排放物气候效应指标GWP和GTP的研究进展

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.167

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (1): 69-77.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.167

所属专题：创刊20周年纪念专栏

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排放物气候效应指标GWP和GTP的研究进展

陈琪¹^,²(), 张华²(), 柳丽婷³, 王秋艳⁴, 周喜讯¹, 谢冰⁵

1 中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心，北京 100081
2 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室，北京 100081
3 南京信息工程大学，南京 210044
4 近地面探测技术重点实验室，无锡 241035
5 中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室，国家气候中心，北京 100081

收稿日期:2024-07-03 修回日期:2024-10-17 出版日期:2025-01-30 发布日期:2024-12-26
通讯作者: 张华，女，研究员，huazhang@cma.gov.cn
作者简介:陈琪，男，助理研究员，chenqi@cma.gov.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3701202);国家自然基金面上项目(42275039)

A review of emission metrics GWP and GTP

CHEN Qi¹^,²(), ZHANG Hua²(), LIU Li-Ting³, WANG Qiu-Yan⁴, ZHOU Xi-Xun¹, XIE Bing⁵

1 CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing 100081, China
2 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CMA, Beijing 100081, China
3 Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
4 Science and technology on near-surface detection laboratory, Wuxi 214035, China
5 CMA Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2024-07-03 Revised:2024-10-17 Online:2025-01-30 Published:2024-12-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

衡量排放物气候效应的指标有两种最为常见：全球增温潜能（GWP）和全球温变潜能（GTP)。这些指标是制定排放政策的基本科学依据，对制造业和相关经济部门的政策制定者有重要的参考价值，同时对理解排放和减排水平对过去和未来气候变化的定量影响有重要的科学意义。文中围绕IPCC第五和第六次评估报告针对GWP和GTP的讨论，对排放物气候效应指标的基本概念及其30余年的发展史进行了综述，详细介绍了常见排放物气候效应指标GWP和GTP的概念和算法，并系统分析了两者的区别和适用性。GTP与全球平均地表气温变化的关系更密切，因此在评估温室气体对地表气温的影响方面具有潜在优势。然而，GTP也存在一些不确定性，例如气候敏感性因素的影响、地球系统中的热交换以及目标时间点的选择。此外，还介绍了一些新的排放物气候效应指标，并探讨了排放物气候效应指标未来的发展方向。

关键词: 排放物气候效应指标, 全球增温潜能（GWP）, 全球温变潜能（GTP）

Abstract:

There are usually two kinds of metrics being used to measure emissions, including Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP). These metrics are scientific basis for making emission policies and thus have important reference for policy makers in manufacturing and related economic fields. Meanwhile, it is significant to quantitatively understand the effects of emission and its reduction on the past and future climate change. How to accurately calculate and reasonably apply GWP and GTP to assess the impact of emission on global warming is an important scientific issue and a hot topic in climate change. Therefore, it has received extensive attention from the scientific community and related fields. IPCC AR5 and AR6 have set up special chapters for GWP and GTP to summarize and discuss the content of calculation methods and their application development. Based on the discussion of GWP and GTP in IPCC AR5 and AR6, this paper firstly summarizes the basic conceptions of emission metrics and their development in the past 30 years, then introduces the algorithms of common emission metrics of GWP and GTP in detail, finally gives the differences and applicability of the two metrics systematically. GTP is more closely related to global mean surface air temperature change, so it has potential advantages compared with GWP in evaluating the impact of greenhouse gases on surface air temperature. However, GTP also has some uncertainties, such as the influence of climate sensitivity factors, the heat exchange in the Earth system, and the selection of target time points. Then, the values of key emission indicators are summarized in the table for reference, including CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFC, CFC, PFC and aerosols. In addition, this paper also introduces some emerging emission metrics, such as Combined-GTP (CGTP) and GWP*. These new metrics are more precise, and more suitable for short-lived greenhouse gases.

Key words: Emission metric, Global warming potential (GWP), Global temperature change potential (GTP)

陈琪, 张华, 柳丽婷, 王秋艳, 周喜讯, 谢冰. 排放物气候效应指标GWP和GTP的研究进展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(1): 69-77.

CHEN Qi, ZHANG Hua, LIU Li-Ting, WANG Qiu-Yan, ZHOU Xi-Xun, XIE Bing. A review of emission metrics GWP and GTP[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(1): 69-77.

图/表 4

图1 CH4的GWP随积分时间的变化注：数据来源于IPCC AR5图8.29。

Fig. 1 The variation of methane GWP with integration time

表1 主要气体的排放物气候效应指标

Table 1 Emission metrics of greenhouse gases

表2 碳类气溶胶的排放物气候效应指标

Table 2 Emission metrics of carbon aerosol

图2 不同的排放物气候效应指标选择下，使用CH4估计的累积等效CO2排放计算得到的全球地表气温变化注：其他颜色实线为使用该排放物气候效应指标估计得到的等效CO2累积排放,本图来源于IPCC AR6 图7.22。

Fig. 2 Explores how cumulative carbon dioxide equivalent emissions estimated for methane vary under different emissions metric choices and how estimates of the global surface air temperature (GSAT) change deduced from these cumulative emissions compare to the actual temperature response computed with the two-layer emulator

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排放物气候效应指标GWP和GTP的研究进展

A review of emission metrics GWP and GTP

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