湖北省风光发电日内互补特征及统计最优归一化出力权重配比研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2026.076

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为揭示湖北省风光资源日内互补特征并优化风光联合出力权重配置，本文基于1995—2024年ERA5逐小时再分析资料，构建风电和光伏归一化出力模型，并采用相关系数、综合互补指数、变异系数和联合出力标准差等指标，分析湖北省风光资源相位关系、联合出力平滑效应及统计最优风电权重占比。结果表明：湖北省风光资源具有明显的日内互补特征，但空间差异显著。中东部平原和丘陵区多表现为“昼光夜风”的错峰结构，综合互补性较强；西部山地和部分高海拔区风速与辐射日变化更趋同相，互补性相对较弱。以联合归一化出力标准差最小为目标，全省统计最优风电权重占比约为68%，对应联合出力波动明显降低；引入土地利用基础约束后，可开发网格占比为49.15%，统计最优风电权重占比调整为67%，说明基础用地约束主要影响可开发空间范围，对省域最优权重关系影响较小。典型不利天气情景下，风光组合仍能降低单一光伏出力波动，但主导支撑能源随天气类型不同而变化。地形分层结果进一步表明，海拔升高会增强风速与辐射日变化同相性，并提高统计最优风电权重占比。研究结果可为湖北省新能源站址布局和源侧风光协同配置提供参考。

关键词: 风光互补, 日内变化, 归一化出力, 综合互补指数, 风电权重, 湖北省

Abstract:

To alleviate output fluctuations under high shares of renewable energy and optimize the configuration of wind-solar hybrid systems in Hubei province, this study used long-term ERA5 reanalysis data from 1995 to 2024 to construct a normalized wind power output model based on the power curve of a near-100 m low-wind-speed reference turbine, together with a normalized photovoltaic output model considering plane-of-array irradiance and 2 m air temperature correction. Pearson correlation coefficient, comprehensive complementarity index, coefficient of variation, and the standard deviation of combined normalized output were employed to evaluate the intra-day complementary characteristics of wind and solar resources, the smoothing effect of joint power output, and the statistically optimal wind-solar ratio in Hubei province. The results show that wind and solar resources in Hubei exhibit a pronounced intra-day complementary pattern characterized by “daytime solar and nighttime wind”, although clear spatial heterogeneity exists, with stronger complementarity in the central and eastern plains and hilly areas than in the western mountainous regions. Based on the minimum standard deviation criterion of combined normalized output, the statistically optimal wind power weight for the whole province is about 68%, under which the fluctuation of joint output is significantly reduced. Spatially, the mountainous areas of western Hubei and some highland areas in eastern Hubei are more suitable for wind-dominated configurations, whereas the Jianghan Plain and its surrounding areas are more suitable for a relatively balanced wind-solar configuration. Analyses of typical adverse weather scenarios further indicate that a reasonable wind-solar ratio can help reduce output fluctuations under unfavorable conditions such as hot and calm weather, persistent cloudy weather, and cold surges with strong winds. After introducing basic land-use constraints and excluding water bodies and built-up land, the proportion of developable grid cells decreases to 49.15%, while the statistically optimal wind power weight for the whole province changes to 67%, indicating that land-use constraints mainly reduce the developable area but do not substantially alter the province-scale optimal wind-solar ratio. Elevation-stratified analysis further suggests that terrain height is an important factor controlling the spatial differences in wind-solar complementarity and the optimal wind power weight. These results can provide a scientific reference for renewable energy siting and source-side configuration planning in Hubei province.

Key words: Wind-solar complementarity, Diurnal variation, Normalized power output, Comprehensive complementarity index, Wind power weight, Hubei province

王明, 成驰, 王捷儒. 湖北省风光发电日内互补特征及统计最优归一化出力权重配比研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2026, 22(4): 450-464.

WANG Ming, CHENG Chi, WANG Jie-Ru. Intra-day complementary characteristics and statistically optimal capacity configuration of wind and solar power in Hubei province[J]. Climate Change Research, 2026, 22(4): 450-464.

图/表 10

表1 ERA5短波辐射与100 m风速在湖北省典型站点和测风塔上的精度评估结果

Table 1 Accuracy evaluation results of ERA5 shortwave radiation and 100 m wind speed at typical

图1 2.5 MW低风速参考机组功率曲线

Fig. 1 Power curve of the 2.5 MW low-wind-speed reference turbine

图2 湖北省多年平均风光资源背景场 (a) 100 m风速，(b)地表下行短波辐射

Fig. 2 Multi-year climatology of wind and solar resources in Hubei province. (a) 100 m wind speed, (b) surface downward shortwave radiation

图3 湖北省风光资源日内互补特征空间分布 (a)相关系数，(b)综合互补指数

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of intra-day wind-solar complementarity in Hubei province. (a) Correlation coefficient, (b) comprehensive complementarity index

图4 利川、天门和大悟不同季节风速与辐射多年平均日变化

Fig. 4 Multi-year mean diurnal variations of wind speed and solar radiation in different seasons at Lichuan, Tianmen and Dawu

图5 湖北省统计最优风电权重占比及土地利用基础约束下的对比结果

Fig. 5 Comparison of statistically optimal wind power weight in Hubei province with and without basic land-use constraints

图6 湖北省典型资源开发区风光发电系统出力波动性对比

Fig. 6 Comparison of output volatility of wind-solar power systems at typical resource development areas in Hubei province

图7 湖北省风电、光伏及风光互补归一化出力日变化特征

Fig. 7 Diurnal variations of normalized wind, solar and complementary wind-solar output in Hubei province

图8 典型极端天气情景下风光互补出力日变化

Fig. 8 Diurnal variation of complementary wind-solar output under typical extreme weather scenarios

图9 不同高程分层下风光互补性及统计最优风电权重占比差异

Fig. 9 Differences in wind-solar complementarity and statistically optimal wind power share under different elevation classes

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