关键词: 旅游业, 碳排放, 低碳转型, 脱钩, 情景分析

Abstract: Under carbon neutrality targets, the low-carbon transition of the tourism industry requires a strategic shift from isolated emission accounting to systemic pathway assessments. To identify emission structures, decoupling barriers, and mitigation priorities, this study develops a comprehensive Hybrid Accounting, Diagnosis, and Simulation (HADS) framework. This framework integrates bottom-up direct emission inventories with an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output model, applies decomposition and decoupling diagnostics, and translates these insights into dynamic scenario projections. The framework is applied to Macao SAR for the 2010–2024 period. The results reveal that total tourism emissions peaked at 3550.55 kt CO₂e in 2019, plummeted to 1122.90 kt CO₂e in 2022 under pandemic shocks, and rebounded to 2692.19 kt CO₂e by 2024. Cross-border aviation, lodging, and gaming operations emerge as the dominant sources, jointly accounting for 83.8% of the total. Furthermore, the driver diagnostics identify transport demand coupling, building baseload rigidity, and external supply-chain constraints as the core structural barriers impeding a stable decoupling between tourism economic growth and emissions. Forward-looking scenario projections to 2035 indicate that under an enhanced transition pathway, coordinated interventions spanning building energy efficiency, grid decarbonization, and transport restructuring can reduce the projected emission trajectory to 2016.53 kt CO₂e, achieving a 43.21% reduction from the 2019 peak. Ultimately, HADS provides a novel perspective and a replicable toolkit for service-oriented tourist economies to transition from generalized climate targets to precision-guided, sector-specific decarbonization strategies.

Key words: Tourism, Carbon emissions, Low-carbon transition, Decoupling, Scenario analysis