关键词: 碳预算, 气候预算, 气候治理, 城市低碳转型, 国际经验

Abstract: With the acceleration of global urbanization, cities have become the primary source of carbon emissions and key actors in addressing climate change. To systematically guide urban low-carbon transitions, international organizations such as C40 and pioneering cities including Oslo, London, and New York have progressively developed and implemented an urban carbon budget management system centered on the concept of a "climate budget." This system deeply integrates total carbon emission control targets with urban governance processes (especially fiscal budgeting), forming a closed-loop governance model characterized by "target orientation, data-driven approaches, action support, multi-stakeholder collaboration, and dynamic optimization." This paper reviews international experiences in the methodological evolution, case studies, and core mechanisms of urban carbon budgets. It summarizes key practices in strategic positioning, data infrastructure, action systems, financial guarantees, evaluation and optimization, and collaborative governance. In the context of China’s comprehensive implementation of the dual-control system of total carbon emissions and carbon intensity during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030), this paper analyzes the implications for developing an urban carbon budget system and proposes recommendations for establishing such a system in China, including clarifying strategic positioning, implementing data engineering, promoting deep integration of budgeting with planning and finance, establishing a closed-loop evaluation and dynamic optimization system, and introducing climate consistency assessments. The aim is to provide a reference for systematically advancing provincial and municipal carbon budget management and ensuring that all regions fulfill their emission reduction responsibilities.

Key words: Carbon budget, Climate budget, Climate governance, Urban low-carbon transition, International experiences