Evaluation of extreme precipitation indices performance based on NEX-GDDP downscaling data over China

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.253

Abstract

Abstract:

Taking the grid daily precipitation data (CN05.1) observed by China surface meteorological stations from 1986 to 2005 as the observation data, the performance of 21 global climate models were evaluated based on the high-resolution downscaling daily dataset NASA Earth Exchange/Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) with the resolution of 0.25° (~25 km×25 km). Six intensity indices, annual maximum daily precipitation (RX1D), the largest consecutive precipitation for five days (RX5D), total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT), simple daily precipitation intensity (SDII), cumulative precipitation in the 95 and 99 quantiles (R95p, R99p), and five frequency indices, heavy rain days (R50), cumulative precipitation days in the 95 and 99 quantiles (R95T, R99T), consecutive wet days (CWD), consecutive dry days (CDD), were selected for evaluation. The results show that: (1) It is difficult for models to capture the linear variation of extreme precipitation indices. Even for the best performance model, GFDL-ESM2G, only 45% of the simulated indices present the positive correlation with the observation. (2) The performance of models on the climatological means is better. CSIRO-MK3-6-0, NorESM1-M and MRI-CGCM3 have better performance on the intensity indices. The inmcm4, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MIROC5 have better performance on the frequency indices. The three best synthetical performance models are CSIRO-MK3-6-0, inmcm4 and MRI-CGCM3. (3) Considering the performance of 11 extreme precipitation indices in the climatological means and trend, GFDL-ESM2G, CSIRO-MK3-6-0 and ACCESS1-0 have relatively higher performance.

Key words: NEX-GDDP, China, Extreme precipitation, Models evaluation

WANG Qian-Zhi, LIU Kai, WANG Ming. Evaluation of extreme precipitation indices performance based on NEX-GDDP downscaling data over China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(1): 31-43.

Figures/Tables 8

Table 1 Basic information of 21 climate models

Table 2 The extreme precipitation indices used in this study

Fig. 1 The taylor diagram for performance of 21 models on simulating the trend of extreme precipitation indices in China from 1986 to 2005

Fig. 2 Ranking of 21 models for their performance on simulating the trend of extreme precipitation indices in China from 1986 to 2005 (a) RMSE, (b) σx/σy, (c) r, (d) combined of the three indicators above

Fig. 3 Same as Fig. 1, but for climatological means (1986-2005)

Fig. 4 Same as Fig. 2, but for climatological means (1986-2005)

Fig. 5 Climatological means of extreme precipitation indices from observations and optimal-model ensemble simulations in China from 1986 to 2005

Fig. 6 Same as Fig. 5, but for trend of extreme precipitation indices

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