从IPCC WGI前六次科学评估报告看第七次评估报告的进展

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.257

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2026, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (1): 133-136.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.257

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从IPCC WGI前六次科学评估报告看第七次评估报告的进展

赵宗慈¹^,²(), 罗勇¹, 黄建斌³

¹ 清华大学地球系统科学系，北京 100084
² 中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081
³ 中国科学院大学资源环境学院，北京 100049

出版日期:2026-01-30 发布日期:2026-01-27
作者简介:赵宗慈，女，研究员，zhaozongci@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn
基金资助:
科技部重点专项(2017YFA0603700);国家重点科研计划项目(2022YFE0106700)

Progress of the seventh report from the first six scientific reports of IPCC WGI

ZHAO Zong-Ci¹^,²(), LUO Yong¹, HUANG Jian-Bin³

¹ Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
² National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100084, China
³ College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Online:2026-01-30 Published:2026-01-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文回顾了IPCC第一工作组（WGI）前6次科学评估报告的发展历程，总结了其在作者代表性、观测资料、气候模型、人类活动归因及未来预估等方面的显著进展，并在此基础上展望了第七次评估报告（AR7）的可能创新。文章指出，从FAR（1990年）到AR6（2021年)，报告内容不断深化，模型分辨率提高、作者代表性增强、人类活动对气候变化影响的科学确定性显著提升。预计AR7将在科学框架优化、方法创新、关键议题拓展以及跨工作组协同等方面取得进一步突破，提出更可靠的创新进展。

关键词: IPCC AR7, 科学框架, 关键议题

Abstract:

This paper reviews the development of the first six scientific assessment reports of the IPCC Working Group I (WGI), summarizing significant progress in areas such as author representation, observational data, climate models, attribution of human activities, and future projections. Building on this foundation, it looks ahead to potential innovations in the Seventh Assessment Report (AR7). The article notes that from the FAR (1990) to AR6 (2021), the reports have continuously deepened in content, with improved model resolution, broader author representation, and substantially increased scientific certainty regarding the impact of human activities on climate change. It is anticipated that AR7 will achieve further breakthroughs in areas such as optimized scientific framework, methodological innovations, expansion of key topics, and enhanced collaboration across working groups, thereby providing more precise and systematic scientific support for global climate governance.

Key words: IPCC AR7, Scientific framework, Key topics

赵宗慈, 罗勇, 黄建斌. 从IPCC WGI前六次科学评估报告看第七次评估报告的进展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2026, 22(1): 133-136.

ZHAO Zong-Ci, LUO Yong, HUANG Jian-Bin. Progress of the seventh report from the first six scientific reports of IPCC WGI[J]. Climate Change Research, 2026, 22(1): 133-136.

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从IPCC WGI前六次科学评估报告看第七次评估报告的进展

Progress of the seventh report from the first six scientific reports of IPCC WGI

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