基于实物期权法的航空公司减排投资策略研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.260

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

民航绿色发展是推进中国民航高质量发展的内在要求，是提高我国民航业供给竞争力的重要体现之一。中国民航市场需求潜力巨大，随着市场的恢复，能源消费和二氧化碳排放将刚性增长。在民航业关注的减排技术或措施中，与飞机及发动机技术改进、航班地面与空中运行水平提升以及市场机制等减排措施相比，可持续航空燃油的使用减排潜力巨大，但投资及成本高昂。文章从航空公司的角度出发，采用实物期权方法构建了减排投资价值模型，重点讨论了可持续航空燃油投资策略，包括投资阈值、投资时点、掺混比例、最优投资条件等，分析市场机制、燃油成本等不确定性因素对航空公司减排投资行为的影响，并提出航空公司开展减排投资时需要重点关注的碳排放约束下激励投资的条件以及使用何种掺混比例等问题，为航空公司减排策略、政府相关政策的制定提供一定参考。

关键词: 减排投资, 可持续航空燃油（SAF）, 碳排放限制, 实物期权

Abstract:

The green development of civil aviation is the inherent requirement of promoting the high-quality development of China’s civil aviation, and is one of the important manifestations of improving the supply competitiveness of China’s civil aviation industry. China’s civil aviation market has huge demand potential. With the recovery of the market, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions will grow rigidly. Among the emission reduction technologies or measures concerned by the civil aviation industry, the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has huge potential for emission reduction compared with the emission reduction measures such as aircraft and engine technology improvement, flight ground and air operation improvement and market mechanism, but the investment and cost are high. From the perspective of airlines, this paper constructs a model of emission reduction investment value using real option method, focuses on SAF investment strategies, including investment threshold, investment time, blending ratio, optimal investment conditions, etc., and analyzes the impact of market mechanism, fuel cost and other uncertain factors on the emission reduction investment behavior of airlines. It also puts forward the conditions for encouraging investment under carbon emission constraints and the mixing proportion to be used when airlines carry out emission reduction investment, which will provide some reference for the formulation of emission reduction strategies of airlines and relevant government policies.

Key words: Emission reduction investment, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), Carbon emission limitation, Real options

陈俣秀, 王超彬, 于剑. 基于实物期权法的航空公司减排投资策略研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(4): 483-495.

CHEN Yu-Xiu, WANG Chao-Bin, YU Jian. Research on the investment strategy of airline emission reduction based on real option method[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(4): 483-495.

图/表 8

表1 模型参数设置

Table 1 Parameters of model

图1 投资阈值随碳价波动率、SAF成本的变化情况

Fig. 1 Change of investment threshold with carbon price volatility and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) cost

图2 不同减排投资成本下，投资阈值随碳价波动率的变化情况

Fig. 2 Change of investment threshold with carbon price volatility under different emission reduction investment costs

图3 最优投资时点与碳价的关系

Fig. 3 The relationship between optimal investment time and carbon price

图4 最优投资时点与SAF价格的关系

Fig. 4 The relationship between the optimal investment time point and the SAF price

图5 掺混比例与减排量的关系

Fig. 5 Relationship between blending ratio and emission reduction

图6 投资阈值与SAF掺混比例的关系

Fig. 6 Relationship between investment threshold and blending ratio of SAF

图7 最优投资时点与SAF掺混比例的关系

Fig. 7 The relationship between the optimal investment time point and the blending ratio of SAF

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