气候变化研究进展 ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (4): 455-465.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.222
刘远1,2, 王芳1,2, 张正涛1,2(), 黄承芳1,2, 陈曦1,2, 李宁1,2
收稿日期:
2020-09-22
修回日期:
2020-10-23
出版日期:
2021-07-30
发布日期:
2021-08-11
通讯作者:
张正涛
作者简介:
刘远,男,博士研究生
基金资助:
LIU Yuan1,2, WANG Fang1,2, ZHANG Zheng-Tao1,2(), HUANG Cheng-Fang1,2, CHEN Xi1,2, LI Ning1,2
Received:
2020-09-22
Revised:
2020-10-23
Online:
2021-07-30
Published:
2021-08-11
Contact:
ZHANG Zheng-Tao
摘要:
农业作为响应气候变化最敏感的领域之一,未来作物产量可能受到深刻影响。量化气候变化冲击作物产量导致的最终经济影响,需要综合“气候变化—作物产量—经济影响”开展链式研究。文中采用系统回顾和Meta回归分析方法整合了55篇文献的667项研究结果,推导出我国七大地区主要作物(水稻、玉米、小麦)产量与地区内未来温度和降水变化的定量关系,并将其作为农业部门的损失量代入改进的多区域投入产出模型,量化七大地区内与地区间遭受的经济波及影响(ERE)。结果显示:(1)气候变化对我国作物产量的影响主要体现在温度升高上,每升温1℃减产2.6%~12.7%,东北和西北地区作物受升温影响最显著;(2) 气候变化导致的作物减产将对经济产生更严重的波及影响,GDP因作物减产每下降1%将额外产生17.8%的波及影响;(3) 21世纪末,若不考虑CO2肥效作用,作物减产导致的ERE将占GDP的-0.1%~13.6%(负值表示收益),最悲观情况下ERE与当前我国农业总产值相当(2012年为基准年);(4)不同地区受ERE影响程度的差异较大,因各区之间产业结构、贸易联系及经济发展程度存在差异,西南地区遭受本区及来自其他地区的ERE比华东地区高2.8~8.5倍。
刘远, 王芳, 张正涛, 黄承芳, 陈曦, 李宁. 中国七大地区“气候变化—作物产量—经济影响”综合评价[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(4): 455-465.
LIU Yuan, WANG Fang, ZHANG Zheng-Tao, HUANG Cheng-Fang, CHEN Xi, LI Ning. Comprehensive assessment of “climate change-crop yield-economic impact” in seven sub-regions of China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(4): 455-465.
图1 我国七大地区温度变化和降水变化率与作物产量变化率的关系 注:直线表示回归方程,虚线表示通过95%信度检验区间。
Fig. 1 The relationship between temperature change and precipitation change rate and crop yield change rate in seven sub-regions of China (The curves represent 95% confidence levels)
图2 RCP8.5情景下我国不同地区农作物单产的变化趋势 注:阴影部分表示通过95%的信度区间。
Fig. 2 The trend of crop yield change in different sub-regions of China under RCP8.5 (The curves represent 95% confidence levels)
图3 2020—2099年气候变化冲击我国作物生产造成的ERE预估值 注:阴影部分表示通过95%的信度区间。
Fig. 3 The estimation of economic ripple effects (ERE) caused by the impact of climate change on crop production in China from 2020 to 2099 (The shaded areas represent the 95% confidence levels)
图4 2020—2099年气候变化冲击我国不同地区作物生产造成的ERE预估值
Fig. 4 The estimation of ERE caused by the impact of climate change on grain production in different sub-regions of China from 2020 to 2099
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