中国冻雨变化特征及过程致灾机理分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.257

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (3): 305-316.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.257

中国冻雨变化特征及过程致灾机理分析

王韵颖¹^,²(), 王国复³(), 张颖娴³, 郑春怡⁴, 黄菲¹^,²

1.中国海洋大学深海多圈层与地球系统前沿科学中心和物理海洋教育部重点实验室，青岛 266100
2.中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院，青岛 266100
3.中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081
4.云南省气象局，昆明 650034

收稿日期:2024-09-29 修回日期:2024-11-26 出版日期:2025-05-30 发布日期:2025-03-14
通讯作者: 王国复，男，研究员，wanggf@cma.gov.cn
作者简介:王韵颖，女，硕士研究生，wangyunying2022@163.com
基金资助:
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J071);国家自然科学基金(42075024);国家重点研发计划(2019YFA0607004);山东省自然科学基金重大基础研究项目(ZR2019ZD12)

New characteristics and mechanism analysis of freezing rain in China

WANG Yun-Ying¹^,²(), WANG Guo-Fu³(), ZHANG Ying-Xian³, ZHENG Chun-Yi⁴, HUANG Fei¹^,²

1. Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
2. College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
3. National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
4. Yunnan Meteorological Bureau, Kunming 650034, China

Received:2024-09-29 Revised:2024-11-26 Online:2025-05-30 Published:2025-03-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1961—2022年历史观测数据，系统研究了全球变化背景下中国冻雨时空变化规律，并对典型冻雨过程致灾机理进行分析。研究结果表明，全国平均冻雨发生频次在1961—1975年间呈上升趋势，1980—1990年迅速减少后保持稳定，近年呈缓慢上升趋势，从2000年以来急剧增加且年际振荡加大。中国冻雨主要发生在湘贵、冀鲁豫鄂、陕甘宁、黑吉辽和新疆5个区域，随着全球变化加剧，不同地区冻雨频次有新的变化，其中湘贵和黑吉辽区域的变化最为显著。大范围冻雨过程研究分析显示，北极增暖背景下，冷空气侵入我国的路径、强度和影响范围发生变化，伴以逆温层显著且水汽充足，易导致大范围冻雨事件的发生。

关键词: 冻雨发生频次, 中国, 季节变化, 年际变化

Abstract:

At present, the trend of global warming is still continuing, and the extreme low temperature events in China have decreased significantly in recent decades. However, since the 1990s, the occurrence of extreme low temperature in China has increased, the number of strong low temperature events and the total amount of snowfall have both increased. This trend is expected to continue in the future. In 2024, the most extreme ice and snow event occurred since 2009 occurred, and freezing rain as a kind of low temperature disaster, in this context, it is necessary to conduct research. Based on daily freezing rain (rime) data from January 1961 to December 2022, the spatio-temporal characteristics of freezing rain frequency were systematically investigated across China. The distribution and variation patterns of freezing rain in the whole country were analyzed and a significant large-scale freezing rain event anticipated in February 2024 was examined. The findings indicate that with exceptions for certain high-altitude regions, freezing rain predominantly occurs between September and following May, peaking during winter (December to following February). The average frequency of freezing rain exhibited an initial rise from 1961 to 1975, followed by a rapid decline between 1980 and 1990. Since 2000, the frequency of freezing rain in China has transitioned from a gradual decline to a sharp increase, accompanied by heightened interannual oscillations. Five primary regions were identified as experiencing significant occurrences of freezing rain: Xiang-Gui (Hunan-Guizhou), Ji-Lu-Yu-E (Hebei-Shandong-Henan-Hubei), Shan-Gan-Ning (Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia), Hei-Ji-Liao (Heilongjiang-Jilin-Liaoning). As global changes intensify, the frequency of freezing rain in various regions has experienced new variations, with notable variations observed particularly within the Xiang-Gui and Hei-Ji-Liao regions. The analysis of the large-scale freezing rain process projected for February 2024 reveals that under the background of Arctic warming, the path, intensity and influence range of cold air entering China have changed, accompanied by a significant inversion layer and abundant water vapor, which is prone to cause large-scale freezing rain events.

Key words: Frequency of freezing rain, China, Seasonal variation, Interannual variation

王韵颖, 王国复, 张颖娴, 郑春怡, 黄菲. 中国冻雨变化特征及过程致灾机理分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(3): 305-316.

WANG Yun-Ying, WANG Guo-Fu, ZHANG Ying-Xian, ZHENG Chun-Yi, HUANG Fei. New characteristics and mechanism analysis of freezing rain in China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(3): 305-316.

图/表 14

图1 1961—2022年冻雨发生总次数的季节变化(a)、单站平均冻雨发生频次的年际变化(b) 注：(b)图中黑横线为每10年平均的冻雨发生频次。

Fig. 1 Monthly distribution of freezing rain frequency from 1961 to 2022 (a), annual change of average freezing rain frequency in a single site (b)

表1 全国单站年平均各季节冻雨日数

Table 1 Annual average number of freezing rain in each season

图2 平均冻雨发生频次年际变化的Mann-Kendall检验

Fig. 2 Mann-Kendall test of annual variation of average freezing rain frequency

图3 1961—2022年春季(a)、夏季(b)、秋季(c)、冬季(d)中国冻雨季节平均发生日数的空间分布

Fig. 3 The distribution of the seasonal average number of freezing rain days in spring (a), summer (b), autumn (c) and winter (d) in China during 1961-2022

图4 1961—2022年中国冻雨年平均发生日数(a)、冻雨过程次数(b)、冻雨发生过程最长持续时间(c)的空间分布注：去除2500 m以上站点。

Fig. 4 The distribution of the annual average number of freezing rain days (a), the number of freezing rain processes (b), and longest duration of freezing rain processes (c) in China during 1961-2022

图5 湘贵(a)、冀鲁豫鄂(b)、陕甘宁(c)、黑吉辽(d)单站平均冻雨发生频次月分布

Fig. 5 Monthly distribution of freezing rain occurrence in Xiang-Gui (a), Ji-Lu-Yu-E (b), Shan-Gan-Ning (c) and Hei-Ji-Liao (d)

表2 各区域平均冻雨发生频次与全国平均冻雨发生频次相关系数

Table 2 Correlation coefficient between the average frequency of freezing rain in each region and that in China 注：均通过0.05的显著性检验。

图6 1961—2022年湘贵(a)、冀鲁豫鄂(b)、陕甘宁(c)、黑吉辽(d)区域平均冻雨发生频次注：虚线表示10年平均冻雨发生次数；实线表示62年平均的冻雨发生次数。

Fig. 6 Average frequency of freezing rain in Xiang-Gui (a), Ji-Lu-Yu-E (b), Shan-Gan-Ning (c) and Hei-Ji-Liao (d) regions. (The dotted line: 10-year average number of frequency change of freezing rain; the solid line: 62-year average number of frequency change of freezing rain)

表3 各区域及全国平均冻雨发生频次标准差

Table 3 Standard deviation of the average frequency of freezing rain in each region and China

图7 2月19—21日(a)、2月22—24日(b)、2月25—27日(c) 200 hPa位势高度分布注：等值线为平均位势高度，gpm；填色为位势高度距平，gpm。

Fig. 7 Geopotential height of 200 hPa from February 19 to February 21 (a), from February 22 to February 24 (b), from February 25 to February 27 (c)

图8 2月14—25日500 hPa位势高度分布

Fig. 8 Geopotential height at 500 hPa from February 14 to February 25

图9 2月18—26日整层水汽通量（矢量）和比湿（填色）

Fig. 9 Water vapor transport throughout the layer (the vector) and specific humidity (the shaded) from February 18 to February 26

图10 2月19—27日0 ℃等温线分布

Fig. 10 Distribution of the 0℃ isotherm from February 19 to 27

图11 2月22—26日冻雨严重区域 (25°~35°N, 110°~120°E)上空的暖层(实线)、冷层(虚线)的平均温度以及二者温差(直方图)的时间序列

Fig. 11 The time series of the average temperature of the warm layer (the solid line) and the cold layer (dashed line), as well as the temperature difference between them (histogram), in the severe freezing rain area (25°-35°N, 110°-120°E) from February 22 to 26

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中国冻雨变化特征及过程致灾机理分析

New characteristics and mechanism analysis of freezing rain in China

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