The impact of climate warming on weather forecasting and coping strategies

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.159

Abstract

Abstract:

Weather forecasting is closely related to the social economy and people’s lives. With the intensification of global warming, extreme weather events are widespread, frequent and intense, and traditional weather forecasting will face more significant challenges. Firstly, the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events is expounded in this paper, and then the impacts of global climate change on conventional and extreme weather forecast are analyzed, and it is found that climate change will increase the difficulty of extreme weather forecasting, and the role of improving the accuracy of extreme weather forecasting in disaster prevention and mitigation under the “new normal” is also emphasized and further analysis of climate warming will make weather forecasting face new challenges. On this basis, this paper further puts forward new trends of future weather forecast operational developments as well as countermeasures and suggestions to adapt to climate change, such as vigorously developing high-resolution and multi-circle nested numerical prediction models, in-depth research on the mechanism and predictability of extreme weather events in the context of climate change, developing the combination of dynamic-statistical model based on mechanism and big data analysis, artificial intelligence technology and new forecasting methods, and improving the scientific literacy and ability of forecasters.

Key words: Climate warming, Weather forecasting, Coping strategies

DING Yi-Hui, LIU Yan-Ju, XU Ying, CHEN Yun. The impact of climate warming on weather forecasting and coping strategies[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(6): 682-688.

Figures/Tables 3

Fig. 1 Schematic representations of the probability density function of daily temperature, which tends to be approximately Gaussian, and daily precipitation, which has skewed distribution[8]. (Dashed lines represent a previous distribution and solid lines a changed distribution. The probability of occurrence, or frequency, of extremes is denoted by the shaded areas. In the case of temperature, changes in the frequencies of extremes are affected by changes (a) in the mean, (b) in the variance or shape, and (c) in both the mean and the variance. (d) In a skewed distribution such as that of precipitation, a change in the mean of the distribution generally affects its variability or spread, and thus an increase in mean precipitation would also imply an increase in heavy precipitation extremes)

Fig. 2 Time to error saturation for zonal wind (green), temperature (yellow), precipitation (blue) across the AM4 simulations [14]

Fig. 3 TS scores of the 24-hour forecast of heavy rain from the Central Meteorological Observatory from 1999 to 2023

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