一组RegCM4动力降尺度对中国群发性高温事件的模拟评估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.226

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (6): 657-666.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.226

• 气候系统变化 • 下一篇

一组RegCM4动力降尺度对中国群发性高温事件的模拟评估

程阳¹^,³(), 周波涛²^,³(), 韩振宇⁴, 徐影⁴

1 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,成都 610225
2 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室,南京 210044
3 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京 210044
4 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081

收稿日期:2019-09-25 修回日期:2019-12-03 出版日期:2020-11-30 发布日期:2020-12-03
通讯作者: 周波涛
作者简介:程阳,女,硕士研究生,chengyang199102@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2018YFA0606301);国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0600701);国家自然科学基金(41991280);南京信息工程大学人才启动经费(2018r060)

Evaluation of multi-RegCM4 dynamical downscaling simulations on cluster high temperature events in China

CHENG Yang¹^,³(), ZHOU Bo-Tao²^,³(), HAN Zhen-Yu⁴, XU Ying⁴

1 School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China
2 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
3 School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
4 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2019-09-25 Revised:2019-12-03 Online:2020-11-30 Published:2020-12-03
Contact: ZHOU Bo-Tao

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于高分辨率格点数据集CN05.1和区域气候模式RegCM4对4个全球气候模式动力降尺度模拟（CdR、EdR、HdR、MdR）,识别了观测和模拟的1981—2005年中国群发性高温事件（CHTE）。在此基础上,评估了模式对中国CHTE的模拟能力。结果表明：4个动力降尺度模拟以及多模式集合（MME）均能很好地模拟出中国CHTE频次、持续时间和累计强度的空间分布。不过,HdR模拟的CHTE发生次数在新疆地区略偏少,而其他3个模拟试验的CHTE次数在中国东南部略偏多。观测中CHTE持续时间、极端强度、累计强度、最大影响面积、平均影响面积、综合强度等的频率分布规律均能被合理再现。MME也能很好模拟观测揭示的CHTE综合强度以及频次、持续时间、强度、影响面积等单项指标的上升趋势。单模式成员亦可再现大多数指标的上升趋势,但也存在一定不足,如EdR模拟的CHTE综合强度呈减弱趋势,MdR模拟的CHTE频次和极端强度呈弱的下降趋势。

关键词: 群发性高温事件（CHTE）, 区域气候模式, 动力降尺度, 模拟评估

Abstract:

Based on the high-resolution grid observation dataset CN05.1 and the regional climate model RegCM4 dynamical downscaling simulations (i.e., CdR, EdR, HdR, and MdR), the cluster high temperature events (CHTE) occurring in China during 1981-2005 were identified using a simplified objective method. Then, the performance of the RegCM4 dynamical downscaling simulations on the CHTE in China was evaluated through the comparison with the observation. The results indicate that the four RegCM4 simulations and their ensemble mean (MME) can reproduce the observed climatological distribution of the frequency, duration and cumulative intensity of the CHTE in China. However, the frequency of the CHTE in Xinjiang is slightly underestimated by the HdR simulation while that in southeastern China is slightly overestimated by the CdR, EdR and MdR simulations. The characteristics of the probability in duration, extreme intensity, cumulative intensity, maximum influential area, average influential area, and comprehensive intensity for the CHTE can also be reasonably captured by the MME and its ensemble members. In addition, the MME simulates an upward trend, which is consistent with the observation, in the comprehensive intensity index and the individual indices of the CHTE in China. The individual simulations can also reproduce the upward trend for most of the indices. However, some deficits are also found. For instance, the EdR simulation produces a downward trend for the comprehensive intensity of the CHTE, and the MdR simulation shows a weak downward trend for the frequency and extreme intensity of the CHTE.

Key words: Cluster high temperature event (CHTE), Regional climate model, Dynamical downscaling, Model evaluation

程阳, 周波涛, 韩振宇, 徐影. 一组RegCM4动力降尺度对中国群发性高温事件的模拟评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(6): 657-666.

CHENG Yang, ZHOU Bo-Tao, HAN Zhen-Yu, XU Ying. Evaluation of multi-RegCM4 dynamical downscaling simulations on cluster high temperature events in China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(6): 657-666.

图/表 8

表1 1981—2005年中国群发性高温事件频次

Table 1 Frequency of the cluster high temperature events in China during 1981-2005

图1 1981—2005年中国群发性高温事件发生月份的频率分布

Fig. 1 Percentage of the frequency of cluster high temperature events in China in each month to the total events during 1981-2005

图2 1981—2005年平均的中国群发性高温事件频次的空间分布

Fig. 2 Climatological distribution of the frequency of cluster high temperature events during 1981-2005

图3 1981—2005年平均的中国群发性高温事件的持续时间和累计强度空间分布

Fig. 3 Climatological distribution of the duration and cumulative intensity of cluster high temperature events during 1981-2005

表2 1981—2005年观测和模拟的中国群发性高温事件指标的气候平均值

Table 2 Climate mean of each index for observed and simulated cluster high temperature events in China during 1981-2005

表3 1981—2005年观测和模拟的中国群发性高温事件各指标变化趋势

Table 3 Trends of each index for observed and simulated cluster high temperature events in China during 1981-2005

图4 1981—2005年模拟和观测的中国群发性高温事件各指标频率占比分布

Fig. 4 Frequency percentage distributions of the indices for all cluster high temperature events in China during 1981-2005

表4 1981—2005年模拟的中国群发性高温事件各指标频率的均方根误差（E）和S评分

Table 4 Statistics of the root mean square error (E) and S score for the simulated indices of the cluster high temperature events in China during 1981-2005

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一组RegCM4动力降尺度对中国群发性高温事件的模拟评估

Evaluation of multi-RegCM4 dynamical downscaling simulations on cluster high temperature events in China

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