Medium and long term power resource planning considering the coupled impact of climate risks

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.129

Abstract

Abstract:

It is very important and urgent to conduct a study on climate adaptation planning for power systems considering the impacts of climate risks on power supply and demand. In this study, a study was carried out on power system climate adaptation from a planning perspective: a medium and long term power resource planning model that considers the coupled impacts of climate risks was constructed to enhance the level of power system climate adaptation through the optimal allocation of power resources. The results show that the proportion of renewable energy generation in the planning scheme that considers the long-term climate change trend would increase despite the reduction of installed capacity, and the utilization level of renewable energy increases. The average annual construction investment would reduce. Under the planning scenario that considers the climate risk of extreme weather, the average annual installed capacity and generation capacity of controllable power sources would increase to support the integration of renewable energy and the safe and stable operation of power system, and the average annual generation capacity of renewable energy slightly decreases. And the average annual construction investment of the system would increase. The power planning scheme that takes into account the coupled impacts of climate risk can improve the utilization of renewable energy and system security in an integrated manner, and promote the high-quality development of renewable energy.

Key words: Climate risks, Power resource planning, Climate adaptation, Extreme weather, Power system

YUAN Jia-Hai, MOU Qi-Lin, ZHANG Hao-Nan, ZHAO Yi-Ying, ZHANG Jian. Medium and long term power resource planning considering the coupled impact of climate risks[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(5): 624-635.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1 Mechanism of climate risks impacts on power resource planning

Fig. 2 Effective capacity factor assessment results

Table 1 Cost parameters for key years

Table 2 Parameters under extreme cold weather constraints

Fig. 3 Planning results in the S1 conventional scenario

Fig. 4 Planning results in the S2 scenario

Fig. 5 Comparison of the share of renewable energy generation between the S2 and S1 scenarios

Fig. 6 Change in installed capacity of adjustable power supply (S3 minus S2)

Fig. 7 Change in power generation from various sources (S3 minus S2)

Fig. 8 Value of change in construction cost of investment in adjustable power supply (S3 minus S2)

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