基于致灾性与资源性的台风综合影响评估方法研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2026.035

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2026, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (4): 508-520.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2026.035

基于致灾性与资源性的台风综合影响评估方法研究

周星妍¹(), 尹宜舟¹^,²(), 赵久伟³, 陆逸⁴

¹ 中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081
² 中国气象局国家气候中心气候系统预测与变化应对全国重点实验室，北京 100081
³ 气候系统预测与变化应对国家重点实验室/教育部气象灾害重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，南京信息工程大学，南京 210044
⁴ 中国气象局上海台风研究所，上海 200030

收稿日期:2026-02-05 修回日期:2026-03-09 出版日期:2026-07-30 发布日期:2026-06-26
通讯作者: 尹宜舟，男，研究员，yinyizhou@cma.gov.cn
作者简介:周星妍，女，高级工程师，zhouxingyan@cma.gov.cn
基金资助:
气候系统预测与变化应对全国重点实验室建设(CPRM-2025-NCC);上海台风研究基金项目(TFJJ202404);中国气象局青年创新团队“气象灾害风险评估”(CMA2023QN01)

Research on the assessment method of comprehensive typhoon impacts based on destructiveness and resource utility

ZHOU Xing-Yan¹(), YIN Yi-Zhou¹^,²(), ZHAO Jiu-Wei³, LU Yi⁴

¹ National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
² State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
³ State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
⁴ Shanghai Institute of Typhoon, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China

Received:2026-02-05 Revised:2026-03-09 Online:2026-07-30 Published:2026-06-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

台风虽然带来严重的风雨灾害，但它同时也是我国重要的淡水资源补给来源。然而，现有评估多侧重于单一的灾损统计，缺乏对降水资源化效益的量化评价。为此，本研究利用标准化降水指数（SPI）与日极大风速资料，提出并构建了基于致灾性与资源性的台风综合影响评估方法（TC-CIEA)。该方法以前期干湿背景为基础，通过计算台风影响前后的SPI增量来量化降水缓解干旱的程度，并引入17.2 m/s（8级）大风作为致灾熔断阈值，实现对台风致灾风险与补水效益的科学区分；在此基础上，进一步构建台风综合影响指数（TCII）与相对净影响指数ρ，依据资源项与致灾项的物理比例关系将台风综合影响划分为五类客观类别，并基于1981—2023 年共521个台风样本验证了分类标准的稳定性。以典型台风“杜苏芮”及“泰利”为例进行事实验证，结果表明：该方法不仅客观地反映了“杜苏芮”在华东沿海及华北东部致灾、而在华北西部（山西等地）解除干旱的空间差异；也客观量化了“泰利”外围降水在未触发大风致灾阈值下，有效缓解华南等地前期高温干旱的水资源补充效益。相比传统单一视角的灾害评估，本研究有效弥补了“只见灾害、不见资源”的局限，可为台风灾害精细化防御与水资源的科学调度提供更全面的决策依据。

关键词: 台风致灾性与资源性, 效益评估, 标准化降水指数（SPI）, 干旱缓解

Abstract:

Typhoons are a major source of both severe meteorological disasters and crucial freshwater replenishment in China. Current assessments, however, predominantly focus on disaster losses and overlook the resource benefits of precipitation. This study proposes a Tropical Cyclone Comprehensive Impact Evaluation and Assessment (TC-CIEA) to evaluate the dual disaster-resource attributes of typhoons using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and daily maximum wind speed data. By analyzing antecedent moisture conditions and SPI variations, alongside a wind speed disaster-trigger threshold of 17.2 m/s, the model effectively distinguishes between disaster risks and water replenishment benefits. A Typhoon Comprehensive Impact Index (TCII) and a relative net impact index ρ are further constructed, classifying typhoon impacts into five objective categories based on the physical ratio between the resource and disaster terms. The classification stability is validated using 521 typhoon samples from 1981 to 2023. Case studies indicate that the model accurately captures the spatial disparity of Typhoon Doksuri, which caused severe disasters in eastern China but relieved drought in western North China and quantifies the replenishment benefits of Typhoon Talim’s peripheral precipitation in South China without triggering the high-wind disaster threshold. Ultimately, this study transcends traditional hazard-only perspectives, offering a comprehensive framework to support targeted disaster prevention and scientific water resource management.

Key words: Destructiveness and resource utility of typhoons, Benefit assessment, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Drought mitigation

周星妍, 尹宜舟, 赵久伟, 陆逸. 基于致灾性与资源性的台风综合影响评估方法研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2026, 22(4): 508-520.

ZHOU Xing-Yan, YIN Yi-Zhou, ZHAO Jiu-Wei, LU Yi. Research on the assessment method of comprehensive typhoon impacts based on destructiveness and resource utility[J]. Climate Change Research, 2026, 22(4): 508-520.

图/表 9

表1 降水影响评估表

Table 1 Precipitation impact assessment table

图1 风雨综合影响研判矩阵

Fig. 1 Comprehensive wind-rain impact judgment matrix

表2 基于相对净影响指数ρ的台风综合影响五类客观分类标准

Table 2 Five-category objective classification criteria for typhoon comprehensive impacts based on the relative net impact index ρ

表3 客观天气图分析法（OSAT）中台风雨带匹配的动态距离阈值

Table 3 Dynamic distance thresholds for typhoon rainband matching in the OSAT method

图2 2023年影响我国台风的平均ΔSPI变化与过程极大风速(a)及评估方法的资源型与致灾型站点数量对比(b)

Fig. 2 Average ΔSPI change and process maximum extreme wind speed (a), and counts of resource-type versus disaster-type stations (b) for typhoons affecting China in 2023

表4 2023年7个影响台风综合影响评估结果

Table 4 Comprehensive impact assessment results for the seven typhoons affecting China in 2023

图3 台风“杜苏芮”（2305）影响前标准化降水指数（SPIpre）分布(a)、过程SPI增量（ΔSPI）与 8级大风（17.2 m/s）范围(b)及综合利弊评估等级分布(c)

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of pre-typhoon Standardized Precipitation Index (SPIpre) (a), process SPI increment (ΔSPI) with 17.2 m/s wind speed extent (b), and comprehensive pros-cons assessment grades (c) for Typhoon Doksuri (2305)

图4 台风“泰利”（2304）影响前标准化降水指数（SPIpre）分布(a)、过程 SPI 增量（ΔSPI）与 8级大风（17.2 m/s）范围(b)及综合影响评估等级分布(c)

Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of pre-typhoon Standardized Precipitation Index (SPIpre) (a), process SPI increment (ΔSPI) with 17.2 m/s wind speed extent (b), and comprehensive impact assessment grades (c) for Typhoon Talim (2304)

图5 1981—2023年521个台风R?D散点图注：按五分类着色，括号内为各类数量与占比，2023年台风用黑框标注。

Fig. 5 R?D scatter plot of 521 typhoons during 1981-2023

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基于致灾性与资源性的台风综合影响评估方法研究

Research on the assessment method of comprehensive typhoon impacts based on destructiveness and resource utility

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