基于改进损失函数的动态CGE模型预估中国极端事件的经济损失

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2026.030

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全球变暖引发的极端事件对自然生态系统和社会经济结构均产生了较为深远的影响，可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型被广泛应用于灾害的间接经济损失评估。文中基于改进的损失函数预估中国未来不同气候情景下极端事件造成的直接经济损失，并将其嵌入动态CGE模型中劳动与资本的复合函数，实现长时间尺度累积效应下间接经济损失的系统性预估。结果表明，SSP245情景下造成的直接经济损失最少，3种情景（SSP126、SSP245和SSP585）下直接经济损失占GDP的比例均呈先增后减趋势。间接经济损失占GDP的比例呈现明显的“乘数效应”，损失速率逐渐攀升，SSP585情景造成的间接经济损失明显高于其他情景，到2060年，这一间接经济损失数值高达直接经济损失的10倍。间接经济损失变化在生产、贸易和收支3个模块中存在明显差异：生产模块中，总产出呈先增后减趋势，除采掘业外，其他6个部门产出均有不同程度的下降；贸易模块中，总消费和进口的变化趋势较为一致，出口持续下降趋势明显；收支模块中，政府收入、居民收入和居民消费均呈逐年下降趋势。

关键词: 气候变化, 可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型, 经济损失, 极端事件

Abstract:

Extreme events triggered by global warming have had profound impacts on both natural ecosystems and socio-economic structures. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are widely used for assessing the indirect economic losses caused by disasters. Based on an improved loss function, the direct economic losses caused by extreme events under different climate scenarios in China in the future are estimated in this paper, and these losses are embedded into a composite function of labor and capital in a dynamic CGE model to systematically estimate the indirect economic losses under long-term cumulative effects. The results show that the direct economic losses are the lowest under the SSP245 scenario. The ratios of direct economic losses to GDP under three scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585) all present a trend of rising first and then falling, exhibiting a significant “multiplier effect” with a gradually increasing loss rate. The indirect economic losses under the SSP585 scenario are significantly higher than those under the other two scenarios. By 2060, the indirect economic losses will reach as much as ten times the direct economic losses. There are significant differences in the changes of indirect economic losses across three modules: production, trade, and balance of payments. In the production module, total output initially increases and then decreases, and except for the extractive industry, the output of the other six sectors decreases to varying degrees. In the trade module, the trends of total consumption and imports are relatively consistent, with exports showing a clear downward trend. In the balance of payments module, government revenue, household income, and household consumption all show a downward trend year by year.

Key words: Climate change, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, Economic loss, Extreme event

王雅祺, 丑洁明, 赵卫星. 基于改进损失函数的动态CGE模型预估中国极端事件的经济损失[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2026, 22(4): 521-535.

WANG Ya-Qi, CHOU Jie-Ming, ZHAO Wei-Xing. Estimating the economic losses of extreme events in China based on a dynamic CGE model with an improved loss function[J]. Climate Change Research, 2026, 22(4): 521-535.

图/表 12

表1 8种气候模式的基本信息

Table 1 Basic information of 8 climate models

图1 改进的CGE模型结构

Fig. 1 Improved CGE model structure

表2 中国2020年SAM表数据

Table 2 China’s 2020 SAM table data

表3 模型主要参数设置

Table 3 Main parameter settings of the model

表4 2020—2025年模拟GDP与实际GDP比较

Table 4 Comparison between simulated GDP and actual GDP during 2020-2025

图2 不同气候情景下中国2021—2060年3种灾害造成的直接经济损失及其占GDP比例的变化趋势

Fig. 2 The changing trends of direct economic losses and their proportions to GDP caused by three types of disasters in China from 2021 to 2060 under different climate scenarios

图3 不同气候情景下2021—2060年暴雨洪涝(a)、低温冷冻(b)和干旱(c)灾害对中国各地区造成的直接经济损失占GDP的平均比例

Fig. 3 The average proportion of direct economic loss to GDP caused by heavy rainfall and flood (a), low-temperature freezing (b), and drought (c) in various regions of China from 2021 to 2060 under different climate scenarios

图4 不同气候情景下中国2021—2060年间接经济损失占GDP的比例的变化趋势

Fig. 4 The changing trends in the proportion of indirect economic losses to GDP in China from 2021 to 2060 under different climate scenarios

图5 不同气候情景下中国2021—2060年总产出(a)和7个部门(b~h)间接经济损失比例的变化趋势注：本图的占比指不同产品部门产值前后的差值，再除以该部门原产值，下图同。

Fig. 5 The changing trends in the proportion of indirect economic losses for total output (a) and seven sectors (b-h) in China from 2021 to 2060 under different climate scenarios

图6 不同气候情景下中国2021—2060年中间合成品(a)、劳动?资本合成品(b)、劳动投入(c)和资本投入(d)的间接经济损失比例的变化趋势

Fig. 6 The changing trends in the proportion of indirect economic losses for intermediate composite goods (a) and labor-capital inputs (b-d) in China from 2021 to 2060 under different climate scenarios

图7 不同气候情景下中国2021—2060年总消费(a)和进出口(b~c)间接经济损失比例的变化趋势

Fig. 7 The changing trends in the proportion of indirect economic losses for total consumption (a) and import-export (b-c) activities in China from 2021 to 2060 under different climate scenarios

图8 不同气候情景下中国2021—2060年政府(a)和居民(b)收支间接经济损失比例的变化趋势

Fig. 8 The changing trends in the proportion of indirect economic losses for government (a) and household (b) income and expenditure in China from 2021 to 2060 under different climate scenarios

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