关键词: 气候谈判, 效用, 博弈, 策略

Abstract: Consensus and disagreements between China and the US are the key factors influencing the direction that global climate negotiation is heading for. By taking into account the uncertainties of temperature increment and its impact on GDP growth, together with the positive, negative and spillover effects of climate change investment on utility, a strategic simulation model including China and the US is developed based on utility and game theory, and sensitivity analyses are also carried out. The results show that first-mover disadvantage exists in the game, and the scale of each country’s climate change investment under non-cooperate scenario is too tiny to reach the 2℃increment target. To ensure the stability and win-win basis for global cooperation, the simulation results also indicate that it makes sense to pay attention to the assistance and compensation of technology and funding to China.

Key words: climate negotiation, utility, game theory, strategy