Climate Change Research ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (3): 243-252.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.135
Previous Articles Next Articles
Zhang Mengting, Zhang Yujing, Tong Jinhe, Li Kuo, Pan Jie, Xu Yinlong
Received:
Revised:
Online:
Published:
Abstract:
Based on future climate data under RCP4.5 scenario generated from the regional climate modeling system (PRECIS), climatic northern boundary of winter wheat would move northward 147.8 km in 2071-2097 and possible planting area would increase by 1.86 ×105 km2 relative to 1981-2010. The variations of agro-climatic resources under RCP4.5 scenario in the potential northward region of winter wheat were analyzed based on the nine selected indexes of agro-climatic resources. Results indicated that: (1) compared with the climate baseline (1961-1990), the light resource in potential northward region would decrease; heat resource would significantly increase with an enhanced variability in the last 30 years of the 21st century; precipitation resource shows an overall slight increasing trend but with an greater fluctuation; (2) in the time slice 2030T (2021—2050), 2050T (2041—2070), and 2070T (2061—2090), light resource would decrease more in the northeast of study area, while less in the southwest; heat resource would increase more in northern area than southern part; precipitation resource would increase obviously in northeast of the potential northward region.
Key words: RCP4.5, winter wheat, northern boundary, agro-climatic resources
Zhang Mengting, Zhang Yujing, Tong Jinhe, Li Kuo, Pan Jie, Xu Yinlong. Variations of Agro-Climatic Resources Under a Future Climate Scenario in the Potential Northward Region of Winter Wheat[J]. Climate Change Research, 2017, 13(3): 243-252.
0 / / Recommend
Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX
URL: https://www.climatechange.cn/EN/10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.135
https://www.climatechange.cn/EN/Y2017/V13/I3/243