我国海上风电发展情景及其对产业发展、区域电价影响分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.046

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2026, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (1): 101-109.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.046

我国海上风电发展情景及其对产业发展、区域电价影响分析

邓步青¹, 姜克隽²^,³(), 贺晨旻²^,⁴, 向翩翩²^,⁵, 叶荣¹, 朱纹纹¹, 邹艺超¹, 焦钰捷²^,⁶

¹ 国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院，福州 350012
² 中国宏观经济研究院能源研究所，北京 100038
³ 香港科技大学（广州）社会枢纽碳中和和气候变化学域，广州 551453
⁴ 浙江工业大学浙江碳中和创新研究院，杭州 310014
⁵ 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院，北京 100190
⁶ 北京工业大学环境科学与工程学院，北京 100124

收稿日期:2025-03-06 修回日期:2025-05-13 出版日期:2026-01-30 发布日期:2026-01-27
通讯作者: 姜克隽，男，研究员，kjiang2015@163.com
作者简介:邓步青，男，工程师
基金资助:
国网福建省电力有限公司科技项目“能源-经济-环境”多系统联动仿真决策技术研究(B3130N24000H)

Analysis of the offshore wind power development in China and its impacts on industrial development and regional electricity prices

DENG Bu-Qing¹, JIANG Ke-Jun²^,³(), HE Chen-Min²^,⁴, XIANG Pian-Pian²^,⁵, YE Rong¹, ZHU Wen-Wen¹, ZOU Yi-Chao¹, JIAO Yu-Jie²^,⁶

¹ State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co., Ltd. Economic and Technical Research Institute, Fuzhou 350012, China
² Energy Research Institute, China Academy of Macro-Economics Research, Beijing 100038, China
³ Carbon Neutrality and Climate Change Thrust, Social Hub, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 551453, China
⁴ Zhejiang Carbon Neutral Innovation Institute, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310014, China
⁵ Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
⁶ College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China

Received:2025-03-06 Revised:2025-05-13 Online:2026-01-30 Published:2026-01-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

我国的海上风电发展迅速，到2024年底，在全球占据了当年新增装机容量的一半以上。技术快速进步导致其发电成本快速下降，在我国碳中和的能源转型中发挥了重要作用。文中结合海上风电最新技术进展，对中国能源与环境政策综合评估（IPAC）模型组的碳中和能源转型路径下海上风电的发展情景进行了扩展性分析，进一步评估了快速技术进步下的资源潜力，给出了未来不同类型海上风电的装机规模和发电量，并对其发电成本趋势进行了分析。在此基础上，分析了低成本的海上风电对绿氢为基础的产业发展的成本影响，显示低成本的海上风电可以提升沿海省市在全国产业格局中的产品竞争力。同时，进一步给出了海上风电发展对区域电网电价的影响，例如福建省，2040年和2050年海上风电可以使本地电价分别下降0.02元/(kW·h)和0.05元/(kW·h)，将助力当地社会经济发展。

关键词: 碳中和, 能源转型, 海上风电, 产业布局, 电价

Abstract:

By the end of 2024, China’s offshore wind power has developed rapidly, accounting for more than half of the global new installed capacity. The rapid technological progress has led to a significant reduction in its power generation costs, playing a crucial role in China’s energy transition towards carbon neutrality. Based on the latest technological advancements in offshore wind power, this paper analyzes the development scenarios of offshore wind power under the carbon neutrality energy transition path of the IPAC model group, further assesses its technological progress and resource potential, provides the future installed capacity and power generation of different types of offshore wind power, and analyzes its power generation cost trends. On this basis, it analyzes the impact of low-cost offshore wind power development on the cost of green hydrogen-based industries, demonstrating the possible product competitiveness for coastal regions in the national industrial layout pattern. At the same time, it also presents the impact of offshore wind power development on regional grid electricity prices. For example, in Fujian province, offshore wind power can reduce local electricity prices by 0.02 yuan/(kW·h) and 0.05 yuan/(kW·h) in 2040 and 2050, respectively, which will contribute to the local social and economic development.

Key words: Carbon Neutrality, Energy transition, Off-shore wind power, Industry layout, Electricity price

邓步青, 姜克隽, 贺晨旻, 向翩翩, 叶荣, 朱纹纹, 邹艺超, 焦钰捷. 我国海上风电发展情景及其对产业发展、区域电价影响分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2026, 22(1): 101-109.

DENG Bu-Qing, JIANG Ke-Jun, HE Chen-Min, XIANG Pian-Pian, YE Rong, ZHU Wen-Wen, ZOU Yi-Chao, JIAO Yu-Jie. Analysis of the offshore wind power development in China and its impacts on industrial development and regional electricity prices[J]. Climate Change Research, 2026, 22(1): 101-109.

图/表 9

表1 海上风电碳中和情景描述

Table 1 Description of offshore wind power carbon neutrality scenario

图1 海上风电碳中和情景下能源转型结果(a) 一次能源需求量（可再生能源按照电当量计算)，(b)终端能源需求量，(c)发电量，(d)发电装机容量

Fig. 1 Energy transition pathway, offshore wind power carbon neutrality scenario. (a) Primary energy demand (renewable energy is calculated in terms of electricity equivalent), (b) final energy demand, (c) electricity generation, and (d) installed electricity generation capacity

表2 IPAC模型设定的海上风电资源

Table 2 Offshore wind energy resources, IPAC model

表3 IPAC模型中的海上风电技术投资

Table 3 Investment in offshore wind power technologies, IPAC model

图2 IPAC模型风电装机情景

Fig. 2 Wind power installation scenario, IPAC model

表4 海上风电到岸成本

Table 4 Cost of offshore wind power transmission to land, IPAC model

表5 绿氢与氢基合成氨的均化成本和收益价格

Table 5 Levelized costs and profit prices of green hydrogen and hydrogen-based ammonia

表6 IPAC模型海上风电碳中和情景中福建省各类电力价格

Table 6 Electricity prices in Fujian province, offshore wind power carbon neutrality scenario in IPAC model

图3 福建省电力情景

Fig. 3 Electricity generation in Fujian province

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我国海上风电发展情景及其对产业发展、区域电价影响分析

Analysis of the offshore wind power development in China and its impacts on industrial development and regional electricity prices

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