Research on China’s methane emission reduction path based on SPAMC-Methane model

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.044

Abstract

Abstract:

As the second largest greenhouse gas after CO₂ and the most important short-lived greenhouse gas, methane emission reduction has gradually become a consensus from scientific cognition to action, becoming the focus of global climate negotiations and the key area of international climate cooperation. In order to support China’s methane emission reduction work, firstly, the global and China’s methane emission trends, characteristics and existing emission reduction actions were compared and analyzed. Then, a methane model (SPAMC-Methane) on the basis of Strategy and Planning Assessment Model for Climate Change in China was established to analyze the methane emission trend, reduction potential and path of China from 2022 to 2060 under the baseline scenario, energy transformation scenario and methane low-emission scenario, with 2022 as the benchmark. The results show that the methane emission is expected to peak in 2032 at 75.80 Mt under the energy transformation scenario, and before 2025 at 70.60 Mt under the methane low-emission scenario. Under the methane low-emission scenario, the methane emission will decrease by 12.3% in 2035 and 53.7% in 2060 from the peak level. Compared with the baseline scenario, the emission reduction contribution of the energy transition and technology enhancement in 2060 are about 62.9% and 37.1%, respectively under the methane low-emission scenario, and about 77% of the emission reduction will come from the coal mining and solid waste treatment sectors.

Key words: Methane, Emission characteristics, Carbon neutralization, Energy transformation, Low-emission, Emission reduction path

XIE Rui-Li, CHAI Qi-Min. Research on China’s methane emission reduction path based on SPAMC-Methane model[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(5): 593-610.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1 Methane emission trends of the world and major countries

Fig. 2 Trends in China’s sectoral methane emissions

Fig. 3 Methane emission structure of the world and major countries

Fig. 4 Methane emission intensities of China vs. the world, EU, and US in 2022

Fig. 5 Extraction and utilization of coal bed methane and coal mine methane in China

Fig. 6 Domestic waste disposal in China, 2005-2022

Fig. 7 Strategy and planning assessment model for climate change in China: methane (SPAMC-Methane)

Table 1 Key driving factors for methane emissions under different scenarios

Fig. 8 Trends of methane emissions in China under different scenarios [10?-12]

Fig. 9 Methane emission reduction path of China in 2035 and 2060

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