关键词: 气候风险, 压力测试, 情景模拟, 风险传导, 量化评估

Abstract: The dual impacts of physical risks from global climate change and transition risks driven by low-carbon transformation continuously threaten the stability of the financial system and industrial sustainable development. As a special risk management tool, climate risk stress testing quantifies extreme climate shocks, identifies risk transmission chains and calculates potential losses, providing scientific support for financial risk prevention, industrial transformation and policy formulation. This paper clarifies the connotation, characteristics and theoretical system of climate risk stress testing, constructs a unified methodological framework based on two classic paradigms (top-down and bottom-up), and analyzes core technical links including scenario construction, real economy-financial risk transmission and quantitative modeling. It summarizes domestic and overseas application practices in supervision and academic research, and discusses practical difficulties such as data barriers, insufficient scenario adaptability, and poor connection between macro and micro models, finally prospects the future development trends. The research shows that climate risk stress testing is evolving toward cross-departmental collaboration and quantitative precision. Based on local climatic characteristics and industrial structure, China needs to promote dynamic scenario optimization, model coupling and cross-domain data integration to improve the scientificity and operability of testing, and comprehensively enhance the climate resilience of the financial system.

Key words: Climate risk, Stress testing, Scenario simulation, Risk transmission, Quantitative assessment