中国氢能需求的多维动态预测：基于多行业终端消耗的系统动力学建模与区域氢能产业布局研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.265

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用系统动力学方法，构建了涵盖三大产业和生活用氢的需求预测模型，并细化至合成氨、甲醇、石油炼化、钢铁等主要耗氢行业。通过模拟低速、基准和高速3种社会经济发展情景，测度全国及七大地理区域2022—2060年的氢能需求总量与结构演变特征。结果显示，我国氢能需求将持续强劲增长，2060年总量有望突破1.3亿t，约为2020年的4倍；需求结构将经历由“传统化工主导”向“多元应用并重”的转型，交通部门增长最迅猛，2060年占比将达29.2%；分区域看，华东、华北和华南是未来氢能需求的核心区域，2060年合计占比高达56.5%，集中于交通、电力等新兴行业。而西北、东北地区仍以传统工业用氢为主，但西北地区凭借其可再生能源优势，电力行业用氢增长显著。最后提出差异化区域发展与基础设施布局建议，以优化氢能供需匹配，助力能源低碳转型。

关键词: 氢能需求, 多行业, 七大区域, 氢能结构, 系统动力学

Abstract:

Given the complex and dynamically evolving nature of hydrogen energy development, a medium-to-long-term forecasting model for regional hydrogen demand has been developed based on system dynamics methodology. This model incorporates eight industry-specific subsystems, including synthetic ammonia, methanol, petroleum refining, and steel manufacturing. Key driving factors behind hydrogen energy demand across various industries have been systematically identified and analyzed, encompassing improvements in energy efficiency, technological advancements, policy incentives, and shifts in market demand. By simulating three socioeconomic scenarios, the evolution of total hydrogen demand and structural characteristics was analyzed across China and its seven geographical regions from 2022 to 2060. The results indicate that driven by the development of hydrogen energy and energy transition, national and regional hydrogen demand in China maintains a continuous growth trend. National hydrogen demand will reach 33.94 million to 48.38 million tonnes in 2030 and soar to 110 million to 160 million tonnes in 2060. Under the baseline scenario, demand in 2060 will surge by 391.4% compared with that in 2020. East, North and South China are the core regions for future hydrogen demand, accounting for as high as 56.5% of the total national demand in 2060, with a pronounced regional polarization effect. Meanwhile, the structure of hydrogen demand evolves from chemical industry-oriented to diversified development. Hydrogen demand from traditional industries accounts for over 65% before 2030, while demand from emerging sectors rises after 2040, among which the transportation sector witnesses the most rapid growth, with its share reaching 29.2% in 2060. Distinct disparities exist in regional transformation pathways. Hydrogen demand from emerging sectors in core regions such as East China will surpass that from traditional industries in 2060. Northeast and Northwest China will remain dominated by traditional industries, while the Northwest will see significant growth in power-sector hydrogen consumption due to its renewable energy advantages. The paper concludes by proposing differentiated regional strategies and infrastructure layouts to optimize supply-demand matching and facilitate the low-carbon transition of the energy system.

Key words: Hydrogen demand, Multiple industries, Seven regions, Hydrogen structure, System dynamics

李茹, 鲁雅溪, 杨珂嘉. 中国氢能需求的多维动态预测：基于多行业终端消耗的系统动力学建模与区域氢能产业布局研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2026, 22(3): 352-368.

LI Ru, LU Ya-Xi, YANG Ke-Jia. Multi-dimensional dynamic forecasting of China’s hydrogen demand: a system-dynamics approach to multi-sector end-use modelling and regional hydrogen industry layout[J]. Climate Change Research, 2026, 22(3): 352-368.

图/表 18

图1 研究框架图

Fig. 1 Research framework

图2 合成氨子系统因果关系注：图中“+”表示变量间存在正向促进作用，“-”表示变量间存在负向抑制作用，下同。

Fig. 2 Causal relationships within the ammonia-synthesis subsystem

图3 甲醇子系统因果关系

Fig. 3 Causal relationships within the methanol subsystem

图4 钢铁子系统因果关系

Fig. 4 Causal relationships within the iron-and-steel subsystem

图5 石油炼化子系统因果关系

Fig. 5 Causal relationships within the crude oil subsystem in petroleum refining

图6 电力子系统因果关系

Fig. 6 Causal relationships within the power-generation subsystem

图7 供热子系统因果关系

Fig. 7 Causal relationships within the district-heating subsystem

图8 交通子系统因果关系

Fig. 8 Causal relationships within the transportation subsystem

表1 各区域关于氢能需求预测的关键参数

Table 1 Key parameters for hydrogen demand forecasting by regions

表2 不同掺氢比的参数数值

Table 2 Parameter values for different hydrogen blending ratio

表3 氢能需求预测情景设置

Table 3 Scenario design for hydrogen demand forecasting

表4 各行业终端用能中氢能占比年平均变化幅度

Table 4 Year-on-year average variation of hydrogen share in sectoral end-use energy %

表5 各区域不同行业终端用能中氢能占比变化情况

Table 5 Regional and sectoral variations in hydrogen penetration in final energy consumption

表6 氢能需求预测模型的有效性检验结果

Table 6 Validation results for the hydrogen demand forecasting model

表7 2022年氢能需求模拟结果

Table 7 Hydrogen demand simulation results for 2022

图9 不同情景下全国氢能需求量

Fig. 9 National hydrogen energy demand under different scenarios

图10 不同情景下氢能需求结构注：从内到外依次为2030年、2040年、2050年和2060年的氢能需求结构。

Fig. 10 Hydrogen energy demand structure under different scenarios. (From the inside to the outside, it shows the hydrogen demand structure for 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060, respectively)

图11 不同情景下各区域氢能需求结构

Fig. 11 Hydrogen energy demand structure by region under different scenarios

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