气候政策不确定性对企业绿色创新的影响

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.107

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为应对日益严重的气候变化，各国都在积极制定各种气候政策以推动绿色转型和可持续发展。气候政策的频繁变动给企业经营带来了新的风险。绿色创新作为企业的战略资源，是助推经济绿色转型的重要方式，不可避免地受到气候政策不确定性的影响。文中以2010—2022年中国上市企业数据为研究样本，检验气候政策不确定性对企业绿色创新的影响。研究发现，气候政策不确定性对企业绿色创新存在显著抑制作用，且在非国有企业、非能源企业及高分析师关注度企业中，抑制作用更明显。气候政策不确定性的持续攀升通过增加融资约束、降低风险承担水平削弱了企业绿色创新意愿，其中风险承担水平的间接效应表现为“遮掩效应”。数字化转型能够显著抵御气候政策不确定性对绿色创新的负向冲击，尤其有助于提高企业实质性绿色创新应对气候政策变动的能力。

关键词: 气候政策不确定性, 融资约束, 风险承担水平, 数字化转型, 绿色创新

Abstract:

In order to cope with increasingly serious climate change, various countries are actively formulating climate policies to promote green transformation and sustainable development. Frequent changes in climate policies bring new risks to business operations. As a strategic resource for enterprises, green innovation is an important way to boost the green transformation of the economy, which is inevitably affected by climate policy uncertainty (CPU). Based on the data of Chinese listed enterprises from 2010 to 2022, this paper investigates the impact of climate policy uncertainty on corporate green innovation and its mechanism through Tobit modeling. The results show that CPU has a significant inhibitory effect on enterprises’ green innovation, which is more pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises, non-energy enterprises and enterprises with high analyst attention. Rising CPU weakens enterprises’ willingness to innovate by increasing financing constraints and lowering risk-taking levels, with the indirect effect of risk-taking levels manifesting itself as a “masking effect”. The moderating mechanism test finds that enterprises’ digital transformation can significantly counteract the negative impacts of CPU on green innovation, and in particular helps to improve the ability of enterprises’ substantive green innovation to cope with climate policy changes. This paper not only deepens previous research but also provides richer empirical evidence for understanding the impact of CPU in developing countries. The findings are conducive to inspiring the formulation and adjustment of CPU and provide practical evidence for companies engaged in green innovation to mitigate climate-related risks.

Key words: Climate policy uncertainty (CPU), Financing constraints, Risk-taking level, Digital transformation, Green innovation

张娜, 孙妍雨, 赵晓军, 常思纯, 吴立言. 气候政策不确定性对企业绿色创新的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(5): 636-650.

ZHANG Na, SUN Yan-Yu, ZHAO Xiao-Jun, CHANG Si-Chun, WU Li-Yan. The impact of climate policy uncertainty on the green innovation of enterprises[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(5): 636-650.

图/表 10

表1 主要变量定义表

Table 1 Definition of key variables

表2 描述性统计

Table 2 Descriptive statistics

表3 变量基准回归检验结果

Table 3 Benchmark regression test results of variables

表4 稳健性检验结果

Table 4 Robustness test results

表5 内生性检验结果

Table 5 Endogeneity test results

表6 中介机制检验回归结果

Table 6 Regression analysis results of mediating mechanism test

表7 调节机制检验回归结果

Table 7 Regression analysis results of regulatory mechanism test

表8 基于所有权性质的异质性检验

Table 8 Heterogeneous based on ownership

表9 基于是否为能源企业的异质性检验

Table 9 Heterogeneous based on energy enterprises

表10 基于分析师关注度的异质性检验

Table 10 Heterogeneous based on analyst attention

参考文献 54

[1]	谷方杰, 张文锋. 省际视阈下中国“双碳”目标实现路径选择研究[J]. 中国软科学, 2023 (7): 215-224.
	Gu F J, Zhang W F. Study on the path selection of China’s “Double Carbon” goals from the provincial perspective[J]. China Soft Science, 2023 (7): 215-224 (in Chinese)
[2]	Sendstad L H, Chronopoulos M. Sequential investment in renewable energy technologies under policy uncertainty[J]. Energy Policy, 2020, 137: 111152
[3]	Persakis A. The impact of climate policy uncertainty on ESG performance, carbon emission intensity and firm performance: evidence from fortune 1000 firms[J]. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 2023: 1-51
[4]	Gao J, Zhang L. Climate policy uncertainty and corporate investment: evidence from the US tourism and hospitality sector[J]. Journal of Travel Research, 2024, 63 (2): 517-530
[5]	Jorgenson A K, Fiske S, Hubacek K, et al. Social science perspectives on drivers of and responses to global climate change[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2019, 10 (1): e554
[6]	Ramanathan R, Black A, Nath P, et al. Impact of environmental regulations on innovation and performance in the UK industrial sector[J]. Management Decision, 2010, 48 (10): 1493-1513
[7]	Rubashkina Y, Galeotti M, Verdolini E. Environmental regulation and competitiveness: empirical evidence on the Porter hypothesis from European manufacturing sectors[J]. Energy Policy, 2015, 83: 288-300
[8]	李文鸿, 曹万林. FDI、环境规制与区域绿色创新效率[J]. 统计与决策, 2020, 36 (19): 118-122.
	Li W H, Cao W L. FDI, environmental regulation and regional green innovation efficiency[J]. Statistics & Decision, 2020, 36 (19): 118-122 (in Chinese)
[9]	Hoang K. How does corporate R&D investment respond to climate policy uncertainty? Evidence from heavy emitter firms in the United States[J]. Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, 2022, 29 (4): 936-949
[10]	Bai D, Du L, Xu Y, et al. Climate policy uncertainty and corporate green innovation: evidence from Chinese A-share listed industrial corporations[J]. Energy Economics, 2023, 127: 107020
[11]	Liu Y, Wang A, Wu Y. Environmental regulation and green innovation: evidence from China’s new environmental protection law[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2021, 297: 126698
[12]	王馨, 王营. 绿色信贷政策增进绿色创新研究[J]. 管理世界, 2021, 37 (6): 11, 173-188.
	Wang X, Wang Y. Study on green credit policies for green innovation[J]. Journal of Management World, 2021, 37 (6): 11, 173-188 (in Chinese)
[13]	Amore M D, Bennedsen M. Corporate governance and green innovation[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2016, 75: 54-72
[14]	郭祥, 陈富永. 管理者短视对企业绿色创新产出的影响: 盈余管理和研发投入的中介作用[J]. 软科学, 2023, 37 (12): 122-128.
	Guo X, Chen F Y. The impact of managerial myopia on firms’ green innovation output: the mediating role of surplus management and R&D investment[J]. Soft Science, 2023, 37 (12): 122-128 (in Chinese)
[15]	Sun G, Fang J, Li T, et al. Effects of climate policy uncertainty on green innovation in Chinese enterprises[J]. International Review of Financial Analysis, 2024, 91: 102960
[16]	Xu Z. Economic policy uncertainty, cost of capital, and corporate innovation[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2020, 111: 105698
[17]	马正宇, 秦放鸣. 宏观金融网络中的气候政策冲击机制和效应分析[J]. 金融与经济, 2022 (4): 13-22.
	Ma Z Y, Qin F M. An analysis on the shock mechanism and effect of climate policy in macro-financial network[J]. Finance and Economy, 2022 (4): 13-22 (in Chinese)
[18]	张杰飞, 尚建华, 乔彬. 数字普惠金融对绿色创新效率的影响研究: 来自中国280个地级市的经验证据[J]. 经济问题, 2022 (11): 17-26.
	Zhang J F, Shang J H, Qiao B. Research on the impact of digital inclusive finance on green innovation efficiency: empirical evidence from 280 prefecture level cities in China[J]. On Economic Problems, 2022 (11): 17-26 (in Chinese)
[19]	Hsu P H, Li K, Tsou C Y. The pollution premium[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2023, 78 (3): 1343-1392
[20]	吴伟伟, 张天一. 非研发补贴与研发补贴对新创企业创新产出的非对称影响研究[J]. 管理世界, 2021, 37 (3): 10, 137-160.
	Wu W W, Zhang T Y. The asymmetric influence of non-R&D subsidies and R&D subsidies on innovation output of new ventures[J]. Journal of Management World, 2021, 37 (3): 10, 137-160 (in Chinese)
[21]	Lumpkin G T, Dess G G. Clarifying the entrepreneurial orientation construct and linking it to performance[J]. Academy of Management Review, 1996, 21 (1): 135-172
[22]	Amihud Y, Lev B. Risk reduction as a managerial motive for conglomerate mergers[J]. The Bell Journal of Economics, 1981: 605-617
[23]	Wen F, Li C, Sha H, et al. How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate risk-taking? Evidence from China[J]. Finance Research Letters, 2021, 41: 101840
[24]	刘柏, 卢家锐, 琚涛. 形式主义还是实质主义: ESG评级软监管下的绿色创新研究[J]. 南开管理评论, 2023, 26 (5): 16-28.
	Liu B, Lu J R, Ju T. Formalism or substantialism: research on green innovation under soft market supervision of ESG rating[J]. Nankai Business Review, 2023, 26 (5): 16-28 (in Chinese)
[25]	Hottenrott H, Rexh?user S. Policy-induced environmental technology and inventive efforts: is there a crowding out?[J]. Industry and Innovation, 2015, 22 (5): 375-401
[26]	Mao K, Huang J. How does climate policy uncertainty affect green innovation? Evidence from China[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2022, 19: 15745
[27]	郭景先, 鲁营. 科技金融有助于企业创新效率提升吗?兼论企业数字化转型的调节效应[J]. 南方金融, 2022 (9): 50-63.
	Guo J X, Lu Y. Does technology finance help enterprises improve innovation efficiency? With a comment on the moderating effect of enterprise digital transformation[J]. South China Finance, 2022 (9): 50-63 (in Chinese)
[28]	杜爽, 曹效喜. 企业数字化转型能否促进绿色创新: 来自中国上市公司的证据[J]. 中国地质大学学报(社会科学版), 2023, 23 (4): 56-71.
	Du S, Cao X X. Does digital transformation promote green innovation? Evidence from Chinese listed companies[J]. Journal of China University of Geosciences (Social Sciences Edition), 2023, 23 (4): 56-71 (in Chinese)
[29]	刘海曼, 龙建成, 申尊焕. 数字化转型对企业绿色创新的影响研究[J]. 科研管理, 2023, 44 (10): 22-34.
	Liu H M, Long J C, Shen Z H. Research on the impact of digital transformation on the green innovation of enterprises[J]. Science Research Management, 2023, 44 (10): 22-34 (in Chinese)
[30]	张泽南, 钱欣钰, 曹新伟. 企业数字化转型的绿色创新效应研究: 实质性创新还是策略性创新?[J]. 产业经济研究, 2023 (1): 86-100.
	Zhang Z N, Qian X Y, Cao X W. Research on the green innovation effect of enterprise digital transformation: substantive innovation or strategic innovation?[J]. Industrial Economics Research, 2023 (1): 86-100 (in Chinese)
[31]	徐佳, 崔静波. 低碳城市和企业绿色技术创新[J]. 中国工业经济, 2020 (12): 178-196.
	Xu J, Cui J B. Low-carbon cities and firms’ green technological innovation[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2020 (12): 178-196 (in Chinese)
[32]	Xu Y, Ge W, Liu G, et al. The Impact of local government competition and green technology innovation on economic low-carbon transition: new insights from China[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2023, 30 (9): 23714-23735
[33]	Gavriilidis K. Measuring climate policy uncertainty[J]. Social Science Research Network (SSRN), 2021: 3847388
[34]	陈国荣, 王苏萨, 邓晶, 等. 中国气候政策不确定性指数: 构建、分析与应用前景[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20 (3): 361-372.
	Chen G R, Wang S S, Deng J, et al. China climate policy uncertainty index: construction, analysis and application prospects[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20 (3): 361-372 (in Chinese)
[35]	Lee K, Cho J. Measuring Chinese climate uncertainty[J]. International Review of Economics & Finance, 2023, 88: 891-901
[36]	张韵晗, 郭琨, 姬强, 等. 气候冲击对中国大类资产收益的信息溢出研究[J]. 计量经济学报, 2023, 3 (2): 426-442. doi: 10.12012/CJoE2022-0125
	Zhang Y H, Guo K, Ji Q, et al. Information spillover effect of climate shocks on Chinese asset returns[J]. China Journal of Econometrics, 2023, 3 (2): 426-442 (in Chinese) doi: 10.12012/CJoE2022-0125
[37]	汪顺, 盛安琪, 金薇, 等. 气候政策不确定性下的企业ESG印象管理: 基于ESG文本语调的经验研究[J]. 财贸研究, 2023, 34 (9): 69-84.
	Wang S, Sheng A Q, Jin W, et al. Corporate ESG impression management under climate policy uncertainty: experiential evidence based on tone of ESG text[J]. Finance and Trade Research, 2023, 34 (9): 69-84 (in Chinese)
[38]	李青原, 肖泽华. 异质性环境规制工具与企业绿色创新激励: 来自上市企业绿色专利的证据[J]. 经济研究, 2020, 55 (9): 192-208.
	Li Q Y, Xiao Z H. Heterogeneous environmental regulation tools and green innovation incentives: evidence from green patents of listed companies[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2020, 55 (9): 192-208 (in Chinese)
[39]	丁杰, 李仲飞, 黄金波. 绿色信贷政策能够促进企业绿色创新吗?基于政策效应分化的视角[J]. 金融研究, 2022 (12): 55-73.
	Ding J, Li Z F, Huang J B. Can green credit policies promote enterprise green innovation? A policy effect differentiation perspective[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2022 (12): 55-73 (in Chinese)
[40]	郭晶, 雍志婷. 气候政策不确定性与企业绿色创新: 基于新闻媒体文本分析方法的测度[J]. 金融与经济, 2023 (9): 75-86.
	Guo J, Yong Z T. Climate policy uncertainty and corporate green innovation: measurement based on the text analysis method of news media[J]. Finance and Economy, 2023 (9): 75-86 (in Chinese)
[41]	魏志华, 曾爱民, 李博. 金融生态环境与企业融资约束: 基于中国上市公司的实证研究[J]. 会计研究, 2014 (5): 73-80, 95.
	Wei Z H, Zeng A M, Li B. Financial ecological environment and corporate financial constraints: evidence from Chinese listed firms[J]. Accounting Research, 2014 (5): 73-80, 95 (in Chinese)
[42]	邢霂, 陈东, 张红梅. 环境不确定性对企业绿色创新的影响[J]. 科技管理研究, 2023, 43 (10): 207-215.
	Xing M, Chen D, Zhang H M. Impact of environmental uncertainty on corporate green innovation[J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 2023, 43 (10): 207-215 (in Chinese)
[43]	余明桂, 李文贵, 潘红波. 管理者过度自信与企业风险承担[J]. 金融研究, 2013 (1): 149-163.
	Yu M G, Li W G, Pan H B. Managerial overconfidence and corporate risk-taking[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2013 (1): 149-163 (in Chinese)
[44]	宋建波, 文雯, 王德宏. 海归高管能促进企业风险承担吗: 来自中国A股上市公司的经验证据[J]. 财贸经济, 2017, 38 (12): 111-126.
	Song J B, Wen W, Wang D H. Can returnee managers promote corporate risk-taking: evidence from Chinese A share companies[J]. Finance & Trade Economics, 2017, 38 (12): 111-126 (in Chinese)
[45]	温忠麟, 叶宝娟. 中介效应分析: 方法和模型发展[J]. 心理科学进展, 2014, 22 (5): 731-745. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2014.00731
	Wen Z L, Ye B J. Mediation effects analysis: methodology and model development[J]. Advances in Psychological Science, 2014, 22 (5): 731-745 (in Chinese)
[46]	Coles J L, Daniel N D, Naveen L. Managerial incentives and risk-taking[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2006, 79 (2): 431-468
[47]	程振, 赵振智, 吕德胜. 绿色信贷、企业风险承担与企业绿色创新: “波特效应”的中国证据[J]. 技术经济与管理研究, 2022 (10): 68-74.
	Cheng Z, Zhao Z Z, Lyu D S. Green credit, enterprise risk bearing and enterprise green innovation: the Chinese evidence of “Porter Effect”[J]. Journal of Technical Economics & Management, 2022 (10): 68-74 (in Chinese)
[48]	祁怀锦, 曹修琴, 刘艳霞. 数字经济对公司治理的影响: 基于信息不对称和管理者非理性行为视角[J]. 改革, 2020 (4): 50-64.
	Qi H J, Cao X Q, Liu Y X. The influence of digital economy on corporate governance: analyzed from information asymmetry and irrational behavior perspective[J]. Reform, 2020 (4): 50-64 (in Chinese)
[49]	王旭, 杨有德. 企业绿色技术创新的动态演进: 资源捕获还是价值创造[J]. 财经科学, 2018 (12): 53-66.
	Wang X, Yang Y D. Dynamic evolution of business green technological innovation: resource capturing or value creation[J]. Finance & Economics, 2018 (12): 53-66 (in Chinese)
[50]	戚聿东, 肖旭. 数字经济时代的企业管理变革[J]. 管理世界, 2020, 36 (6): 135-152, 250.
	Qi Y D, Xiao X. Transformation of enterprise management in the era of digital economy[J]. Journal of Management World, 2020, 36 (6): 135-152, 250 (in Chinese)
[51]	巴曙松, 李妮娜, 张兢. 数字金融与企业绿色创新: 排斥还是融合?[J]. 财经问题研究, 2022 (12): 57-68.
	Ba S S, Li N N, Zhang J. Digital finance and corporate green innovation: exclusion or integration?[J]. Research on Financial and Economic Issues, 2022 (12): 57-68 (in Chinese)
[52]	任曙明, 吕镯. 融资约束、政府补贴与全要素生产率: 来自中国装备制造企业的实证研究[J]. 管理世界, 2014 (11): 10-23, 187.
	Ren S M, Lyu Z. The financial constraints, the government subsidies and the factor productivity: a case study on the equipment manufacturing enterprises in China[J]. Journal of Management World, 2014 (11): 10-23, 187 (in Chinese)
[53]	Yuan B, Cao X. Do corporate social responsibility practices contribute to green innovation? The mediating role of green dynamic capability[J]. Technology in Society, 2022, 68: 101868
[54]	胡楠, 薛付婧, 王昊楠. 管理者短视主义影响企业长期投资吗? 基于文本分析和机器学习[J]. 管理世界, 2021, 37 (5): 11, 19-21, 139-156.
	Hu N, Xue F J, Wang H N. Does managerial myopia affect long-term investment? Based on text analysis and machine learning[J]. Journal of Management World, 2021, 37 (5): 11, 19-21, 139-156 (in Chinese)