大南昌都市圈土地利用碳排放与新型城镇化的异质性特征及影响强度分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.140

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 研究都市圈土地利用碳排放与新型城镇化水平的时空差异及其互动关系，对于缓解我国碳减排压力，实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。基于排放系数法、锡尔系数法和地理探测器模型等方法，探究大南昌都市圈土地利用碳排放与新型城镇化水平的时空差异及区域差异特征，并分析了土地利用碳排放对新型城镇化水平的交互影响强度。结果表明：研究区土地利用碳排放增势逐渐放缓，中部经济较为发达的地区土地利用碳排放量较大，新型城镇化水平稳步增长，且二者整体区域差距均逐年减小。不同新型城镇化因素对土地利用碳排放空间分异的影响强度具有明显的差异性。土地利用效率和人口城镇化对研究区土地利用碳排放空间分异的影响持续增加，经济发展对研究区土地利用碳排放的影响逐渐减弱。土地利用效率&经济发展水平、经济发展水平&人口城镇化的复合作用对研究区土地利用碳排放的空间异质性产生较大影响。在进行低碳城镇化建设过程中研究区应侧重土地利用效率、劳动力流向等方面的优化调整，因地制宜地采取不同的政策措施优化城镇建设，缓解城市碳减排压力，助力自然生态环境与社会经济绿色可持续发展。

关键词: 土地利用碳排放, 新型城镇化, 影响强度, 低碳建设, 大南昌都市圈

Abstract:

It is an urgent need to explore the spatiotemporal differences in land use carbon emissions and new-type urbanization level and their interaction relations in metropolitan areas, which is of great significance for reducing the pressure of carbon emission reduction and realizing the “dual-carbon” goal as scheduled in China. Taking Nanchang metropolitan area as the study area, the emission coefficient method, Theil coefficient method and geographical detector model were used to explore the spatiotemporal differences, regional differences and influence degree between land use carbon emissions and new-type urbanization level. The research results showed that the growth of land use carbon emissions in the study area gradually slowed down, while the carbon emissions in the central economically developed areas were larger. While the new-type urbanization level increased steadily, and the overall gap decreased year by year. The impacts of different new-type urbanization factors on the spatial differentiation of land use carbon emissions varied greatly. The effects of land use efficiency and population urbanization level on the spatial differentiation of land use carbon emissions continued to increase, while the effects of economic development level gradually weakened. The combined effects of the new-type urbanization factors were nonlinear, and the combined effects of land use efficiency & economic development level and economic development level & population urbanization level have a greater impact on the spatial differentiation of land use carbon emissions. The optimization and adjustment of land use efficiency and labor flow should be focused during the process of low-carbon urbanization, and different policies and measures should be adopted according to local conditions to optimize urban construction, so that the pressure of urban carbon emission reduction will be relieve and the sustainable development of natural ecological environment and social economy will be promoted.

Key words: Land use carbon emissions, New-type urbanization, Influence intensity, Low-carbon urban construction, Nanchang metropolitan area

陈艺, 陈银蓉, 蔡海生, 陈坤, 刘敏. 大南昌都市圈土地利用碳排放与新型城镇化的异质性特征及影响强度分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(3): 387-399.

CHEN Yi, CHEN Yin-Rong, CAI Hai-Sheng, CHEN Kun, LIU Min. The analysis of heterogeneity characteristics and influence intensity between land use carbon emissions and new-type urbanization in Nanchang metropolitan area[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(3): 387-399.

图/表 11

图1 研究区行政区划及地理位置示意图

Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of the administrative division and geographical location of the study area

表1 新型城镇化水平综合测度指标体系

Table 1 The comprehensive evaluation index system of new-type urbanization level

表2 研究区2005和2018年土地利用碳排放及新型城镇化水平总体差异特征

Table 2 Overall difference feature of land use carbon emissions and new-type urbanization level in the study area in 2005 and 2018

图4 研究区2005—2018年土地利用碳排放及新型城镇化水平总体差异系数变化

Fig. 4 The changes of the overall difference coefficients of land use carbon emissions and new-type urbanization level in the study area during 2005-2018

图5 研究区2005—2018年土地利用碳排放及新型城镇化水平区域间差异系数变化

Fig. 5 The changes of inter-regional difference coefficients of land use carbon emissions and new-type urbanization level in the study area during 2005-2018

图6 研究区2005—2018年土地利用碳排放及新型城镇化水平区域内差异系数变化

Fig. 6 he changes of intra-regional difference coefficients of land use carbon emissions and new-type urbanization level in the study area during 2005-2018

表3 2005—2018年研究区新型城镇化因素对土地利用碳排放空间分异的单因子探测结果

Table 3 The single-factor detection results of new-type urbanization factors on the spatial differentiation of land use carbon emissions in the study area during 2005-2018

表4 研究区新型城镇化因素对土地利用碳排放空间分异的交互影响强度变化

Table 4 Change of the interaction strength of new-type urbanization factors on the spatial differentiation of land use carbon emissions

表5 2005—2018年研究区新型城镇化因素对土地利用碳排放空间分异的交互探测结果

Table 5 The interactive detection results of new-type urbanization factors on the spatial differentiation of land use carbon emissions in the study area during 2005-2018

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