发电结构对高铁运行阶段碳排放因子的影响

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.093

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

高铁运行阶段直接产生的CO₂排放微乎其微，但因列车运行需要电力牵引，上游发电端带来的碳排放不可忽视。文中综合考虑了发电结构以及不同发电方式的碳排放水平，将高铁运行阶段碳排放因子作为高铁环保程度的评估指标。测算结果表明，2018、2019年我国高铁运行阶段碳排放因子水平为27.19、27.09 g CO₂/(人·km)。考虑发电端碳排放的高铁运输方式相较于公路、民航客运仍具有显著的环保优势，但发电结构中火电占比偏高导致我国高铁碳排放因子水平高于法国、德国、日本等发达国家。结合我国未来年发电结构的预测，当各发电方式碳排放水平较现状波动不大时，2030、2050年我国高铁运行阶段碳排放因子水平分别为10.87~14.18、2.83~9.49 g CO₂/(人·km)，分别比高铁列车运输能力利用率较高的2019年降低了47.66%~59.87%、64.97%~89.55%。煤电碳排放因子下降时将实现高铁碳排放因子的同步下降，故推进煤电低碳化生产，高效应用煤电清洁生产新技术，有望进一步提升高铁低碳优势。研究成果将促进交通运输行业与能源行业相互协作，助推“双碳”战略实施。

关键词: 高速铁路运输, 运行阶段, 碳排放因子, 发电结构

Abstract:

The direct carbon dioxide emissions generated during the operation phase of high-speed railway transportation are minimal. However, the carbon emissions from electricity generation, required to power the trains, cannot be overlooked. This paper comprehensively considers the power generation structure and the carbon emissions levels of different power generation methods. It uses the carbon emission factor during the operation phase of high-speed railway transportation as an assessment indicator of its environmental friendliness. The results indicate that in 2018 and 2019, the carbon emission factors during the operation phase of high-speed railway transportation in China were 27.19 and 27.09 g CO₂ per passenger-kilometer, respectively. High-speed railway transportation has more advantages in terms of low carbon than road and civil aviation. Besides, the high proportion of coal-fired power generation in China’s power structure results in higher carbon emission factors compared to developed countries such as France, Germany, and Japan. By combining predictions of China’s future power generation structure, when the carbon emission factors of each power generation mode remain unchanged, it is estimated that by 2030 and 2050, the carbon emission factors during the operation phase of high-speed railway transportation in China will be 10.87-14.18 and 2.83-9.49 g CO₂ per passenger-kilometer respectively, representing a reduction of 47.66%-59.87% and 64.97%-89.55% compared to 2019. Reducing coal-power carbon emission factor will synchronize with carbon diminution of high-speed railway. Promoting low-carbon production of coal-power and efficiently applying new technologies for clean production are expected to further enhance the low-carbon advantages of high-speed railway transportation. The research results promote the cooperation between transportation industry and energy industry, and boost the “dual carbon” goals.

Key words: High-speed railway transportation, Operation period, Carbon emission factor, Power generation structure

童瑞咏, 魏润斌, 吴金燕, 毛保华, 田佩宁. 发电结构对高铁运行阶段碳排放因子的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(1): 116-124.

TONG Rui-Yong, WEI Run-Bin, WU Jin-Yan, MAO Bao-Hua, TIAN Pei-Ning. Influence of power generation structure on carbon emission factor of high-speed railway in operation period[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(1): 116-124.

图/表 6

表1 2018、2019年我国各发电方式的占比

Table 1 The proportion of power generation in 2018 and 2019 %

表2 各发电方式全生命周期碳排放因子

Table 2 Full life cycle carbon emission factors of each power generation g CO2 /(kW?h)

表3 世界不同地区高铁碳排放因子

Table 3 Carbon emission factors of high-speed rail in different regions of the world

图1 中国未来发电结构的预测[36?-38]

Fig. 1 Forecast of China’s future power generation structure[36?-38]

表4 未来高铁运行碳排放因子测算结果

Table 4 Calculation results of carbon emission factors during high-speed rail operation period in future

图2 煤电碳排放因子变化的影响

Fig. 2 The impact of different carbon emission factors of coal-power

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