Advancements in the understanding of radiative forcing, climate feedback, and climate sensitivity within the energy budget framework

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.205

Abstract

Abstract:

From the perspective of the energy framework, related research on Earth’s energy budget, effective radiative forcing, climate feedback, and climate sensitivity is systematically reviewed. Since the 1980s, Earth’s energy budget has increased by 0.28-0.52 W/m², primarily due to a sustained reduction in reflected solar radiation at the top of atmosphere. This is a crucial factor driving global warming during this period. These changes in the energy balance are closely linked to anthropogenic forcings and their effects on the climate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) indicates that during the period of 1750-2019, the best estimate of total anthropogenic effective radiative forcing is (2.72±0.76) W/m², which is projected to result in a global surface temperature increase of approximately 1.29 (1.00-1.65) ℃. Overall, climate feedback can offset the comprehensive disturbance caused by radiative forcing to the Earth system, helping to stabilize the climate state. The best estimate of net feedback provided by IPCC AR6 is -1.16 (-1.81--0.51) W/(m²·℃). To project future climate change, the IPCC AR6 provides best estimates for equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response as 3.0℃ and 1.8℃, respectively, with very likely ranges of 2.0-5.0℃ and 1.2-2.4℃. Based on the forcing-feedback framework under the energy budget balance, the scientific community has clarified the impact of external forcings, such as anthropogenic and natural factors, on climate change by quantifying the Earth’s energy budget and its long-term changes, and by distinguishing between radiative forcing and climate feedback. Based on the best estimates of climate feedback parameters and climate sensitivity, the magnitude of the climate response to forcing can be quantified, enabling reasonable projections of the future climate.

Key words: Earth’s energy budget, Effective radiative forcing, Climate feedback, Climate sensitivity

YU Xiao-Chao, ZHANG Hua, WANG Qiu-Yan, ZHAO Shu-Yun, WANG Fei, LIU Li-Ting, LIU Meng-Ting, MA Xin-Yu, YANG Dong-Dong, LI Shuai. Advancements in the understanding of radiative forcing, climate feedback, and climate sensitivity within the energy budget framework[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(2): 169-185.

Figures/Tables 5

Fig. 1 Diagram of the current global average energy balance (a) and the equivalent diagram without considering cloud effects (b)

Fig. 2 Global mean climate feedback

Table 1 Estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) based on multiple lines of evidence[6]℃

Table 2 Estimates of transient climate response (TCR) based on multiple lines of evidence[6] ℃

Fig. 3 Diagram of the forcing-feedback framework in the context of energy balance and its latest advances

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