关键词: 气候变化减缓, 碳达峰碳中和, 减排路径, 多模型比较, 能源转型, 综合评估模型（IAM）

Abstract: China’s low carbon transition under the “Dual Carbon” goal has entered a critical stage characterized by deep, substantive implementation and coordinated action across multiple sectors. In the face of complex technological, economic, and social uncertainties inherent in long-term and deep decarbonization, scenario assessments based on a single model are often subject to structural biases arising from differences in underlying mechanisms and parameter assumptions. Consequently, systematically conducting multi-model intercomparison studies to extract robust, cross-model consensus through cross-validation has emerged as a crucial way for objectively identifying transition dynamics and mitigating decision-making risks. This study synthesizes and compares the latest results from 22 domestic and international energy and climate models published since 2021. It provides a systematic assessment of China’s low carbon transition pathways under the “Dual Carbon” goal in terms of greenhouse gas emissions trajectories, energy system evolution, energy and resource security risks, and the investment requirements and economic costs of the transition. The results show that China’s carbon emissions are likely to peak in the early years of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan (FYP) period and decline by approximately 10% from the peak level by 2035. Both primary (electric heat equivalent) and final energy consumption are projected to peak around 2030. By 2060, the share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption (coal equivalent) and the electrification rate of final energy demand are expected to rise to approximately 80% (10th–90th percentile range: 77%–97%) and 62% (10th–90th percentile range: 56%–77%), respectively. Although the low-carbon transition can fundamentally reverse China’s dependence on imported oil and gas, it will also give rise to new energy security challenges, particularly those related to power system flexibility and the supply of critical minerals. The additional investment required to achieve carbon neutrality in the energy supply sector is estimated at RMB 123–246 trillion. Based on these findings, we recommend seizing the critical window of opportunity during the Fifteenth FYP to accelerate forward-looking emission reduction deployments. It is imperative to construct a deep decarbonization paradigm characterized by multi-sectoral coordination and multi-gas synergy. Furthermore, concerted efforts must be concentrated on overcoming the bottlenecks in strategic frontier technology chains, such as hydrogen energy, long-duration energy storage, and CCUS (carbon capture, utilization, and storage) to facilitate a comprehensive socioeconomic transition that is secure, economically viable, and sustainable.

Key words: Climate change mitigation, Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, Decarbonization pathways, Multi-model intercomparison project, Energy transition, Integrated assessment model (IAM)