青藏高原对极端天气气候影响: 回顾与展望

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2026.019

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2026, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (3): 271-287.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2026.019

青藏高原对极端天气气候影响: 回顾与展望

包文¹, 马婷婷²(), 刘艳婕³, 汤艺琼⁴, 段安民⁵

¹ 中国环境科学研究院，北京 100012
² 中国气象局气象干部培训学院，北京 100081
³ 中国科学院大气物理研究所，北京 100029
⁴ 中国气象局生态系统碳源汇重点开放实验室，无锡学院，无锡 214105
⁵ 厦门大学，厦门 361005

收稿日期:2026-01-19 修回日期:2026-03-23 出版日期:2026-05-30 发布日期:2026-05-22
通讯作者: 马婷婷
作者简介:包文，女，助理研究员
基金资助:
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(2025YSKY-49);生态环境标准预研究项目(BZY-2024-34)

Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on extreme weather and climate: review and outlook

BAO Wen¹, MA Ting-Ting²(), LIU Yan-Jie³, TANG Yi-Qiong⁴, DUAN An-Min⁵

¹ Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
² China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081, China
³ Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100029, China
⁴ Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink, China Meteorological Administration (ECSS-CMA), Wuxi University, Wuxi 214105, China
⁵ Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China

Received:2026-01-19 Revised:2026-03-23 Online:2026-05-30 Published:2026-05-22
Contact: MA Ting-Ting

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在全球变暖背景下，青藏高原增暖加速，极端高温、极端降水及其复合事件发生频率和强度显著变化，并通过热源异常、积雪-反照率反馈、高位涡系统及遥相关过程，对中国东部、南亚以及欧亚大陆中高纬地区的极端天气气候产生深远影响。文中系统回顾了近十年，尤其是近五年来关于青藏高原极端天气气候变化特征及其对周边和下游区域影响机制的研究进展，重点总结了极端气温与极端降水的变化特征，高原积雪与感热加热的气候效应，高原高位涡系统对下游极端事件的触发作用，以及青藏高原在不同纬度带相互作用中的“桥梁”角色。在此基础上，讨论了当前研究面临的主要科学问题与不足，并展望未来研究方向，旨在为深化青藏高原气候动力学认识、提升极端天气气候预测能力以及服务防灾减灾与生态安全提供参考。

关键词: 青藏高原影响, 热力和动力异常, 桥梁作用, 极端天气气候, 研究进展

Abstract:

Under the background of global warming, warming over the Tibetan Plateau has accelerated, with pronounced changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme high-temperature events, extreme precipitation events, and their compound occurrences. Through thermal anomalies, snow-albedo feedback, high potential vorticity systems, and teleconnection processes, the Tibetan Plateau exerts profound influences on extreme weather and climate over eastern China, South Asia, and the mid- to high-latitude regions of Eurasia. This paper systematically reviews research progress over the past decade (particularly the last five years) on the characteristics of extreme weather and climate changes over the Tibetan Plateau and the mechanisms by which they affect surrounding and downstream regions. Emphasis is placed on the evolution of extreme temperature and precipitation, the climatic effects of plateau snow cover and sensible heat heating, the triggering role of plateau high potential vorticity systems on downstream extreme events, as well as the “bridge” role of the Tibetan Plateau in interactions across different latitudes. On this basis, the major scientific issues and limitations in current research are discussed, and future research directions are outlined. This review aims to provide reference for deepening the understanding of Tibetan Plateau climate dynamics, improving the prediction of extreme weather and climate, and supporting disaster risk reduction and ecological security.

Key words: Tibetan Plateau impacts, Thermal and dynamical anomalies, Bridge role, Extreme weather and climate, Research progress

包文, 马婷婷, 刘艳婕, 汤艺琼, 段安民. 青藏高原对极端天气气候影响: 回顾与展望[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2026, 22(3): 271-287.

BAO Wen, MA Ting-Ting, LIU Yan-Jie, TANG Yi-Qiong, DUAN An-Min. Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on extreme weather and climate: review and outlook[J]. Climate Change Research, 2026, 22(3): 271-287.

图/表 4

表1 长江流域极端降水事件前青藏高原高位涡信号出现时间及其经度位置

Table 1 Timing and location of high potential vorticity signals over the Tibetan Plateau preceding extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River basin

图1 2008年1月17日00时（世界时）至18日18时位涡（阴影，10-6 K?m2/(s?kg))、位温（等值线，K）和风场（矢量，m/s）沿33?N的垂直剖面[101] 注：图中17T00指17日00时（世界时），依此类推。

Fig. 1 Vertical cross section along 33?N of potential vorticity (shading, 10-6 K?m2/(s?kg)), potential temperature (contour, K), and wind (vector, m/s) from 00 UTC on 17 January to 18 UTC on 18 January 2008 at 6 h intervals[101]

图2 高原东部地表附近位涡重构及后续位涡平流引起下游气旋式环流发展的示意图[101]

Fig. 2 Schematic of potential vorticity restructuring in the region of the Tibetan Plateau and its following impact of potential vorticity advection on downstream cyclogenesis development[101]

图3 青藏高原调节全球环流的示意图[6](a)夏季，(b)冬季注：图中AMOC为大西洋经圈翻转环流；PMOC为太平洋经圈翻转环流。

Fig. 3 Schematic view of the TP-modulated global circulations in summer (a) and winter (b)[6]

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青藏高原对极端天气气候影响: 回顾与展望

Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on extreme weather and climate: review and outlook

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