“沙戈荒”风光互补电站气候-生态效应的多情景比较评估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2026.070

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为评估不同风光互补布设情景对气候-生态的综合影响，基于自主研发的气象-风光耦合数值模型及生态过程机理模型，构建涵盖“布局设计-气候模拟-生态响应”的多情景比较评估方法。以内蒙古阿拉善与新疆哈密两个典型风光互补区为例，在“风光联合发电最稳定”与“风光等面积布设”两类约束条件下，兼顾主导风向的上下游空间关联，设计4种代表性风光互补布设情景，并开展敏感性数值试验。结果表明，风光互补电站的气候-生态效应受布局方案及区域气候背景共同影响，具有明显的情景依赖性和空间异质性。因此，在“沙戈荒”风光互补基地规划阶段，应结合区域气候特征开展多情景比较评估，为可再生能源开发、局地气候稳定与生态保护协同提供科学依据。

关键词: 风光互补, 多情景布设, 气候-生态效应, 比较评估

Abstract:

To objectively assess the comprehensive climate-ecological impacts of different multi-scenario layouts of wind-solar hybrid power stations, this study develops a multi-scenario comparative assessment framework covering layout design, climate simulation, and ecological response, based on a self-developed meteorological-wind-solar coupling model and an ecological process mechanism model. Taking Alxa in Inner Mongolia and Hami in Xinjiang as case studies, four representative scenarios were designed under two constraints: maximizing stability of joint wind-solar generation and equal-area layout, while considering spatial relationships along the prevailing wind direction. Subsequently, a series of controlled numerical experiments were carried out. The results indicate that the climate-ecological effects of wind-solar complementary power stations are jointly influenced by layout plans, regional climatic conditions and climate change characteristics, showing distinct spatial differentiation characteristics. Therefore, during the planning of large-scale wind-solar bases in Sandy Arid Gobi regions, multi-scenario comparison should be carried out considering regional climate characteristics to provide a scientific basis for new energy development, local climate stability and ecological protection.

Key words: Wind-solar hybrid, Multi-scenario layout, Climate-ecological effects, Comparative assessment

常蕊, 於琍, 郑隽卿, 赵悦晨, 王阳, 哈斯. “沙戈荒”风光互补电站气候-生态效应的多情景比较评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2026, 22(4): 425-438.

CHANG Rui, YU Li, ZHENG Jun-Qing, ZHAO Yue-Chen, WANG Yang, HA Si. Multi-scenario comparative assessment of climate-ecological effects of wind-solar hybrid power stations in Sandy Arid Gobi regions[J]. Climate Change Research, 2026, 22(4): 425-438.

图/表 12

图1 代表性风机（GW165-4.0MW）的功率曲线及推力系数曲线

Fig. 1 Power curve and drag coefficient curve of a representative wind turbine (GW165-4.0MW)

图2 2018—2022年CEVSA模拟的总初级生产力GPP与MODIS GPP的比较

Fig. 2 Comparison of CEVSA-modeled and MODIS GPP from 2018 to 2022

图3 气象－能源－生态模式链示意图

Fig. 3 Schematic diagram of the meteorology-energy-ecology model chain

图4 风光互补电站气候－生态效应评估的数值试验设计框架注：图中Cp/Ct曲线代表风机的发电功率/推力系数曲线; H代表风机轮毂高度；D代表风机叶轮直径；LU_INDEX代表模式下垫面的土地利用类型；Fitch修正方案代表文献[19]中所述的风力发电参数化方案；Noah+PV代表文献[20]中所述的光伏发电参数化方案；wrfout代表数值模式输出结果；?代表有、无风光铺设情景之间的差值；T代表温度、Rh代表相对湿度、Rnet代表净辐射、Prain代表降水量；GPP代表总初级生产力。

Fig. 4 Framework of numerical experiment design for climate-ecological effect assessment of wind-solar hybrid power station

表1 集中式光伏电站[21]和风电场[36]开发的GIS层次分析原则

Table 1 GIS-based analytic hierarchy process principles for the development of centralized photovoltaic power stations and wind farms

图5 风光互补电站适宜铺设区域(a)及本研究选定的两个典型区域(b)

Fig. 5 Suitable areas for wind-solar hybrid power plant installation (a) and two typical selected regions (b)

表2 两个典型研究区域基本特征

Table 2 Basic characteristics of the two typical study areas

图6 4种风光互补布局情景(a) S1情景, (b) S2情景, (c) S3情景, (d) S4情景

Fig. 6 Four scenarios for wind-solar hybrid system deployment. (a) Scenario S1, (b) Scenario S2, (c) Scenario S3, (d) Scenario S4

图7 4种风光互补情景下，两个典型电站运行对地表温度影响的空间分布(a)及pdf分布(b)

Fig. 7 Spatial distribution (a) and probability density function (PDF) (b) of surface temperature changes induced by the operation of two typical power stations under four wind-solar hybrid scenarios: with plants or without plants

图8 4种风光互补情景下，两个典型电站运行对2 m相对湿度(a)、10 m风速(b)、湍流动能(c)及潜热通量(d)的影响

Fig. 8 Impacts of two typical power stations on 2 m relative humidity (a), 10 m wind speed (b), turbulent kinetic energy (c), and latent heat flux (d) under four wind-solar hybrid scenarios: with plants or without plants

图9 4种风光互补情景下，两个典型电站运行引起的局地总初级生产力（GPP）相对变化

Fig. 9 Relative changes in local GPP induced by two typical power stations under four wind-solar hybrid scenarios: with plants or without plants

图10 与图7类似，但为潜热通量的变化特征

Fig. 10 Similar to Fig.7 but for latent heat flux

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