南水北调西线工程水源区和受水区降水变化及丰枯遭遇特征分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.131

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2024, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (5): 571-580.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.131

南水北调西线工程水源区和受水区降水变化及丰枯遭遇特征分析

王荣¹(), 杜孝忠², 巢清尘¹, 赵珊珊¹^,³(), 叶殿秀¹, 李修仓¹, 李莹¹^,³, 张梦然²

1 中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081
2 中国南水北调集团有限公司，北京 100036
3 中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室，北京 100081

收稿日期:2024-06-11 修回日期:2024-07-18 出版日期:2024-09-30 发布日期:2024-08-28
通讯作者: 赵珊珊，女，正研级高工，zhaoss@cma.gov.cn
作者简介:王荣，男，高级工程师，wangrong@cma.gov.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202400);中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室开放研究课题(23SWQXM027);国家自然科学基金项目(41875120)

Trends of precipitation and characteristics of wetness-dryness encountering in the water source and receiving areas of the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project

WANG Rong¹(), DU Xiao-Zhong², CHAO Qing-Chen¹, ZHAO Shan-Shan¹^,³(), YE Dian-Xiu¹, LI Xiu-Cang¹, LI Ying¹^,³, ZHANG Meng-Ran²

1 National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2 China South-to-North Water Transfer Group Co., LTD, Beijing 100036, China
3 China Meteorological Administration Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2024-06-11 Revised:2024-07-18 Online:2024-09-30 Published:2024-08-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于规划中的南水北调西线工程区域内274个国家气象站1961—2022年逐日降水资料，分析了西线工程水源区和受水区年和四季降水量的时空分布特征，以及两区降水的丰枯遭遇特征。结果表明：近62年来，南水北调西线工程水源区年降水量总体呈增多趋势，而受水区年降水量没有明显变化趋势；夏、冬季水源区和受水区降水量均增多，春、秋季水源区降水量增多而受水区降水量减少；年和春、夏、秋季水源区枯水频率均低于受水区枯水频率，并且水源区枯水频率呈减少趋势，而丰水频率呈增加趋势；水源区和受水区年和四季降水丰枯异步频率普遍在60%以上，远大于丰枯同步频率，有利调水的5种丰枯遭遇在年和春、夏、秋季发生频率均超过50%。总体而言，南水北调西线工程水源区和受水区的降水具有较强的丰枯补偿性，且1971年以来有利调水发生频次呈增加趋势，理论上存在保证供水的可能性。但水源区出现连续枯水年的频次较多。因此，在南水北调西线工程规划设计和运行调度时需充分考虑水源区和受水区降水的变化。

关键词: 降水, 丰枯遭遇, 南水北调西线, 水源区, 受水区

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation data from 274 national meteorological stations in the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project area from 1961 to 2022, the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of annual and seasonal precipitation in the water source and receiving areas were analyzed, as well as the characteristics of the encounter between dryness and wetness in the two areas. The results show that in the past 62 years, the precipitation in the water source area of the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project showed an increasing trend, while the trend of precipitation in the water receiving area was not significant. The seasonal precipitation of summer and winter in both water source area and receiving area increased. The precipitation of spring and autumn in water source area increased while that in water receiving area decreased. The frequency of dryness in water source area was lower than that in water receiving area in spring, summer, and autumn. The frequency of dryness in water source area showed a decreasing trend, while the frequency of wetness showed an increasing trend. The asynchronous frequency of annual and seasonal precipitation in the water source area and receiving area was above 60%, which was much higher than the synchronous frequency. The five types of dryness-wetness encountering favorable for water transfer occurred at a frequency of over 50% in spring, summer, and autumn. In general, the precipitation in water source and receiving areas of the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project had a strong compensatory effect, and the frequency of dryness-wetness encountering favorable for water transfer increased after 1971, ensuring the possibility of water supply. However, the frequency of continuous dryness years in water source area was high. Therefore, it is necessary to consider climate changes of precipitation in water source and receiving areas in the planning, design, and operation scheduling of the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project.

Key words: Precipitation, Wetness-dryness encountering, The west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, Water source area, Water receiving area

王荣, 杜孝忠, 巢清尘, 赵珊珊, 叶殿秀, 李修仓, 李莹, 张梦然. 南水北调西线工程水源区和受水区降水变化及丰枯遭遇特征分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(5): 571-580.

WANG Rong, DU Xiao-Zhong, CHAO Qing-Chen, ZHAO Shan-Shan, YE Dian-Xiu, LI Xiu-Cang, LI Ying, ZHANG Meng-Ran. Trends of precipitation and characteristics of wetness-dryness encountering in the water source and receiving areas of the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(5): 571-580.

图/表 12

图1 南水北调西线工程水源区、受水区及区内国家气象观测站分布

Fig. 1 Distribution of water source area, water receiving area, and national meteorological observation stations in the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project

表1 降水丰平枯水划分标准

Table 1 Standards of wetness, normal, and dryness

图2 1961—2022年南水北调西线工程多年平均年降水量(a)及其变化趋势(b)空间分布

Fig. 2 Spatial distributions of long-term mean precipitation (a) and trend of precipitation (b) of the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project during 1961-2022

图3 1961—2022年南水北调西线工程区年降水量历年变化

Fig. 3 Annual variations of precipitation in the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project during 1961-2022

图4 1961—2022年南水北调西线工程区四季降水量分布

Fig. 4 Seasonal precipitation of the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project during 1961-2022

图5 1961—2022年南水北调西线工程区四季降水量历年变化

Fig. 5 Annual variation of seasonal precipitation in the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in the four seasons during 1961-2022

图6 1961—2022年南水北调西线工程区四季降水量变化趋势空间分布

Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of trends of seasonal precipitation in the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in the four seasons during 1961-2022

表2 1961—2022年南水北调西线工程水源区和受水区四季和全年降水量丰枯频率

Table 2 Seasonal and annual wetness and dryness frequency of the water source area and water receiving area of the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project during 1961-2022 %

图7 南水北调西线工程水源区(a)和受水区(b)逐年代年降水量丰枯频次变化

Fig. 7 Decadal frequency of dryness and wetness of the water source area (a) and water receiving area (b) in the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project

表3 1961—2022年南水北调西线工程水源区连续枯水年及对应的受水区状况

Table 3 Continuous dry years in the water source area and the corresponding conditions in the water receiving area of the west route of the South-North Water Transfer Project during 1961-2022

表4 1961—2022年南水北调西线工程四季和全年水源区和受水区降水丰枯遭遇频率

Table 4 Seasonal and annual synchrony and asynchrony frequency of precipitation in the water source and receiving areas of the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project during 1961-2022 %

图8 南水北调西线工程水源区和受水区年降水丰枯异步和有利调水情形频次逐年代分布

Fig. 8 Decadal frequency of asynchronous precipitation and favorable water transfer conditions in the west route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

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南水北调西线工程水源区和受水区降水变化及丰枯遭遇特征分析

Trends of precipitation and characteristics of wetness-dryness encountering in the water source and receiving areas of the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project

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