact of climate change on industrial output, exports and other aspects, lacking evaluation and analysis of the climate adaptation behavior of the industrial sector. The challenges of adapting to climate change involve both research and practice. In terms of research, the definition of climate adaptation is controversial, and there exists a lack of exploration regarding the effectiveness of adaptation, maladaptation, and adaptive limits. In practice, cost and decision-making barriers are the main challenges. In the future, in order to assist the industrial sector in better adapting to climate change, it is important to conduct more quantitative analyses, link the impacts of climate change on industry with adaptation strategies, consider the heterogeneity of regions, industries, and enterprises, construct models and evaluation systems to explore the complex underlying mechanisms of industrial climate adaptation.
The response of cryospheric hydrological processes to climate change, and its impacts has become a key issue in global change research. On a global scale, the mass loss of glaciers (i.e., the amount of meltwater from glaciers) has shown an accelerating trend over the past 20 years, ranging from (48±16) to (57.6±13) Gt/(10 a), while significant regional differences exist. At the watershed scale, the response of glacier meltwater to climate change varies among different watersheds, primarily depending on the size of the glaciers within each watershed and the compositional characteristics of glaciers of varying sizes. Although there are still differences in understanding the future trends of glacier meltwater across various glacier regions, particularly regarding the timing of critical inflection points, there is a consensus on the overall pattern of spatial changes in glacier meltwater. The future trend in global glacier meltwater is expected to be controlled by the rate of change in ice sheets and large glaciers at high latitudes. Global warming has led to significant changes in the intra-annual distribution of runoff during the snowmelt period, with a notable advance in the timing of snowmelt in most watersheds by up to 20 days. Additionally, early snowmelt runoff has significantly increased, with peak flow occurring earlier. It is projected that an increase in the rain-to-snow ratio in the future will lead to a reduction in snowpack storage, while simultaneously increasing sublimation, further advancing the timing of snowmelt runoff and reducing its contribution to watershed runoff. Climate change affects permafrost hydrological processes in several ways, including changes in the hydrological effects of the underlying surface, the runoff regulation function of the active layer, and variations in the supra-permafrost water. In terms of the hydrological effects of the underlying surface, enhanced freeze-thaw cycles, the expansion of thermokarst, and the deepening of the active layer directly impact surface runoff generation and flow processes, thereby affecting the intra-annual distribution of surface runoff. Regarding the runoff regulation function of the active layer, changes in the active layer not only influence surface runoff processes but also affect vertical and horizontal subsurface flow within the active layer, as well as the recharge and runoff generation capacity of the supra-permafrost water. The most important aspect is that the freeze-thaw dynamic and depth variation of the active layer play a role in regulating hydrological processes both within the year and over the long term. In terms of supra-permafrost water changes, various studies have shown that permafrost degradation has already impacted subsurface runoff to some extent, with the most significant effect being the direct contribution of permafrost degradation to river flow. In some watersheds, this contribution even reaches a substantial magnitude. The role of cryosphere hydrology at the watershed scale mainly manifests in three aspects: water source conservation, runoff replenishment, and hydrological regulation. Climate change has led to significant changes in the elements of the cryosphere, which in turn have altered the watershed functions of cryosphere hydrology. However, these changes vary greatly across different watersheds.
Climate change has led to rapid cryosphere changes in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, resulting in the increasing of the scale and frequency of cryosphere disasters. Consequently, cryosphere changes impose considerable threaten to the engineering safety, impacting the regional sustainable development and people’s well-being in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. This paper reviews the challenges faced by engineering in the cryosphere regions of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, and expounds the cryosphere changes in recent years and its future change trends. From the perspective of the types of cryosphere disasters and the observed influence of cryosphere disasters on engineering, the influence of cryosphere disasters caused by cryosphere changes on engineering design and safe operation, as well as the economic cost of engineering construction and maintenance are discussed. The coping strategies to mitigate the cryosphere changes and disasters under climate change are put forward, and the coping strategies and technical measures of engineering are discussed.
The cryosphere human geography and environment is a discipline to study geographical distribution pattern and evolution law of human activities (population, livelihood, culture, economy, politics, etc.) in the cryosphere, which is closely related to cryosphere science, climate change science, environmental science, sociology and other disciplines. This discipline mainly focuses on human activities in the cryosphere region, how humans adapt to the cryosphere environment, and the comprehensive impact of these environmental changes on human society. The results show that: (1) During 1970-2024, the keyword of indigenous people have the highest frequency and the highest correlation with other keywords, followed by sustainable development, culture, climate change adaptation, community and health. These keywords have a prominent position and are the focuses and hot spots of the research on the human geographical environment of the cryosphere. (2) Keyword clustering forms the 10 most representative clusters of “climate change adaptation, politics, sustainable development, indigenous people, channel, health, food security, resources, culture and tourism”. (3) From 1990 to 2020, the population in the Arctic showed a slight decrease trend, while the population in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau showed an increase trend. Due to the restriction of the cryosphere environment, the inter-regional population migration was weak. (4) The cryosphere culture is dominated by the traditional culture of sea hunting, hunting and nomadism; the religion is dominated by primitive polytheism; the ethnic and linguistic diversity; and it is significantly affected by modern lifestyle and climate change. (5) The Arctic cryosphere is dominated by traditional reindeer industry and fishing activities, while the exploitation of mineral, oil and gas resources is mainly operated by enterprises. At the same time, the loss of Arctic sea ice has boosted the import and export trade of Arctic countries. The regional economic structure of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau cryosphere is dominated by animal husbandry. (6) Opportunities and risks coexist in cryosphere tourism. As a result of climate warming, its tourism comfort is increasing, the accessibility of tourism around the Arctic is increasing, and the impact on snow and ice resources in middle and low latitudes is significant, which has affected the sustainability of ski tourism. (7) Accelerated melting of polar ice caps and sea ice has enhanced the availability of polar resources. As the interests of many countries are involved, all countries intend to expand their territory or sphere of influence and obtain more resources, which leads to the strengthening of the game between major powers. The geopolitical problems of the middle and low latitudes cryosphere mainly focus on “water conflict”. In view of the significant impact of climate change on the human and geographical environment of the cryosphere, more attention should be paid to three issues in the future: the improvement of the livelihood and welfare level of the indigenous peoples in the cryosphere, the autonomy of the indigenous people in the cryosphere, and the sustainable development goals and realization paths of the polar regions.
This paper systematically reviews major extreme weather and climate events in China’s regions under the intensified global warming background from 2010 to 2023. It focuses on analyzing the characteristics and socio-economic impacts of these events and further summarizes the latest progress in attribution research on these occurrences. Among the annual top ten significant weather and climate events in China from 2010 to 2023, extreme precipitation and flood events, along with typhoons, accounted for the highest proportion at 27% and 15%, respectively. Extreme heat, drought, cold-related low-temperature and snowfall events, as well as pollution events associated with haze and dust, each accounted for 11%-12%, while severe convective weather and other meteorological events accounted for 7% and 6%, respectively. With the intensification of global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme heat, extreme precipitation, and drought events in China have significantly increased. Trend attribution of extreme events focuses on the impact of climate change on their long-term trends. The increase in extreme heat and drought events is mainly attributed to anthropogenic forcing, while extreme precipitation, drought, wildfires, and other extreme events are also closely linked to human-induced warming. Human activities, particularly greenhouse gas emissions, are the primary drivers of the long-term changes in extreme events in China. Event attribution research focuses on changes in the probability and intensity of extreme events themselves. Studies based on circulation analog methods, atmospheric models, and storyline approaches indicate that human activities have significantly increased the intensity and frequency of extreme heat, drought, wildfire events, and compound hot-dry events, while slightly reducing the probability and intensity of cold events. The impact on precipitation events varies by event type, but most studies suggest that human activities have heightened the risk of extreme precipitation events. Despite significant progress in the attribution of extreme events in recent years, research gaps remain in understanding events like severe typhoons, severe convective weather, and other types of compound extreme events. Additionally, challenges persist due to insufficient observational data and the lag in climate model development. Establishing a real-time detection and attribution system will provide scientific guidance for the formulation and implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation policies, holding great significance.
Severe air pollution events by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) are the target of air pollution control in China. This paper reviews the research progress on the impacts of climate change on severe pollution events of PM2.5 and O3 in China in recent years. The results show that severe PM2.5 pollution mainly occurs under stagnant weather conditions, while severe O3 pollution mainly occurs under conditions of high temperature and low humidity. Climate change (including both anthropogenic global warming and the natural variability in the climate system) affects the local meteorological conditions that are conducive to severe pollution through changing large-scale circulation and regional circulation pattern. At present, the research on the impacts of climate change on severe PM2.5 pollution is quite advanced, with the capability of identifying the impacts of climate factors or global warming on typical severe pollution events or the long-term trends of such events. However, there are few studies on the impacts of climate change on severe ozone pollution.
There are usually two kinds of metrics being used to measure emissions, including Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP). These metrics are scientific basis for making emission policies and thus have important reference for policy makers in manufacturing and related economic fields. Meanwhile, it is significant to quantitatively understand the effects of emission and its reduction on the past and future climate change. How to accurately calculate and reasonably apply GWP and GTP to assess the impact of emission on global warming is an important scientific issue and a hot topic in climate change. Therefore, it has received extensive attention from the scientific community and related fields. IPCC AR5 and AR6 have set up special chapters for GWP and GTP to summarize and discuss the content of calculation methods and their application development. Based on the discussion of GWP and GTP in IPCC AR5 and AR6, this paper firstly summarizes the basic conceptions of emission metrics and their development in the past 30 years, then introduces the algorithms of common emission metrics of GWP and GTP in detail, finally gives the differences and applicability of the two metrics systematically. GTP is more closely related to global mean surface air temperature change, so it has potential advantages compared with GWP in evaluating the impact of greenhouse gases on surface air temperature. However, GTP also has some uncertainties, such as the influence of climate sensitivity factors, the heat exchange in the Earth system, and the selection of target time points. Then, the values of key emission indicators are summarized in the table for reference, including CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, CFC, PFC and aerosols. In addition, this paper also introduces some emerging emission metrics, such as Combined-GTP (CGTP) and GWP*. These new metrics are more precise, and more suitable for short-lived greenhouse gases.
This paper elaborates on the definition and origin of climate finance, analyzing its development, current status, challenges, and opportunities both domestically and internationally. Moreover, this paper explores how multilateral development banks are innovating in climate finance and discusses the lessons and value that can be learned from their approaches. Finally, the paper proposes seven recommendations to promote the future development of climate finance in China: improving the policy system of climate finance, establishing diversified financing channels, strengthening the construction of climate finance service systems, enhancing the application of digital technology, building a high-quality climate investment and finance project pool, exploring quantitative methods for climate finance, and intensifying international cooperation and exchanges.