Comprehensive assessment of “climate change-crop yield-economic impact” in seven sub-regions of China

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.222

Abstract

Abstract:

Agriculture is one of the most sensitive areas in response to climate change, and future crop yields may be profoundly affected. To quantitatively assess the final economic impact of climate change on crop yields, it is necessary to conduct a chain study on the comprehensive “climate change-crop yield-economic impact”. In this study systematic assessment and Meta regression methods were used to integrate 667 research results from 55 literatures, deriving the quantitative relationship between the main crop yields (rice, corn, wheat) in the seven sub-regions of China and future temperature and precipitation changes in the local area. Subsequently, the crop yields data were input to the improved multi-regional input-output model as the loss of the agricultural sector to evaluate the economic ripple effects (ERE) in and between the seven sub-regions. Results are as follows. (1) The impact of climate change on crop yields was mainly reflected in temperature increases, with an average yield loss of 2.6%-12.7% per℃, and with crop yields being more vulnerable in Northeast China and Northwest China than in other sub-regions. (2) Crop failure caused by climate change is estimated to have a more serious impact on China’s economy, each 1% drop in GDP due to crop failure will have an additional 17.8% ripple effects. (3) At the end of the 21st century, the ERE is -0.1% - 13.6% of GDP (negative values indicate economic gains) without considering CO₂ fertilization effect, of which the ERE in the most pessimistic pathway is equivalent to the total agricultural output in China in 2012. (4) Sub-regional-level results show an uneven distribution of economic impact in China, which is related to the regional economic development. Southwest China experiences 2.8-8.5 times more ERE than East China.

Key words: Climate change, Economic ripple effects (ERE), Crop yield, Systematic assessment, Meta regression analysis, Input-output analysis

LIU Yuan, WANG Fang, ZHANG Zheng-Tao, HUANG Cheng-Fang, CHEN Xi, LI Ning. Comprehensive assessment of “climate change-crop yield-economic impact” in seven sub-regions of China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(4): 455-465.

Figures/Tables 6

Table 1 A basic overview of 19 GCMs in this paper

Fig. 1 The relationship between temperature change and precipitation change rate and crop yield change rate in seven sub-regions of China (The curves represent 95% confidence levels)

Fig. 2 The trend of crop yield change in different sub-regions of China under RCP8.5 (The curves represent 95% confidence levels)

Fig. 3 The estimation of economic ripple effects (ERE) caused by the impact of climate change on crop production in China from 2020 to 2099 (The shaded areas represent the 95% confidence levels)

Table 2 The distribution of ERE as a direct economic damage (DED) function

Fig. 4 The estimation of ERE caused by the impact of climate change on grain production in different sub-regions of China from 2020 to 2099

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