《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》的再续补（2001—2024年)与特殊区域旱涝趋势

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.178

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

21世纪以来，全球升温速度显著加快，中国受气候变暖的影响显著且复杂。本文基于前人研究成果，对《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》进行再续补，完成了2001—2024年的全国各站旱涝等级序列和全国旱涝等级空间分布特点分析。在过去的历史序列中，我国西部地区站点分布稀疏，致使东西两区域的站点密度极不均衡，鉴于此本研究增补了西部地区各地级市1961—2024年的旱涝等级序列。对续补序列的应用分析表明，它能准确地反映21世纪以来我国发生的重大旱涝事件，为研究气候变化背景下中国旱涝事件的长期演变规律和周期性特征提供更完整的数据支撑。通过分析研究我国西部地区旱涝等级变化，可明确“西北暖湿化”现象主要发生在以青海和新疆为主的西北地区西部，其结论与当前学界的主流意见一致。通过对比分析南水北调中线工程水网所在区域古今干旱强度的变化，确定了过去555年间（1470—2024年）中线水网区共有27年达到极端干旱的标准，明末崇祯大旱、清末丁戊奇荒、1941—1942年河南大旱均在其列；同时，1961年以来有3年入选极端干旱年，其强度超过1941—1942年河南大旱的平均强度，但不及崇祯大旱和丁戊奇荒发生期间最旱年的等级指数。由此，通过旱涝等级差异对比，实现了跨越时空的对话，从历史的视角去审视现代重大干旱事件的强度。

关键词: 中国, 旱涝等级, 气候变暖, 特殊区域, 重大旱涝事件, 历史灾害资料

Abstract:

Since the 21st century, the speed of global warming has been significantly accelerated, and the impact of climate warming on China is significant and complicated. Based on the previous research results, this paper supplements the atlas of drought and flood distribution in China over the past 500 years, and completes the national drought and flood grade series from 2001 to 2024 and the spatial distribution characteristics of the national drought and flood grades. In view of the fact that in the past historical series, the distribution of stations in the western region of China was sparse, resulting in the extremely uneven density of stations in the eastern and western regions, this study also supplements the drought and flood grade series of cities in the western region from 1961 to 2024. The application analysis of the supplementary sequence shows that it can accurately reflect the major drought and flood events in China since the 21st century, and provide more complete data support for studying the long-term evolution and periodic characteristics of drought and flood events in China under the background of climate change. By analyzing the changes of drought and flood grades in western China, it is clear that the phenomenon of “warm-wet transition in Northwest China” mainly occurs in the western part of Northwest China, which is dominated by Qinghai and Xinjiang and its conclusion is consistent with the mainstream opinion of current academic circles. By comparing and analyzing the changes of ancient and modern drought intensity in the water network area of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer project, it is determined that this area has reached the standard of extreme drought for 27 years in the past 555 years, including the Chongzhen Great Drought in the late Ming Dynasty, the Incredible Famine of Ding-Wu in the late Qing Dynasty, and the 1941-1942 Henan Drought. At the same time, since 1961, three years have been selected as extreme drought years, the intensity of which have surpassed the 1941-1942 Henan Drought, but they are not as high as the grade indices of the driest years during the Chongzhen Great Drought and the Incredible Famine of Ding-Wu. Therefore, through the comparison of drought and flood grades, the dialogue across time and space is realized, and the intensity of modern major drought events is examined from a historical perspective.

Key words: China, Drought and flood grade, Climate warming, Special area, Major drought and flood events, Historical disaster data

李威, 李潇潇, 姚世博, 张强, 梁有叶, 孔莉莎, 赵琳, 谢五三, 张永宁. 《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》的再续补（2001—2024年)与特殊区域旱涝趋势[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2026, 22(1): 14-27.

LI Wei, LI Xiao-Xiao, YAO Shi-Bo, ZHANG Qiang, LIANG You-Ye, KONG Li-Sha, ZHAO Lin, XIE Wu-San, ZHANG Yong-Ning. The supplement (2001—2024) to the atlas of drought and flood distribution in China over the past 500 years and the trend of drought and flood in special areas[J]. Climate Change Research, 2026, 22(1): 14-27.

图/表 12

表1 《图集》中关于旱涝五等级的划分

Table 1 Classification of 5 grades of drought and flood in Atlas of drought and flood distribution in China over the past 500 Years

图1 站点序号图注：原120站点用实心表示，新增的西部地区40个站点用空心表示。

Fig. 1 Site serial number map. (The original 120 sites are represented by solid, and the newly added 40 sites in the western region are represented by hollow)

表2 北京等10站点序列的旱涝等级比例统计

Table 2 Statistics of grade proportion of 10 station sequences

附图1 中国2001—2024年历年旱涝等级空间分布

Attached Fig. 1 Spatial distribution map of drought and flood grades in China from 2001 to 2024

附表1 120站历年旱涝等级资料表续补（2001—2024年）

Attached table 1 Supplement to the data table of drought and flood grades of 120 stations over the years (2001-2024)

附表2 我国西部新增40站历年旱涝等级资料表续补（1961—2024年）

Attached table 2 Supplement to the data table of drought and flood grades of 40 new stations in western China over the years (1961-2024)

图2 1961—2024年中国平均旱涝等级序列

Fig. 2 Average grade series of drought and flood in China during 1961-2024

图3 2001—2024年中国旱涝等级变化趋势空间分布

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of trend in drought and flood grade in China during 2001-2024

图4 2001—2024年(a)与1470—2000年(b)中国平均旱涝等级空间分布

Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of average drought and flood grades in China for the periods 2001-2024 (a) and 1470-2000 (b)

图5 2001—2024年(a)与1470—2000年(b)中国旱涝等级标准差空间分布

Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of standard deviation of drought and flood grades in China for the periods 2001-2024 (a) and 1470-2000 (b)

图6 1961—2024年中国西北地区、西北地区西部、西北地区东部的平均旱涝等级序列

Fig. 6 Average drought and flood grade series in Northwest China, West China and East China in 1961-2024

图7 1470—2024年中线工程受水区历年平均旱涝等级变化

Fig. 7 Variation of average drought and flood grades over the period of 1470-2024 in the water receiving area of the middle route project

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